Ecuadorian Liga Pro· Kick-off : Saturday, October 10, 2026, 17:30 (UK time)
Independiente del Valle vs Aucas prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Independiente del Valle take on Aucas on Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 17:30 (UK time), a Ecuadorian Liga Pro fixture. Venue: Estadio Banco Guayaquil, Quito. Our model makes Independiente del Valle clear favourites: a 66% chance of winning, against 20% for the draw and 14% for Aucas. On the correct score, 2-0 comes out on top (12.0%), followed by 1-0 (11.7%) and 2-1 (9.7%).
Over their last 5 matches, Independiente del Valle have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 9 and conceding 6. Aucas have won just one of their last 5 matches (3 draws, 1 defeat), scoring 4 and conceding 4. Independiente del Valle therefore arrive in far better shape than Aucas. On average Independiente del Valle score 1.80 and concede 1.20 goals per game; Aucas score 0.80 and concede 0.80. In the table, Independiente del Valle sit 1st with 74 points from 30 games, Aucas 4th with 50 points from 31. The two teams are close in the standings.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Independiente del Valle, 0 for Aucas and 1 draw. The most recent ended Aucas 0-3 Independiente del Valle (Jul 16, 2026). In double chance terms, "Independiente del Valle or draw" stands at 86%, "Aucas or draw" at 34% and "no draw" at 80%.
In short : Independiente del Valle are favourites for this Independiente del Valle v Aucas, with a 66% win probability from our model. On recent form, Independiente del Valle have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in 5 while Aucas have 1 win, 3 draws and 1 loss in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 2-0.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Independiente del Valle – Aucas. 2-0 is the single most likely scoreline (12.0%); the 5 scores below add up to 51% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Independiente del Valle 2-0 Aucas | 12.0% |
| Independiente del Valle 1-0 Aucas | 11.7% |
| Independiente del Valle 2-1 Aucas | 9.7% |
| Independiente del Valle 1-1 Aucas | 9.5% |
| Independiente del Valle 3-0 Aucas | 8.2% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 2.05 expected goals for Independiente del Valle and 0.81 for Aucas, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 55% and "both teams to score" at 48%. Independiente del Valle keep a clean sheet in 45% of scenarios, Aucas in 13%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Independiente del Valle expected goals | 2.05 |
| Aucas expected goals | 0.81 |
| Both teams to score | 48% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% |
| Independiente del Valle clean sheet | 45% |
| Aucas clean sheet | 13% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Independiente del Valle
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 25, 2026 | Gualaceo SC · Copa Ecuador | 2-0 | W |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Flamengo · CONMEBOL Libertadores | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Libertad · Ecuadorian Liga Pro | 3-2 | W |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Flamengo · CONMEBOL Libertadores | 0-2 | L |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Macara · Ecuadorian Liga Pro | 3-1 | W |
Aucas
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Macara · Ecuadorian Liga Pro | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Manta FC · Ecuadorian Liga Pro | 0-0 | D |
| Sep 7, 2026 | Barcelona SC · Ecuadorian Liga Pro | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 3, 2026 | Universidad Catolica · Ecuadorian Liga Pro | 1-1 | D |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Libertad · Ecuadorian Liga Pro | 1-0 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Independiente del Valle | 1 | 74 | 30 |
| Aucas | 4 | 50 | 31 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 16, 2026 | Aucas 0-3 Independiente del Valle | Ecuadorian Liga Pro |
| Mar 14, 2026 | Independiente del Valle 2-2 Aucas | Ecuadorian Liga Pro |
Out and doubtful
Independiente del Valle
No absences reported.
Aucas
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Independiente del Valle
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Quintana4/5
- D. Reasco3/5
- J. Sornoza3/5
- L. Loor3/5
- M. Carabajal3/5
- M. Perello3/5
- R. Briones3/5
- R. Schunke3/5
- A. Velasco2/5
- Daykol Alejandro Romero Padilla2/5
- E. Quintero2/5
Aucas
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- L. Gustavino5/5
- P. Guzman5/5
- R. Quinonez5/5
- A. L. Spina4/5
- A. Mena4/5
- A. Zova4/5
- H. Piedra4/5
- M. Burdisso4/5
- S. Tapiero4/5
- S. Morales3/5
- C. Zambrano2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
- Libertad – Leones del NorteOct 9, 2026
- Delfin SC – Mushuc Runa SCOct 9, 2026
- Manta FC – Tecnico UniversitarioOct 10, 2026
- Guayaquil City FC – EmelecOct 10, 2026
- Universidad Catolica – MacaraOct 11, 2026
- Orense SC – Deportivo CuencaOct 11, 2026
- LDU de Quito – Barcelona SCOct 11, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Independiente del Valle vs Aucas prediction?
Our AI gives Independiente del Valle a 66% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Aucas 14%. Independiente del Valle are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Independiente del Valle vs Aucas?
2-0 (12.0%), followed by 1-0 (11.7%), 2-1 (9.7%), 1-1 (9.5%) and 3-0 (8.2%).
Will both teams score in Independiente del Valle vs Aucas?
The probability that both Independiente del Valle and Aucas score is 48%. Independiente del Valle have a 45% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Aucas 13%.
How many goals should we expect in Independiente del Valle vs Aucas?
The model expects 2.86 goals (2.05 for Independiente del Valle, 0.81 for Aucas). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 78%, over 2.5 goals 55%, over 3.5 goals 32%.
When and where is Independiente del Valle vs Aucas played?
Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 17:30 (UK time), Ecuadorian Liga Pro. Venue: Estadio Banco Guayaquil, Quito.
What form are Independiente del Valle and Aucas in?
Independiente del Valle: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 6 conceded). Aucas: 1 win, 3 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 4 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Independiente del Valle and Aucas?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Independiente del Valle, 0 for Aucas and 1 draw. The most recent ended Aucas 0-3 Independiente del Valle (Jul 16, 2026).
How is the Independiente del Valle vs Aucas prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.05 for Independiente del Valle, 0.81 for Aucas) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Independiente del Valle predictions
- All Aucas predictions
- Ecuadorian Liga Pro predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology