Ligue 1· Kick-off : Sunday, October 18, 2026, 14:00 (UK time)
Angers vs Marseille prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Angers take on Marseille on Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 14:00 (UK time), a Ligue 1, matchday 7 fixture. Venue: Stade Raymond-Kopa, Angers. Our model makes Angers clear favourites: a 79% chance of winning, against 13% for the draw and 8% for Marseille. On the correct score, 2-0 comes out on top (9.9%), followed by 3-0 (9.5%) and 2-1 (8.5%).
Over their last 5 matches, Angers have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 6 and conceding 5. Marseille have not won any of their last 5 matches (0 draws, 5 defeats), scoring 4 and conceding 12. Angers therefore arrive in far better shape than Marseille. On average Angers score 1.20 and concede 1.00 goals per game; Marseille score 0.80 and concede 2.40. In the table, Angers sit 7th with 7 points from 5 games, Marseille 17th with 3 points from 5. 10 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Angers have averaged 1.77 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.40 for Marseille.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Angers, 3 for Marseille and 2 draws. The most recent ended Angers 2-5 Marseille (Jan 17, 2026). In double chance terms, "Angers or draw" stands at 92%, "Marseille or draw" at 21% and "no draw" at 87%.
In short : Angers are tipped by our AI model in this Angers v Marseille (79%). On recent form, Angers have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in 5 while Marseille are struggling (5 losses in 5). Our model's most likely scoreline: 2-0.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Angers – Marseille. 2-0 is the single most likely scoreline (9.9%); the 5 scores below add up to 43% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Angers 2-0 Marseille | 9.9% |
| Angers 3-0 Marseille | 9.5% |
| Angers 2-1 Marseille | 8.5% |
| Angers 3-1 Marseille | 8.1% |
| Angers 1-0 Marseille | 6.8% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 2.88 expected goals for Angers and 0.86 for Marseille, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 72% and "both teams to score" at 54%. Goals look likely in this one. Angers keep a clean sheet in 42% of scenarios, Marseille in 6%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Angers expected goals | 2.88 |
| Marseille expected goals | 0.86 |
| Both teams to score | 54% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 89% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 72% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 51% |
| Angers clean sheet | 42% |
| Marseille clean sheet | 6% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Angers
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Estac Troyes · Ligue 1 | 2-0 | W |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Le Havre · Ligue 1 | 0-0 | D |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Rennes · Ligue 1 | 1-2 | L |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Auxerre · Ligue 1 | 3-1 | W |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Lille · Ligue 1 | 0-2 | L |
Marseille
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Paris Saint Germain · Ligue 1 | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Beşiktaş · UEFA Europa League | 1-4 | L |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Rennes · Ligue 1 | 0-1 | L |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Paris FC · Ligue 1 | 2-3 | L |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Monaco · Ligue 1 | 0-2 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Angers | 7 | 7 | 5 |
| Marseille | 17 | 3 | 5 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2026 | Angers 2-5 Marseille | Ligue 1 |
| Oct 29, 2025 | Marseille 2-2 Angers | Ligue 1 |
| Feb 9, 2025 | Angers 0-2 Marseille | Ligue 1 |
| Oct 4, 2024 | Marseille 1-1 Angers | Ligue 1 |
| May 14, 2023 | Marseille 3-1 Angers | Ligue 1 |
Out and doubtful
Angers
No absences reported.
Marseille
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Angers
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Anthony Lopes5/5
- Amine El Ouazzani4/5
- Amine Sbai4/5
- Branco Van den Boomen4/5
- Jim Allevinah4/5
- Jordan Lefort4/5
- Ousmane Camara4/5
- Yassin Belkhdim4/5
- Anthony Bermont3/5
- Carlens Arcus3/5
- Joseph Kalulu3/5
Marseille
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Emerson4/5
- Amine Gouiri3/5
- Amine Harit3/5
- Angel Gomes3/5
- Conrad Jaden Egan-Riley3/5
- Himad Abdelli3/5
- Igor Paixão3/5
- Jeffrey De Lange3/5
- Pierre-Emile Højbjerg3/5
- Timothy Weah3/5
- A. Harit2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
- Le Mans – ToulouseOct 16, 2026
- Strasbourg – Paris Saint GermainOct 17, 2026
- Estac Troyes – LensOct 17, 2026
- Lille – Stade Brestois 29Oct 17, 2026
- Paris FC – RennesOct 18, 2026
- Le Havre – AuxerreOct 18, 2026
- Lorient – MonacoOct 18, 2026
- Lyon – NiceOct 18, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Angers vs Marseille prediction?
Our AI gives Angers a 79% chance of winning, the draw 13% and Marseille 8%. Angers are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Angers vs Marseille?
2-0 (9.9%), followed by 3-0 (9.5%), 2-1 (8.5%), 3-1 (8.1%) and 1-0 (6.8%).
Will both teams score in Angers vs Marseille?
The probability that both Angers and Marseille score is 54%. Angers have a 42% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Marseille 6%.
How many goals should we expect in Angers vs Marseille?
The model expects 3.74 goals (2.88 for Angers, 0.86 for Marseille). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 89%, over 2.5 goals 72%, over 3.5 goals 51%.
When and where is Angers vs Marseille played?
Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 14:00 (UK time), Ligue 1, matchday 7. Venue: Stade Raymond-Kopa, Angers.
What form are Angers and Marseille in?
Angers: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 5 conceded). Marseille: 0 wins, 0 draws and 5 defeats in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 12 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Angers and Marseille?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Angers, 3 for Marseille and 2 draws. The most recent ended Angers 2-5 Marseille (Jan 17, 2026).
How is the Angers vs Marseille prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.88 for Angers, 0.86 for Marseille) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Angers predictions
- All Marseille predictions
- Ligue 1 predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology