Ligue 1· Kick-off : Saturday, October 17, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)
Estac Troyes vs Lens prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Estac Troyes take on Lens on Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), a Ligue 1, matchday 7 fixture. Venue: Stade de l'Aube, Troyes. Estac Troyes start as favourites with a 52% chance of victory; Lens are given 26% and the draw 22%. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (9.7%), followed by 2-1 (9.5%) and 1-0 (7.4%).
Estac Troyes have won just one of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 3 defeats), scoring 6 and conceding 13. Over their last 5 matches, Lens have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 8 and conceding 7. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Estac Troyes score 1.20 and concede 2.60 goals per game; Lens score 1.60 and concede 1.40. In the table, Estac Troyes sit 16th with 4 points from 5 games, Lens 15th with 4 points from 5. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Estac Troyes have averaged 1.81 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.43 for Lens.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Estac Troyes, 4 for Lens and 1 draw. The most recent ended Estac Troyes 2-4 Lens (Feb 4, 2026). Lens: M. Nawrocki, A. Sima, S. Baidoo (doubtful), J. Chavez (doubtful) and A. Haidara (doubtful). In double chance terms, "Estac Troyes or draw" stands at 74%, "Lens or draw" at 48% and "no draw" at 78%.
In short : Our model backs Estac Troyes to edge Lens (52% probability). In the table, Estac Troyes (16th, 4 pts) host Lens (15th, 4 pts). The model expects goals (over 2.5 at 64%).
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Estac Troyes – Lens. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (9.7%); the 5 scores below add up to 40% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Estac Troyes 1-1 Lens | 9.7% |
| Estac Troyes 2-1 Lens | 9.5% |
| Estac Troyes 1-0 Lens | 7.4% |
| Estac Troyes 2-0 Lens | 7.2% |
| Estac Troyes 1-2 Lens | 6.4% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.96 expected goals for Estac Troyes and 1.32 for Lens, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 64% and "both teams to score" at 63%. Goals look likely in this one. Estac Troyes keep a clean sheet in 27% of scenarios, Lens in 14%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Estac Troyes expected goals | 1.96 |
| Lens expected goals | 1.32 |
| Both teams to score | 63% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42% |
| Estac Troyes clean sheet | 27% |
| Lens clean sheet | 14% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Estac Troyes
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 2026 | Dijon · Club Friendlies | 2-2 | D |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Angers · Ligue 1 | 0-2 | L |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Lille · Ligue 1 | 0-2 | L |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Strasbourg · Ligue 1 | 2-6 | L |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Lorient · Ligue 1 | 2-1 | W |
Lens
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 2026 | Standard Liege · Club Friendlies | 2-0 | W |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Monaco · Ligue 1 | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Le Mans · Ligue 1 | 2-2 | D |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Slavia Praha · UEFA Champions League | 3-2 | W |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Lorient · Ligue 1 | 0-1 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Estac Troyes | 16 | 4 | 5 |
| Lens | 15 | 4 | 5 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 4, 2026 | Estac Troyes 2-4 Lens | Coupe de France |
| Jan 28, 2023 | Estac Troyes 1-1 Lens | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 9, 2022 | Lens 1-0 Estac Troyes | Ligue 1 |
| May 14, 2022 | Estac Troyes 1-3 Lens | Ligue 1 |
| Nov 5, 2021 | Lens 4-0 Estac Troyes | Ligue 1 |
Out and doubtful
Estac Troyes
No absences reported.
Lens
- M. Nawrocki (out)
- A. Sima (out)
- S. Baidoo (doubtful)
- J. Chavez (doubtful)
- A. Haidara (doubtful)
Most regular starters
Estac Troyes
Starts over the last 4 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Mille4/4
- A. Monfray4/4
- A. Ouzenadji4/4
- J. M. Diaz4/4
- M. Diop4/4
- P. Beach4/4
- D. Karim3/4
- H. Picard3/4
- L. Maronnier3/4
- I. Gomis2/4
- J. Le Douaron2/4
Lens
Starts over the last 4 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Sima4/4
- F. Thauvin4/4
- K. Antonio4/4
- M. Udol4/4
- R. Risser4/4
- A. Haidara3/4
- R. Aguilar3/4
- I. Ganiou2/4
- M. Cuisance2/4
- M. Skoras2/4
- A. Bulatovic1/4
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
- Le Mans – ToulouseOct 16, 2026
- Strasbourg – Paris Saint GermainOct 17, 2026
- Lille – Stade Brestois 29Oct 17, 2026
- Angers – MarseilleOct 18, 2026
- Paris FC – RennesOct 18, 2026
- Le Havre – AuxerreOct 18, 2026
- Lorient – MonacoOct 18, 2026
- Lyon – NiceOct 18, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Estac Troyes vs Lens prediction?
Our AI gives Estac Troyes a 52% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Lens 26%. Estac Troyes are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Estac Troyes vs Lens?
1-1 (9.7%), followed by 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (7.4%), 2-0 (7.2%) and 1-2 (6.4%).
Will both teams score in Estac Troyes vs Lens?
The probability that both Estac Troyes and Lens score is 63%. Estac Troyes have a 27% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Lens 14%.
How many goals should we expect in Estac Troyes vs Lens?
The model expects 3.28 goals (1.96 for Estac Troyes, 1.32 for Lens). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 84%, over 2.5 goals 64%, over 3.5 goals 42%.
When and where is Estac Troyes vs Lens played?
Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), Ligue 1, matchday 7. Venue: Stade de l'Aube, Troyes.
What form are Estac Troyes and Lens in?
Estac Troyes: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 13 conceded). Lens: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 7 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Estac Troyes and Lens?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Estac Troyes, 4 for Lens and 1 draw. The most recent ended Estac Troyes 2-4 Lens (Feb 4, 2026).
How is the Estac Troyes vs Lens prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.96 for Estac Troyes, 1.32 for Lens) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Estac Troyes predictions
- All Lens predictions
- Ligue 1 predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology