Ligue 1· Kick-off : Sunday, October 18, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)
Lyon vs Nice prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Lyon take on Nice on Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), a Ligue 1, matchday 7 fixture. Venue: Groupama Stadium, Lyon. With a 89% win probability, Lyon go in as strong favourites against Nice (3%), with the draw rated at 8%. The most likely correct score is 3-0 (11.6%), ahead of 2-0 (10.0%) and 4-0 (10.0%).
Lyon are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (3 wins, 2 draws), scoring 10 and conceding 3. Nice have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 3 and conceding 6. Recent momentum is clearly with Lyon. On average Lyon score 2.00 and concede 0.60 goals per game; Nice score 0.60 and concede 1.20. In the table, Lyon sit 2nd with 11 points from 5 games, Nice 14th with 5 points from 5. 12 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Lyon have averaged 1.96 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.11 for Nice.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 4 wins for Lyon, 1 for Nice and 0 draws. The most recent ended Lyon 2-0 Nice (Feb 15, 2026). Lyon out or doubtful: M. Niakhate. In double chance terms, "Lyon or draw" stands at 97%, "Nice or draw" at 11% and "no draw" at 92%.
In short : Lyon are tipped by our AI model in this Lyon v Nice (89%). In the table, Lyon (2nd, 11 pts) host Nice (14th, 5 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 3-0.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Lyon – Nice. 3-0 is the single most likely scoreline (11.6%); the 5 scores below add up to 46% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Lyon 3-0 Nice | 11.6% |
| Lyon 2-0 Nice | 10.0% |
| Lyon 4-0 Nice | 10.0% |
| Lyon 3-1 Nice | 7.3% |
| Lyon 5-0 Nice | 6.9% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 4.09 goals in total (3.46 for Lyon, 0.63 for Nice): over 2.5 goals has a 78% probability and both teams to score 45%. Everything points to an open game. Lyon keep a clean sheet in 53% of scenarios, Nice in 3%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Lyon expected goals | 3.46 |
| Nice expected goals | 0.63 |
| Both teams to score | 45% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 92% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 78% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 58% |
| Lyon clean sheet | 53% |
| Nice clean sheet | 3% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Lyon
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Rennes · Ligue 1 | 4-0 | W |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Anderlecht · UEFA Europa League | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Paris FC · Ligue 1 | 0-0 | D |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Auxerre · Ligue 1 | 3-1 | W |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Le Havre · Ligue 1 | 1-1 | D |
Nice
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Lille · Ligue 1 | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Auxerre · Ligue 1 | 0-1 | L |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Le Mans · Ligue 1 | 1-1 | D |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Paris FC · Ligue 1 | 0-3 | L |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Lorient · Ligue 1 | 0-0 | D |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lyon | 2 | 11 | 5 |
| Nice | 14 | 5 | 5 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 15, 2026 | Lyon 2-0 Nice | Ligue 1 |
| Oct 18, 2025 | Nice 3-2 Lyon | Ligue 1 |
| Mar 9, 2025 | Nice 0-2 Lyon | Ligue 1 |
| Dec 1, 2024 | Lyon 4-1 Nice | Ligue 1 |
| Feb 16, 2024 | Lyon 1-0 Nice | Ligue 1 |
Out and doubtful
Lyon
- M. Niakhate (out)
Nice
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Lyon
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Corentin Tolisso3/5
- Dominik Greif3/5
- Ernest Nuamah3/5
- Felix Bacher3/5
- Loïs Openda3/5
- Mads Bidstrup3/5
- Moussa Niakhaté3/5
- Tyler Morton3/5
- Zachary Athekame3/5
- Abner Vinícius2/5
- L. Openda2/5
Nice
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- D. Coulibaly5/5
- J. Clauss5/5
- X. Mandza Tsiendi5/5
- Y. Diouf5/5
- Y. Ndayishimiye5/5
- A. Witsel4/5
- G. Hein4/5
- M. Abdelmonem4/5
- E. Wahi3/5
- N. Nkounkou3/5
- S. Diop3/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
- Le Mans – ToulouseOct 16, 2026
- Strasbourg – Paris Saint GermainOct 17, 2026
- Estac Troyes – LensOct 17, 2026
- Lille – Stade Brestois 29Oct 17, 2026
- Angers – MarseilleOct 18, 2026
- Paris FC – RennesOct 18, 2026
- Le Havre – AuxerreOct 18, 2026
- Lorient – MonacoOct 18, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Lyon vs Nice prediction?
Our AI gives Lyon a 89% chance of winning, the draw 8% and Nice 3%. Lyon are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Lyon vs Nice?
3-0 (11.6%), followed by 2-0 (10.0%), 4-0 (10.0%), 3-1 (7.3%) and 5-0 (6.9%).
Will both teams score in Lyon vs Nice?
The probability that both Lyon and Nice score is 45%. Lyon have a 53% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Nice 3%.
How many goals should we expect in Lyon vs Nice?
The model expects 4.09 goals (3.46 for Lyon, 0.63 for Nice). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 92%, over 2.5 goals 78%, over 3.5 goals 58%.
When and where is Lyon vs Nice played?
Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), Ligue 1, matchday 7. Venue: Groupama Stadium, Lyon.
What form are Lyon and Nice in?
Lyon: 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 3 conceded). Nice: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (3 scored, 6 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Lyon and Nice?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 4 wins for Lyon, 1 for Nice and 0 draws. The most recent ended Lyon 2-0 Nice (Feb 15, 2026).
How is the Lyon vs Nice prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (3.46 for Lyon, 0.63 for Nice) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.