Ligue 1· Kick-off : Saturday, October 17, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)
Lille vs Stade Brestois 29 prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Ligue 1, matchday 7: the Lille vs Stade Brestois 29 match is scheduled on Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time). Venue: Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Lille. Our model makes Lille clear favourites: a 64% chance of winning, against 19% for the draw and 17% for Stade Brestois 29. On the correct score, 2-1 comes out on top (9.8%), followed by 2-0 (9.3%) and 1-1 (8.8%).
Over their last 5 matches, Lille have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 8 and conceding 6. Stade Brestois 29 have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 7 and conceding 8. Lille therefore arrive in far better shape than Stade Brestois 29. On average Lille score 1.60 and concede 1.20 goals per game; Stade Brestois 29 score 1.40 and concede 1.60. In the table, Lille sit 4th with 10 points from 5 games, Stade Brestois 29 11th with 5 points from 5. 7 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Lille have averaged 1.35 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.75 for Stade Brestois 29.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Lille, 1 for Stade Brestois 29 and 3 draws. The most recent ended Lille 1-1 Stade Brestois 29 (Feb 14, 2026). Lille out or doubtful: H. Igamane and T. Nianzou (doubtful). Stade Brestois 29: B. Chardonnet, R. Le Guen, R. Cagnon (doubtful), M. Diambou (doubtful) and G. Versini (doubtful). In double chance terms, "Lille or draw" stands at 83%, "Stade Brestois 29 or draw" at 36% and "no draw" at 81%.
In short : Lille are tipped by our AI model in this Lille v Stade Brestois 29 (64%). On recent form, Lille have 3 wins, 0 draw and 2 losses in 5 while Stade Brestois 29 have 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Lille – Stade Brestois 29. 2-1 is the single most likely scoreline (9.8%); the 5 scores below add up to 44% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Lille 2-1 Stade Brestois 29 | 9.8% |
| Lille 2-0 Stade Brestois 29 | 9.3% |
| Lille 1-1 Stade Brestois 29 | 8.8% |
| Lille 1-0 Stade Brestois 29 | 8.3% |
| Lille 3-1 Stade Brestois 29 | 7.3% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 2.23 expected goals for Lille and 1.06 for Stade Brestois 29, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 64% and "both teams to score" at 58%. Goals look likely in this one. Lille keep a clean sheet in 35% of scenarios, Stade Brestois 29 in 11%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Lille expected goals | 2.23 |
| Stade Brestois 29 expected goals | 1.06 |
| Both teams to score | 58% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42% |
| Lille clean sheet | 35% |
| Stade Brestois 29 clean sheet | 11% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Lille
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 2026 | Zulte Waregem · Club Friendlies | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Nice · Ligue 1 | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Estac Troyes · Ligue 1 | 2-0 | W |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Real Betis · UEFA Champions League | 2-3 | L |
| Sep 3, 2026 | Toulouse · Ligue 1 | 1-0 | W |
Stade Brestois 29
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 3, 2026 | Monza · Club Friendlies | 2-2 | D |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Auxerre · Ligue 1 | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Paris Saint Germain · Ligue 1 | 0-1 | L |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Le Havre · Ligue 1 | 2-1 | W |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Toulouse · Ligue 1 | 2-2 | D |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lille | 4 | 10 | 5 |
| Stade Brestois 29 | 11 | 5 | 5 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 14, 2026 | Lille 1-1 Stade Brestois 29 | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 17, 2025 | Stade Brestois 29 3-3 Lille | Ligue 1 |
| May 10, 2025 | Stade Brestois 29 2-0 Lille | Ligue 1 |
| Dec 6, 2024 | Lille 3-1 Stade Brestois 29 | Ligue 1 |
| Mar 17, 2024 | Stade Brestois 29 1-1 Lille | Ligue 1 |
Out and doubtful
Lille
- H. Igamane (out)
- T. Nianzou (doubtful)
Stade Brestois 29
- B. Chardonnet (out)
- R. Le Guen (out)
- R. Cagnon (doubtful)
- M. Diambou (doubtful)
- G. Versini (doubtful)
Most regular starters
Lille
Starts over the last 4 matches (official line-ups).
- Alexsandro4/4
- B. Ozer4/4
- H. Haraldsson4/4
- N. Bentaleb4/4
- N. Ngoy4/4
- T. Santos4/4
- A. Ueda3/4
- B. Andre3/4
- E. Mbappe3/4
- R. Perraud3/4
- B. Onal2/4
Stade Brestois 29
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- B. Locko5/5
- G. Lloris5/5
- J. Chotard5/5
- L. Ajorque5/5
- E. Selvik4/5
- H. Magnetti4/5
- K. Doumbia4/5
- K. Lala4/5
- P. Mboup4/5
- R. Le Guen4/5
- G. Versini2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
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- Estac Troyes – LensOct 17, 2026
- Angers – MarseilleOct 18, 2026
- Paris FC – RennesOct 18, 2026
- Le Havre – AuxerreOct 18, 2026
- Lorient – MonacoOct 18, 2026
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Frequently asked questions
What is the Lille vs Stade Brestois 29 prediction?
Our AI gives Lille a 64% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Stade Brestois 29 17%. Lille are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Lille vs Stade Brestois 29?
2-1 (9.8%), followed by 2-0 (9.3%), 1-1 (8.8%), 1-0 (8.3%) and 3-1 (7.3%).
Will both teams score in Lille vs Stade Brestois 29?
The probability that both Lille and Stade Brestois 29 score is 58%. Lille have a 35% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Stade Brestois 29 11%.
How many goals should we expect in Lille vs Stade Brestois 29?
The model expects 3.29 goals (2.23 for Lille, 1.06 for Stade Brestois 29). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 84%, over 2.5 goals 64%, over 3.5 goals 42%.
When and where is Lille vs Stade Brestois 29 played?
Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), Ligue 1, matchday 7. Venue: Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Lille.
What form are Lille and Stade Brestois 29 in?
Lille: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 6 conceded). Stade Brestois 29: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 8 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Lille and Stade Brestois 29?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Lille, 1 for Stade Brestois 29 and 3 draws. The most recent ended Lille 1-1 Stade Brestois 29 (Feb 14, 2026).
How is the Lille vs Stade Brestois 29 prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.23 for Lille, 1.06 for Stade Brestois 29) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Lille predictions
- All Stade Brestois 29 predictions
- Ligue 1 predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology