Ligue 1· Kick-off : Sunday, October 18, 2026, 16:15 (UK time)
Lorient vs Monaco prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Ligue 1, matchday 7: Lorient vs Monaco kicks off on Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 16:15 (UK time). Venue: Stade du Moustoir, Lorient. Monaco start as favourites with a 55% chance of victory; Lorient are given 20% and the draw 25%. On the correct score, 0-1 comes out on top (12.9%), followed by 1-1 (11.6%) and 0-2 (10.6%).
Lorient have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 5 and conceding 6. Monaco are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (4 wins, 1 draw), scoring 9 and conceding 3. Monaco therefore arrive in far better shape than Lorient. On average Lorient score 1.00 and concede 1.20 goals per game; Monaco score 1.80 and concede 0.60. In the table, Lorient sit 12th with 5 points from 5 games, Monaco 1st with 13 points from 5. 11 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Lorient have averaged 1.34 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.11 for Monaco.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Lorient, 1 for Monaco and 2 draws. The most recent ended Monaco 1-3 Lorient (Jan 16, 2026). Lorient out or doubtful: B. Fadiga (doubtful), P. Katseris (doubtful) and N. Mbamba (doubtful). Monaco: P. Brunner (suspended), A. Fati, M. Coulibaly (doubtful) and S. Idumbo (doubtful). In double chance terms, "Lorient or draw" stands at 45%, "Monaco or draw" at 80% and "no draw" at 75%.
In short : Our model backs Monaco to edge Lorient (55% probability). On recent form, Lorient have 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses in 5 while Monaco are in good shape (4 wins in 5). Both teams could find the net (BTTS at 48%).
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Lorient – Monaco. 0-1 is the single most likely scoreline (12.9%); the 5 scores below add up to 52% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Lorient 0-1 Monaco | 12.9% |
| Lorient 1-1 Monaco | 11.6% |
| Lorient 0-2 Monaco | 10.6% |
| Lorient 1-2 Monaco | 9.6% |
| Lorient 0-0 Monaco | 7.8% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 0.90 expected goals for Lorient and 1.65 for Monaco, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 47% and "both teams to score" at 48%. Lorient keep a clean sheet in 19% of scenarios, Monaco in 41%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Lorient expected goals | 0.90 |
| Monaco expected goals | 1.65 |
| Both teams to score | 48% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% |
| Lorient clean sheet | 19% |
| Monaco clean sheet | 41% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Lorient
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Le Mans · Ligue 1 | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Toulouse · Ligue 1 | 2-2 | D |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Lens · Ligue 1 | 1-0 | W |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Estac Troyes · Ligue 1 | 1-2 | L |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Nice · Ligue 1 | 0-0 | D |
Monaco
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 3, 2026 | Pisa · Club Friendlies | 2-0 | W |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Lens · Ligue 1 | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Strasbourg · Ligue 1 | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Paris Saint Germain · Ligue 1 | 2-1 | W |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Marseille · Ligue 1 | 2-0 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lorient | 12 | 5 | 5 |
| Monaco | 1 | 13 | 5 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 16, 2026 | Monaco 1-3 Lorient | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 27, 2025 | Lorient 3-1 Monaco | Ligue 1 |
| Mar 17, 2024 | Monaco 2-2 Lorient | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 17, 2023 | Lorient 2-2 Monaco | Ligue 1 |
| Apr 16, 2023 | Monaco 3-1 Lorient | Ligue 1 |
Out and doubtful
Lorient
- B. Fadiga (doubtful)
- P. Katseris (doubtful)
- N. Mbamba (doubtful)
Monaco
- P. Brunner (suspended)
- A. Fati (out)
- M. Coulibaly (doubtful)
- S. Idumbo (doubtful)
Most regular starters
Lorient
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Arsène Kouassi4/5
- Dembo Sylla4/5
- Gabin Bernardeau4/5
- Jean Victor Makengo4/5
- Montassar Talbi4/5
- Nathaniel Adjei4/5
- Noah Cadiou4/5
- Yvon Mvogo4/5
- Mamadou Koné3/5
- Arthur Avom Ebong2/5
- Noah Mbamba2/5
Monaco
Starts over the last 4 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Golovin4/4
- D. Zakaria4/4
- E. Dier4/4
- L. Camara4/4
- L. Hradecky4/4
- Nazinho4/4
- P. Brunner4/4
- S. Sane4/4
- Vanderson4/4
- S. Idumbo3/4
- M. Coulibaly2/4
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
- Le Mans – ToulouseOct 16, 2026
- Strasbourg – Paris Saint GermainOct 17, 2026
- Estac Troyes – LensOct 17, 2026
- Lille – Stade Brestois 29Oct 17, 2026
- Angers – MarseilleOct 18, 2026
- Paris FC – RennesOct 18, 2026
- Le Havre – AuxerreOct 18, 2026
- Lyon – NiceOct 18, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Lorient vs Monaco prediction?
Our AI gives Lorient a 20% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Monaco 55%. Monaco are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Lorient vs Monaco?
0-1 (12.9%), followed by 1-1 (11.6%), 0-2 (10.6%), 1-2 (9.6%) and 0-0 (7.8%).
Will both teams score in Lorient vs Monaco?
The probability that both Lorient and Monaco score is 48%. Lorient have a 19% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Monaco 41%.
How many goals should we expect in Lorient vs Monaco?
The model expects 2.55 goals (0.90 for Lorient, 1.65 for Monaco). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 72%, over 2.5 goals 47%, over 3.5 goals 25%.
When and where is Lorient vs Monaco played?
Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 16:15 (UK time), Ligue 1, matchday 7. Venue: Stade du Moustoir, Lorient.
What form are Lorient and Monaco in?
Lorient: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 6 conceded). Monaco: 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 3 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Lorient and Monaco?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Lorient, 1 for Monaco and 2 draws. The most recent ended Monaco 1-3 Lorient (Jan 16, 2026).
How is the Lorient vs Monaco prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (0.90 for Lorient, 1.65 for Monaco) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.