Ligue 1· Kick-off : Sunday, October 18, 2026, 16:15 (UK time)
Le Havre vs Auxerre prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Ligue 1, matchday 7: Le Havre vs Auxerre kicks off on Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 16:15 (UK time). Venue: Stade Océane, Le Havre. It is a tight call: 32% for Le Havre, 27% for the draw and 41% for Auxerre. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (12.7%), followed by 0-1 (11.0%) and 1-0 (9.4%).
Le Havre have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 10 and conceding 7. Over their last 5 matches, Auxerre have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 9 and conceding 10. Auxerre therefore arrive in far better shape than Le Havre. On average Le Havre score 2.00 and concede 1.40 goals per game; Auxerre score 1.80 and concede 2.00. In the table, Le Havre sit 18th with 2 points from 5 games, Auxerre 10th with 6 points from 5. 8 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Le Havre have averaged 1.35 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.16 for Auxerre.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Le Havre, 0 for Auxerre and 1 draw. The most recent ended Le Havre 1-1 Auxerre (Apr 5, 2026). Le Havre out or doubtful: F. Mambimbi, L. Mpasi-Nzau, A. Toure, S. Zagadou and T. Pembele (doubtful). In double chance terms, "Le Havre or draw" stands at 59%, "Auxerre or draw" at 68% and "no draw" at 73%.
In short : Auxerre are tipped by our AI model in this Le Havre v Auxerre (41%). In the table, Le Havre (18th, 2 pts) host Auxerre (10th, 6 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-1.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Le Havre – Auxerre. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (12.7%); the 5 scores below add up to 50% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Le Havre 1-1 Auxerre | 12.7% |
| Le Havre 0-1 Auxerre | 11.0% |
| Le Havre 1-0 Auxerre | 9.4% |
| Le Havre 1-2 Auxerre | 8.6% |
| Le Havre 0-0 Auxerre | 8.1% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.16 expected goals for Le Havre and 1.35 for Auxerre, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 46% and "both teams to score" at 51%. Le Havre keep a clean sheet in 26% of scenarios, Auxerre in 31%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Le Havre expected goals | 1.16 |
| Auxerre expected goals | 1.35 |
| Both teams to score | 51% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% |
| Le Havre clean sheet | 26% |
| Auxerre clean sheet | 31% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Le Havre
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 2026 | Boulogne · Club Friendlies | 6-1 | W |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Toulouse · Ligue 1 | 2-3 | L |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Angers · Ligue 1 | 0-0 | D |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Stade Brestois 29 · Ligue 1 | 1-2 | L |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Lyon · Ligue 1 | 1-1 | D |
Auxerre
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 2026 | Clermont Foot · Club Friendlies | 4-3 | W |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Stade Brestois 29 · Ligue 1 | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Nice · Ligue 1 | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Lyon · Ligue 1 | 1-3 | L |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Angers · Ligue 1 | 1-3 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Le Havre | 18 | 2 | 5 |
| Auxerre | 10 | 6 | 5 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 5, 2026 | Le Havre 1-1 Auxerre | Ligue 1 |
| Oct 26, 2025 | Auxerre 0-1 Le Havre | Ligue 1 |
Out and doubtful
Le Havre
- F. Mambimbi (out)
- L. Mpasi-Nzau (out)
- A. Toure (out)
- S. Zagadou (out)
- T. Pembele (doubtful)
Auxerre
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Le Havre
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Richardson4/5
- A. Samatta4/5
- A. Seko4/5
- A. Touba4/5
- J. Maja4/5
- S. Ebonog4/5
- D. Ouziad3/5
- E. Jelert3/5
- G. Gallon3/5
- J. Mwanga3/5
- K. Mizuta3/5
Auxerre
Starts over the last 4 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Piedfort4/4
- C. Akpa4/4
- D. Namaso4/4
- K. Danois4/4
- L. Sy4/4
- M. Diop4/4
- R. Labeau Lascary4/4
- C. Archer3/4
- C. Makosso3/4
- A. Tuanzebe2/4
- E. Legros2/4
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
- Le Mans – ToulouseOct 16, 2026
- Strasbourg – Paris Saint GermainOct 17, 2026
- Estac Troyes – LensOct 17, 2026
- Lille – Stade Brestois 29Oct 17, 2026
- Angers – MarseilleOct 18, 2026
- Paris FC – RennesOct 18, 2026
- Lorient – MonacoOct 18, 2026
- Lyon – NiceOct 18, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Le Havre vs Auxerre prediction?
Our AI gives Le Havre a 32% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Auxerre 41%. Auxerre are therefore slight favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Le Havre vs Auxerre?
1-1 (12.7%), followed by 0-1 (11.0%), 1-0 (9.4%), 1-2 (8.6%) and 0-0 (8.1%).
Will both teams score in Le Havre vs Auxerre?
The probability that both Le Havre and Auxerre score is 51%. Le Havre have a 26% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Auxerre 31%.
How many goals should we expect in Le Havre vs Auxerre?
The model expects 2.51 goals (1.16 for Le Havre, 1.35 for Auxerre). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 72%, over 2.5 goals 46%, over 3.5 goals 25%.
When and where is Le Havre vs Auxerre played?
Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 16:15 (UK time), Ligue 1, matchday 7. Venue: Stade Océane, Le Havre.
What form are Le Havre and Auxerre in?
Le Havre: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 7 conceded). Auxerre: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 10 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Auxerre?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Le Havre, 0 for Auxerre and 1 draw. The most recent ended Le Havre 1-1 Auxerre (Apr 5, 2026).
How is the Le Havre vs Auxerre prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.16 for Le Havre, 1.35 for Auxerre) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Le Havre predictions
- All Auxerre predictions
- Ligue 1 predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology