Ligue 1· Kick-off : Friday, October 16, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)
Le Mans vs Toulouse prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Ligue 1, matchday 7: Le Mans vs Toulouse kicks off on Friday, October 16, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time). Venue: MMArena, Le Mans. With a 77% win probability, Le Mans go in as strong favourites against Toulouse (9%), with the draw rated at 14%. The most likely correct score is 2-0 (9.3%), ahead of 3-0 (8.8%) and 2-1 (8.7%).
Le Mans have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 8 and conceding 9. Toulouse have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 9 and conceding 10. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Le Mans score 1.60 and concede 1.80 goals per game; Toulouse score 1.80 and concede 2.00. In the table, Le Mans sit 9th with 6 points from 5 games, Toulouse 13th with 5 points from 5. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Le Mans have averaged 2.31 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.14 for Toulouse.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Le Mans and Toulouse: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. Le Mans out or doubtful: D. Sidibe (suspended), L. Buades (doubtful) and E. Colas (doubtful). Toulouse: R. Nicolaisen (doubtful). In double chance terms, "Le Mans or draw" stands at 91%, "Toulouse or draw" at 23% and "no draw" at 86%.
In short : Our model backs Le Mans to edge Toulouse (77% probability). On recent form, Le Mans have 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses in 5 while Toulouse have 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses in 5. The model expects goals (over 2.5 at 73%).
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Le Mans – Toulouse. 2-0 is the single most likely scoreline (9.3%); the 5 scores below add up to 42% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Le Mans 2-0 Toulouse | 9.3% |
| Le Mans 3-0 Toulouse | 8.8% |
| Le Mans 2-1 Toulouse | 8.7% |
| Le Mans 3-1 Toulouse | 8.2% |
| Le Mans 1-0 Toulouse | 6.6% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 3.76 goals in total (2.83 for Le Mans, 0.93 for Toulouse): over 2.5 goals has a 73% probability and both teams to score 57%. Everything points to an open game. Le Mans keep a clean sheet in 39% of scenarios, Toulouse in 6%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Le Mans expected goals | 2.83 |
| Toulouse expected goals | 0.93 |
| Both teams to score | 57% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 89% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 73% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 52% |
| Le Mans clean sheet | 39% |
| Toulouse clean sheet | 6% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Le Mans
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 2026 | Guingamp · Club Friendlies | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Lorient · Ligue 1 | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Lens · Ligue 1 | 2-2 | D |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Nice · Ligue 1 | 1-1 | D |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Rennes · Ligue 1 | 2-3 | L |
Toulouse
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 3, 2026 | PAU · Club Friendlies | 2-3 | L |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Le Havre · Ligue 1 | 3-2 | W |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Lorient · Ligue 1 | 2-2 | D |
| Sep 3, 2026 | Lille · Ligue 1 | 0-1 | L |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Stade Brestois 29 · Ligue 1 | 2-2 | D |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Le Mans | 9 | 6 | 5 |
| Toulouse | 13 | 5 | 5 |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Le Mans and Toulouse: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
Le Mans
- D. Sidibe (suspended)
- L. Buades (doubtful)
- E. Colas (doubtful)
Toulouse
- R. Nicolaisen (doubtful)
Most regular starters
Le Mans
Starts over the last 4 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Bourabaa4/4
- H. Voyer4/4
- L. Mafouta4/4
- D. Gueye3/4
- J. Vercruysse3/4
- L. Bretelle3/4
- L. Calodat3/4
- N. Boisse3/4
- R. Bamba3/4
- A. Lauray2/4
- E. Hatfout2/4
Toulouse
Starts over the last 4 matches (official line-ups).
- C. Casseres4/4
- C. Tape4/4
- J. Russell-Rowe4/4
- M. McKenzie4/4
- T. Jorgensen4/4
- G. Restes3/4
- I. Azizi3/4
- R. Messali3/4
- A. Vossah2/4
- R. Nicolaisen2/4
- S. Hidalgo2/4
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
- Strasbourg – Paris Saint GermainOct 17, 2026
- Estac Troyes – LensOct 17, 2026
- Lille – Stade Brestois 29Oct 17, 2026
- Angers – MarseilleOct 18, 2026
- Paris FC – RennesOct 18, 2026
- Le Havre – AuxerreOct 18, 2026
- Lorient – MonacoOct 18, 2026
- Lyon – NiceOct 18, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Le Mans vs Toulouse prediction?
Our AI gives Le Mans a 77% chance of winning, the draw 14% and Toulouse 9%. Le Mans are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Le Mans vs Toulouse?
2-0 (9.3%), followed by 3-0 (8.8%), 2-1 (8.7%), 3-1 (8.2%) and 1-0 (6.6%).
Will both teams score in Le Mans vs Toulouse?
The probability that both Le Mans and Toulouse score is 57%. Le Mans have a 39% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Toulouse 6%.
How many goals should we expect in Le Mans vs Toulouse?
The model expects 3.76 goals (2.83 for Le Mans, 0.93 for Toulouse). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 89%, over 2.5 goals 73%, over 3.5 goals 52%.
When and where is Le Mans vs Toulouse played?
Friday, October 16, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), Ligue 1, matchday 7. Venue: MMArena, Le Mans.
What form are Le Mans and Toulouse in?
Le Mans: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 9 conceded). Toulouse: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 10 conceded).
How is the Le Mans vs Toulouse prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.83 for Le Mans, 0.93 for Toulouse) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Le Mans predictions
- All Toulouse predictions
- Ligue 1 predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology