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Ligue 1Ligue 1· Kick-off : Sunday, September 20, 2026, 14:00 (UK time)

Auxerre vs Stade Brestois 29: 2-1 result and AI prediction review

AuxerreAuxerre2 – 1Stade Brestois 29Stade Brestois 29

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome missedExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 1-2

Final score: Auxerre 2-1 Stade Brestois 29. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Stade Brestois 29 (39%), while victory for Auxerre was rated at only 33%. The final score ranked 10th among the most likely scorelines (4.3%), behind 1-2. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (67%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (75%): correct.

Match analysis

Auxerre and Stade Brestois 29 met on Sunday, September 20, 2026, a Ligue 1, matchday 5 fixture. Venue: Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps, Auxerre. Before kick-off, our model gave Auxerre a 33% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Stade Brestois 29 39%. On the correct score, 1-2 comes out on top (8.9%), followed by 1-3 (7.8%) and 0-2 (6.9%).

Over their last 5 matches, Auxerre have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats, scoring 6 and conceding 11. Stade Brestois 29 have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 6 and conceding 8. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Auxerre score 1.20 and concede 2.20 goals per game; Stade Brestois 29 score 1.20 and concede 1.60. In the table, Auxerre sit 16th with 3 points from 4 games, Stade Brestois 29 9th with 5 points from 4. 7 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Auxerre have averaged 1.45 xG (expected goals) per match, against 2.34 for Stade Brestois 29.

In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Auxerre, 1 for Stade Brestois 29 and 0 draws. The most recent ended Auxerre 3-0 Stade Brestois 29 (Mar 21, 2026). Auxerre out or doubtful: A. Diousse, B. Okoh, M. Senaya, T. Siwe and S. Fofana. Stade Brestois 29: R. Cagnon, B. Chardonnet, M. Diambou and N. Edjouma. In double chance terms, "Auxerre or draw" stands at 61%, "Stade Brestois 29 or draw" at 67% and "no draw" at 73%.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

33%
Auxerre (Win)
27%
Draw
39%
Stade Brestois 29 (Win)

Double chance

61%
Auxerre or draw
67%
Stade Brestois 29 or draw
73%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Auxerre – Stade Brestois 29. 1-2 is the single most likely scoreline (8.9%); the 5 scores below add up to 36% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Auxerre 1-2 Stade Brestois 298.9%
Auxerre 1-3 Stade Brestois 297.8%
Auxerre 0-2 Stade Brestois 296.9%
Auxerre 1-1 Stade Brestois 296.7%
Auxerre 0-3 Stade Brestois 296.0%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

With 1.29 expected goals for Auxerre and 2.63 for Stade Brestois 29, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 75% and "both teams to score" at 67%. Goals look likely in this one. Auxerre keep a clean sheet in 7% of scenarios, Stade Brestois 29 in 28%.

Probability
Auxerre expected goals1.29
Stade Brestois 29 expected goals2.63
Both teams to score67%
Over 1.5 goals90%
Over 2.5 goals75%
Over 3.5 goals55%
Auxerre clean sheet7%
Stade Brestois 29 clean sheet28%

Recent form

Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.

Auxerre

DateOpponentScore
Sep 12, 2026Nice · Ligue 11-0W
Sep 4, 2026Lyon · Ligue 11-3L
Aug 29, 2026Angers · Ligue 11-3L
Aug 22, 2026Lens · Ligue 12-5L
Aug 15, 2026Werder Bremen · Club Friendlies1-0W

Stade Brestois 29

DateOpponentScore
Sep 13, 2026Paris Saint Germain · Ligue 10-1L
Sep 5, 2026Le Havre · Ligue 12-1W
Aug 29, 2026Toulouse · Ligue 12-2D
Aug 22, 2026Le Mans · Ligue 12-2D
Aug 16, 2026Nottingham Forest · Club Friendlies0-2L

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Auxerre1634
Stade Brestois 29954

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
Mar 21, 2026Auxerre 3-0 Stade Brestois 29Ligue 1
Jan 4, 2026Stade Brestois 29 2-0 AuxerreLigue 1

Out and doubtful

Auxerre

  • A. Diousse (out)
  • B. Okoh (out)
  • M. Senaya (out)
  • T. Siwe (out)
  • S. Fofana (out)

Stade Brestois 29

  • R. Cagnon (out)
  • B. Chardonnet (out)
  • M. Diambou (out)
  • N. Edjouma (out)

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Auxerre vs Stade Brestois 29 prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Auxerre a 33% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Stade Brestois 29 39%. Stade Brestois 29 are therefore slight favourites. Final score: 2-1.

What is the most likely correct score for Auxerre vs Stade Brestois 29?

1-2 (8.9%), followed by 1-3 (7.8%), 0-2 (6.9%), 1-1 (6.7%) and 0-3 (6.0%).

Will both teams score in Auxerre vs Stade Brestois 29?

The probability that both Auxerre and Stade Brestois 29 score is 67%. Auxerre have a 7% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Stade Brestois 29 28%.

How many goals should we expect in Auxerre vs Stade Brestois 29?

The model expects 3.92 goals (1.29 for Auxerre, 2.63 for Stade Brestois 29). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 90%, over 2.5 goals 75%, over 3.5 goals 55%.

When and where is Auxerre vs Stade Brestois 29 played?

Sunday, September 20, 2026 at 14:00 (UK time), Ligue 1, matchday 5. Venue: Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps, Auxerre.

What form are Auxerre and Stade Brestois 29 in?

Auxerre: 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 11 conceded). Stade Brestois 29: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 8 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Stade Brestois 29?

In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Auxerre, 1 for Stade Brestois 29 and 0 draws. The most recent ended Auxerre 3-0 Stade Brestois 29 (Mar 21, 2026).

What was the Auxerre vs Stade Brestois 29 result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Auxerre 2-1 Stade Brestois 29. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Stade Brestois 29 (39%), while victory for Auxerre was rated at only 33%. The final score ranked 10th among the most likely scorelines (4.3%), behind 1-2. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (67%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (75%): correct.

How is the Auxerre vs Stade Brestois 29 prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.29 for Auxerre, 2.63 for Stade Brestois 29) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

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Key terms explained