Ligue 1· Kick-off : Sunday, September 20, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)
Marseille vs Paris Saint Germain: 1-2 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Marseille 1-2 Paris Saint Germain. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Paris Saint Germain at 55%. The exact score 1-2 was the most likely scoreline in our grid (9.4%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (65%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (68%): correct.
Match analysis
Marseille and Paris Saint Germain met on Sunday, September 20, 2026, a Ligue 1, matchday 5 fixture. Venue: Orange Vélodrome, Marseille. Before kick-off, our model gave Marseille a 24% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Paris Saint Germain 55%. On the correct score, 1-2 comes out on top (9.4%), followed by 1-1 (8.9%) and 0-2 (6.9%).
Marseille have won just one of their last 5 matches (0 draws, 4 defeats), scoring 7 and conceding 10. Over their last 5 matches, Paris Saint Germain have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 12 and conceding 7. Paris Saint Germain therefore arrive in far better shape than Marseille. On average Marseille score 1.40 and concede 2.00 goals per game; Paris Saint Germain score 2.40 and concede 1.40. In the table, Marseille sit 15th with 3 points from 4 games, Paris Saint Germain 10th with 5 points from 4. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Marseille have averaged 1.63 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.77 for Paris Saint Germain.
In the last 3 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Marseille, 1 for Paris Saint Germain and 1 draw. The most recent ended Paris Saint Germain 5-0 Marseille (Feb 8, 2026). Marseille out or doubtful: G. Kondogbia, D. Cornelius and T. Nnadi. Paris Saint Germain: A. Hakimi, S. Mayulu and I. Zabarnyi. In double chance terms, "Marseille or draw" stands at 45%, "Paris Saint Germain or draw" at 76% and "no draw" at 79%.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Marseille – Paris Saint Germain. 1-2 is the single most likely scoreline (9.4%); the 5 scores below add up to 38% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Marseille 1-2 Paris Saint Germain | 9.4% |
| Marseille 1-1 Paris Saint Germain | 8.9% |
| Marseille 0-2 Paris Saint Germain | 6.9% |
| Marseille 1-3 Paris Saint Germain | 6.7% |
| Marseille 0-1 Paris Saint Germain | 6.5% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.36 expected goals for Marseille and 2.12 for Paris Saint Germain, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 68% and "both teams to score" at 65%. Goals look likely in this one. Marseille keep a clean sheet in 12% of scenarios, Paris Saint Germain in 26%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Marseille expected goals | 1.36 |
| Paris Saint Germain expected goals | 2.12 |
| Both teams to score | 65% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 46% |
| Marseille clean sheet | 12% |
| Paris Saint Germain clean sheet | 26% |
Recent form
Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.
Marseille
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 17, 2026 | Beşiktaş · UEFA Europa League | 1-4 | L |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Rennes · Ligue 1 | 0-1 | L |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Paris FC · Ligue 1 | 2-3 | L |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Monaco · Ligue 1 | 0-2 | L |
| Aug 21, 2026 | Strasbourg · Ligue 1 | 4-0 | W |
Paris Saint Germain
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | Stade Brestois 29 · Ligue 1 | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Slovan Bratislava · UEFA Champions League | 6-1 | W |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Monaco · Ligue 1 | 1-2 | L |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Lille · Ligue 1 | 2-2 | D |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Rennes · Ligue 1 | 2-2 | D |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marseille | 15 | 3 | 4 |
| Paris Saint Germain | 10 | 5 | 4 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 8, 2026 | Paris Saint Germain 5-0 Marseille | Ligue 1 |
| Jan 8, 2026 | Paris Saint Germain 2-2 Marseille | Trophée des Champions |
| Sep 22, 2025 | Marseille 1-0 Paris Saint Germain | Ligue 1 |
Out and doubtful
Marseille
- G. Kondogbia (out)
- D. Cornelius (out)
- T. Nnadi (out)
Paris Saint Germain
- A. Hakimi (out)
- S. Mayulu (out)
- I. Zabarnyi (out)
Other matches in this competition
- Monaco 2-1 LensSep 18, 2026
- Paris FC 2-1 StrasbourgSep 19, 2026
- Toulouse 3-2 Le HavreSep 19, 2026
- Angers 2-0 Estac TroyesSep 19, 2026
- Lyon 4-0 RennesSep 19, 2026
- Le Mans 2-1 LorientSep 19, 2026
- Auxerre 2-1 Stade Brestois 29Sep 20, 2026
- Nice 2-1 LilleSep 20, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Marseille vs Paris Saint Germain prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Marseille a 24% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Paris Saint Germain 55%. Paris Saint Germain are therefore favourites. Final score: 1-2.
What is the most likely correct score for Marseille vs Paris Saint Germain?
1-2 (9.4%), followed by 1-1 (8.9%), 0-2 (6.9%), 1-3 (6.7%) and 0-1 (6.5%).
Will both teams score in Marseille vs Paris Saint Germain?
The probability that both Marseille and Paris Saint Germain score is 65%. Marseille have a 12% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Paris Saint Germain 26%.
How many goals should we expect in Marseille vs Paris Saint Germain?
The model expects 3.48 goals (1.36 for Marseille, 2.12 for Paris Saint Germain). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 86%, over 2.5 goals 68%, over 3.5 goals 46%.
When and where is Marseille vs Paris Saint Germain played?
Sunday, September 20, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), Ligue 1, matchday 5. Venue: Orange Vélodrome, Marseille.
What form are Marseille and Paris Saint Germain in?
Marseille: 1 win, 0 draws and 4 defeats in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 10 conceded). Paris Saint Germain: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (12 scored, 7 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Marseille and Paris Saint Germain?
In the last 3 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Marseille, 1 for Paris Saint Germain and 1 draw. The most recent ended Paris Saint Germain 5-0 Marseille (Feb 8, 2026).
What was the Marseille vs Paris Saint Germain result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Marseille 1-2 Paris Saint Germain. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Paris Saint Germain at 55%. The exact score 1-2 was the most likely scoreline in our grid (9.4%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (65%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (68%): correct.
How is the Marseille vs Paris Saint Germain prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.36 for Marseille, 2.12 for Paris Saint Germain) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Marseille predictions
- All Paris Saint Germain predictions
- Ligue 1 predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology