Ligue 1· Kick-off : Sunday, September 20, 2026, 16:15 (UK time)
Nice vs Lille: 2-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Nice 2-1 Lille. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Lille (73%), while victory for Nice was rated at only 9%. The model considered this score unlikely (2.4%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (39%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (50%): correct.
Match analysis
Nice and Lille met on Sunday, September 20, 2026, a Ligue 1, matchday 5 fixture. Venue: Allianz Riviera, Nice. Before kick-off, our model gave Nice a 9% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Lille 73%. On the correct score, 0-2 comes out on top (15.1%), followed by 0-1 (14.3%) and 0-3 (10.6%).
Nice have not won any of their last 5 matches (3 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 1 and conceding 5. Over their last 5 matches, Lille have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 9 and conceding 5. Lille therefore arrive in far better shape than Nice. On average Nice score 0.20 and concede 1.00 goals per game; Lille score 1.80 and concede 1.00. In the table, Nice sit 18th with 2 points from 4 games, Lille 4th with 10 points from 4. 14 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Nice have averaged 0.98 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.25 for Lille.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Nice, 0 for Lille and 1 draw. The most recent ended Lille 0-0 Nice (Apr 18, 2026). Nice out or doubtful: L. Abergel, M. Bombito, A. Mendy and M. Sanson. Lille: H. Igamane and T. Nianzou. In double chance terms, "Nice or draw" stands at 27%, "Lille or draw" at 91% and "no draw" at 82%.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Nice – Lille. 0-2 is the single most likely scoreline (15.1%); the 5 scores below add up to 57% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Nice 0-2 Lille | 15.1% |
| Nice 0-1 Lille | 14.3% |
| Nice 0-3 Lille | 10.6% |
| Nice 1-2 Lille | 8.8% |
| Nice 1-1 Lille | 8.3% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 0.58 expected goals for Nice and 2.11 for Lille, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 50% and "both teams to score" at 39%. Nice keep a clean sheet in 12% of scenarios, Lille in 56%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Nice expected goals | 0.58 |
| Lille expected goals | 2.11 |
| Both teams to score | 39% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% |
| Nice clean sheet | 12% |
| Lille clean sheet | 56% |
Recent form
Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.
Nice
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 12, 2026 | Auxerre · Ligue 1 | 0-1 | L |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Le Mans · Ligue 1 | 1-1 | D |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Paris FC · Ligue 1 | 0-3 | L |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Lorient · Ligue 1 | 0-0 | D |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Hull City · Club Friendlies | 0-0 | D |
Lille
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | Estac Troyes · Ligue 1 | 2-0 | W |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Real Betis · UEFA Champions League | 2-3 | L |
| Sep 3, 2026 | Toulouse · Ligue 1 | 1-0 | W |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Paris Saint Germain · Ligue 1 | 2-2 | D |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Angers · Ligue 1 | 2-0 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nice | 18 | 2 | 4 |
| Lille | 4 | 10 | 4 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 18, 2026 | Lille 0-0 Nice | Ligue 1 |
| Oct 29, 2025 | Nice 2-0 Lille | Ligue 1 |
Out and doubtful
Nice
- L. Abergel (out)
- M. Bombito (out)
- A. Mendy (out)
- M. Sanson (out)
Lille
- H. Igamane (out)
- T. Nianzou (out)
Other matches in this competition
- Monaco 2-1 LensSep 18, 2026
- Paris FC 2-1 StrasbourgSep 19, 2026
- Toulouse 3-2 Le HavreSep 19, 2026
- Angers 2-0 Estac TroyesSep 19, 2026
- Lyon 4-0 RennesSep 19, 2026
- Le Mans 2-1 LorientSep 19, 2026
- Auxerre 2-1 Stade Brestois 29Sep 20, 2026
- Marseille 1-2 Paris Saint GermainSep 20, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Nice vs Lille prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Nice a 9% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Lille 73%. Lille are therefore favourites. Final score: 2-1.
What is the most likely correct score for Nice vs Lille?
0-2 (15.1%), followed by 0-1 (14.3%), 0-3 (10.6%), 1-2 (8.8%) and 1-1 (8.3%).
Will both teams score in Nice vs Lille?
The probability that both Nice and Lille score is 39%. Nice have a 12% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Lille 56%.
How many goals should we expect in Nice vs Lille?
The model expects 2.69 goals (0.58 for Nice, 2.11 for Lille). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 75%, over 2.5 goals 50%, over 3.5 goals 28%.
When and where is Nice vs Lille played?
Sunday, September 20, 2026 at 16:15 (UK time), Ligue 1, matchday 5. Venue: Allianz Riviera, Nice.
What form are Nice and Lille in?
Nice: 0 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (1 scored, 5 conceded). Lille: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 5 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Nice and Lille?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Nice, 0 for Lille and 1 draw. The most recent ended Lille 0-0 Nice (Apr 18, 2026).
What was the Nice vs Lille result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Nice 2-1 Lille. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Lille (73%), while victory for Nice was rated at only 9%. The model considered this score unlikely (2.4%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (39%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (50%): correct.
How is the Nice vs Lille prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (0.58 for Nice, 2.11 for Lille) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.