Skip to content
Elofoot

Ligue 1Ligue 1· Kick-off : Saturday, September 19, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)

Toulouse vs Le Havre: 3-2 result and AI prediction review

ToulouseToulouse3 – 2Le HavreLe Havre

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome correctExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 2-1

Final score: Toulouse 3-2 Le Havre. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Toulouse was the model's favourite outcome (63%). The model considered this score unlikely (3.5%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (56%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (61%): correct.

Match analysis

Toulouse vs Le Havre was played on Saturday, September 19, 2026 (Ligue 1, matchday 5). Venue: Stadium de Toulouse, Toulouse. Before kick-off, our model gave Toulouse a 63% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Le Havre 17%. The most likely correct score is 2-1 (9.9%), ahead of 2-0 (9.8%) and 1-1 (9.4%).

Toulouse have not won any of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 3 defeats), scoring 5 and conceding 9. Le Havre have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 3 and conceding 4. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Toulouse score 1.00 and concede 1.80 goals per game; Le Havre score 0.60 and concede 0.80. In the table, Toulouse sit 17th with 2 points from 4 games, Le Havre 16th with 2 points from 4. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Toulouse have averaged 1.96 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.10 for Le Havre.

In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Toulouse, 1 for Le Havre and 1 draw. The most recent ended Le Havre 2-1 Toulouse (Feb 15, 2026). Toulouse out or doubtful: A. Donnum, A. Francis and R. Nicolaisen. Le Havre: P. Argney, F. Mambimbi, L. Mpasi-Nzau, T. Pembele and A. Toure. In double chance terms, "Toulouse or draw" stands at 83%, "Le Havre or draw" at 37% and "no draw" at 80%.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

63%
Toulouse (Win)
20%
Draw
17%
Le Havre (Win)

Double chance

83%
Toulouse or draw
37%
Le Havre or draw
80%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Toulouse – Le Havre. 2-1 is the single most likely scoreline (9.9%); the 5 scores below add up to 45% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Toulouse 2-1 Le Havre9.9%
Toulouse 2-0 Le Havre9.8%
Toulouse 1-1 Le Havre9.4%
Toulouse 1-0 Le Havre9.3%
Toulouse 3-1 Le Havre7.0%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

The model expects 3.13 goals in total (2.12 for Toulouse, 1.01 for Le Havre): over 2.5 goals has a 61% probability and both teams to score 56%. Everything points to an open game. Toulouse keep a clean sheet in 36% of scenarios, Le Havre in 12%.

Probability
Toulouse expected goals2.12
Le Havre expected goals1.01
Both teams to score56%
Over 1.5 goals82%
Over 2.5 goals61%
Over 3.5 goals38%
Toulouse clean sheet36%
Le Havre clean sheet12%

Recent form

Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.

Toulouse

DateOpponentScore
Sep 12, 2026Lorient · Ligue 12-2D
Sep 3, 2026Lille · Ligue 10-1L
Aug 29, 2026Stade Brestois 29 · Ligue 12-2D
Aug 22, 2026Lyon · Ligue 10-2L
Aug 15, 2026Hamburger SV · Club Friendlies1-2L

Le Havre

DateOpponentScore
Sep 12, 2026Angers · Ligue 10-0D
Sep 5, 2026Stade Brestois 29 · Ligue 11-2L
Aug 29, 2026Lyon · Ligue 11-1D
Aug 23, 2026Monaco · Ligue 10-1L
Aug 15, 2026Le Mans · Club Friendlies1-0W

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Toulouse1724
Le Havre1624

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
Feb 15, 2026Le Havre 2-1 ToulouseLigue 1
Nov 2, 2025Toulouse 0-0 Le HavreLigue 1

Out and doubtful

Toulouse

  • A. Donnum (out)
  • A. Francis (out)
  • R. Nicolaisen (out)

Le Havre

  • P. Argney (out)
  • F. Mambimbi (out)
  • L. Mpasi-Nzau (out)
  • T. Pembele (out)
  • A. Toure (out)

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Toulouse vs Le Havre prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Toulouse a 63% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Le Havre 17%. Toulouse are therefore favourites. Final score: 3-2.

What is the most likely correct score for Toulouse vs Le Havre?

2-1 (9.9%), followed by 2-0 (9.8%), 1-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (9.3%) and 3-1 (7.0%).

Will both teams score in Toulouse vs Le Havre?

The probability that both Toulouse and Le Havre score is 56%. Toulouse have a 36% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Le Havre 12%.

How many goals should we expect in Toulouse vs Le Havre?

The model expects 3.13 goals (2.12 for Toulouse, 1.01 for Le Havre). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 82%, over 2.5 goals 61%, over 3.5 goals 38%.

When and where is Toulouse vs Le Havre played?

Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), Ligue 1, matchday 5. Venue: Stadium de Toulouse, Toulouse.

What form are Toulouse and Le Havre in?

Toulouse: 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 9 conceded). Le Havre: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (3 scored, 4 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Le Havre?

In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Toulouse, 1 for Le Havre and 1 draw. The most recent ended Le Havre 2-1 Toulouse (Feb 15, 2026).

What was the Toulouse vs Le Havre result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Toulouse 3-2 Le Havre. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Toulouse was the model's favourite outcome (63%). The model considered this score unlikely (3.5%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (56%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (61%): correct.

How is the Toulouse vs Le Havre prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.12 for Toulouse, 1.01 for Le Havre) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained