Ligue 1· Kick-off : Friday, September 18, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)
Monaco vs Lens: 2-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Monaco 2-1 Lens. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Monaco was the model's favourite outcome (47%). The exact score 2-1 was the most likely scoreline in our grid (9.3%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (67%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (70%): correct.
Match analysis
Monaco vs Lens was played on Friday, September 18, 2026 (Ligue 1, matchday 5). Venue: Stade Louis II, Monaco. Before kick-off, our model gave Monaco a 47% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Lens 28%. The most likely correct score is 2-1 (9.3%), ahead of 1-1 (8.4%) and 3-1 (6.8%).
Monaco are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (4 wins, 1 draw), scoring 10 and conceding 3. Over their last 5 matches, Lens have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 11 and conceding 9. Recent momentum is clearly with Monaco. On average Monaco score 2.00 and concede 0.60 goals per game; Lens score 2.20 and concede 1.80. In the table, Monaco sit 2nd with 10 points from 4 games, Lens 10th with 4 points from 4. 8 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Monaco have averaged 1.21 xG (expected goals) per match, against 2.55 for Lens.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Monaco, 1 for Lens and 0 draws. The most recent ended Lens 2-3 Monaco (Feb 21, 2026). Monaco out or doubtful: M. Coulibaly, A. Fati, S. Idumbo, A. Soubeir and J. Teze. Lens: S. Abdulhamid, S. Baidoo, J. Chavez, M. Nawrocki and S. Sagnan. In double chance terms, "Monaco or draw" stands at 72%, "Lens or draw" at 54% and "no draw" at 74%.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Monaco – Lens. 2-1 is the single most likely scoreline (9.3%); the 5 scores below add up to 38% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Monaco 2-1 Lens | 9.3% |
| Monaco 1-1 Lens | 8.4% |
| Monaco 3-1 Lens | 6.8% |
| Monaco 2-0 Lens | 6.7% |
| Monaco 2-2 Lens | 6.4% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 3.60 goals in total (2.21 for Monaco, 1.39 for Lens): over 2.5 goals has a 70% probability and both teams to score 67%. Everything points to an open game. Monaco keep a clean sheet in 25% of scenarios, Lens in 11%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Monaco expected goals | 2.21 |
| Lens expected goals | 1.39 |
| Both teams to score | 67% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 87% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 49% |
| Monaco clean sheet | 25% |
| Lens clean sheet | 11% |
Recent form
Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.
Monaco
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 12, 2026 | Strasbourg · Ligue 1 | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Paris Saint Germain · Ligue 1 | 2-1 | W |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Marseille · Ligue 1 | 2-0 | W |
| Aug 27, 2026 | Gornik Zabrze · UEFA Conference League | 4-1 | W |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Le Havre · Ligue 1 | 1-0 | W |
Lens
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | Le Mans · Ligue 1 | 2-2 | D |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Slavia Praha · UEFA Champions League | 3-2 | W |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Lorient · Ligue 1 | 0-1 | L |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Strasbourg · Ligue 1 | 1-2 | L |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Auxerre · Ligue 1 | 5-2 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monaco | 2 | 10 | 4 |
| Lens | 10 | 4 | 4 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 21, 2026 | Lens 2-3 Monaco | Ligue 1 |
| Nov 8, 2025 | Monaco 1-4 Lens | Ligue 1 |
Out and doubtful
Monaco
- M. Coulibaly (out)
- A. Fati (out)
- S. Idumbo (out)
- A. Soubeir (out)
- J. Teze (out)
Lens
- S. Abdulhamid (out)
- S. Baidoo (out)
- J. Chavez (out)
- M. Nawrocki (out)
- S. Sagnan (out)
Other matches in this competition
- Paris FC 2-1 StrasbourgSep 19, 2026
- Toulouse 3-2 Le HavreSep 19, 2026
- Angers 2-0 Estac TroyesSep 19, 2026
- Lyon 4-0 RennesSep 19, 2026
- Le Mans 2-1 LorientSep 19, 2026
- Auxerre 2-1 Stade Brestois 29Sep 20, 2026
- Nice 2-1 LilleSep 20, 2026
- Marseille 1-2 Paris Saint GermainSep 20, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Monaco vs Lens prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Monaco a 47% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Lens 28%. Monaco are therefore favourites. Final score: 2-1.
What is the most likely correct score for Monaco vs Lens?
2-1 (9.3%), followed by 1-1 (8.4%), 3-1 (6.8%), 2-0 (6.7%) and 2-2 (6.4%).
Will both teams score in Monaco vs Lens?
The probability that both Monaco and Lens score is 67%. Monaco have a 25% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Lens 11%.
How many goals should we expect in Monaco vs Lens?
The model expects 3.60 goals (2.21 for Monaco, 1.39 for Lens). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 87%, over 2.5 goals 70%, over 3.5 goals 49%.
When and where is Monaco vs Lens played?
Friday, September 18, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), Ligue 1, matchday 5. Venue: Stade Louis II, Monaco.
What form are Monaco and Lens in?
Monaco: 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 3 conceded). Lens: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (11 scored, 9 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Monaco and Lens?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Monaco, 1 for Lens and 0 draws. The most recent ended Lens 2-3 Monaco (Feb 21, 2026).
What was the Monaco vs Lens result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Monaco 2-1 Lens. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Monaco was the model's favourite outcome (47%). The exact score 2-1 was the most likely scoreline in our grid (9.3%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (67%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (70%): correct.
How is the Monaco vs Lens prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.21 for Monaco, 1.39 for Lens) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.