Ligue 1· Kick-off : Saturday, September 19, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)
Lyon vs Rennes: 4-0 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Lyon 4-0 Rennes. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Rennes (40%), while victory for Lyon was rated at only 39%. The model considered this score unlikely (1.2%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (74%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (76%): correct.
Match analysis
Lyon and Rennes met on Saturday, September 19, 2026, a Ligue 1, matchday 5 fixture. Venue: Parc Olympique Lyonnais, Lyon. Before kick-off, our model gave Lyon a 39% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Rennes 40%. On the correct score, 1-2 comes out on top (7.5%), followed by 1-1 (7.4%) and 2-2 (7.3%).
Over their last 5 matches, Lyon have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 7 and conceding 5. Rennes are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (3 wins, 2 draws), scoring 8 and conceding 5. Rennes therefore arrive in far better shape than Lyon. On average Lyon score 1.40 and concede 1.00 goals per game; Rennes score 1.60 and concede 1.00. In the table, Lyon sit 4th with 8 points from 4 games, Rennes 3rd with 10 points from 4. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Lyon have averaged 1.96 xG (expected goals) per match, against 2.00 for Rennes.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Lyon, 1 for Rennes and 0 draws. The most recent ended Lyon 4-2 Rennes (May 3, 2026). Lyon out or doubtful: Abner Vinicius and A. Hamdani. In double chance terms, "Lyon or draw" stands at 60%, "Rennes or draw" at 61% and "no draw" at 79%.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Lyon – Rennes. 1-2 is the single most likely scoreline (7.5%); the 5 scores below add up to 35% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Lyon 1-2 Rennes | 7.5% |
| Lyon 1-1 Rennes | 7.4% |
| Lyon 2-2 Rennes | 7.3% |
| Lyon 2-1 Rennes | 7.3% |
| Lyon 1-3 Rennes | 5.0% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.96 expected goals for Lyon and 2.01 for Rennes, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 76% and "both teams to score" at 74%. Goals look likely in this one. Lyon keep a clean sheet in 13% of scenarios, Rennes in 14%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Lyon expected goals | 1.96 |
| Rennes expected goals | 2.01 |
| Both teams to score | 74% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 91% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 76% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 56% |
| Lyon clean sheet | 13% |
| Rennes clean sheet | 14% |
Recent form
Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.
Lyon
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 16, 2026 | Anderlecht · UEFA Europa League | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Paris FC · Ligue 1 | 0-0 | D |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Auxerre · Ligue 1 | 3-1 | W |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Le Havre · Ligue 1 | 1-1 | D |
| Aug 26, 2026 | Fenerbahçe · UEFA Champions League | 1-2 | L |
Rennes
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 16, 2026 | Sturm Graz · UEFA Europa League | 0-0 | D |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Marseille · Ligue 1 | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Angers · Ligue 1 | 2-1 | W |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Le Mans · Ligue 1 | 3-2 | W |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Paris Saint Germain · Ligue 1 | 2-2 | D |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lyon | 4 | 8 | 4 |
| Rennes | 3 | 10 | 4 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Lyon 4-2 Rennes | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 14, 2025 | Rennes 3-1 Lyon | Ligue 1 |
Out and doubtful
Lyon
- Abner Vinicius (out)
- A. Hamdani (out)
Rennes
No absences reported.
Other matches in this competition
- Monaco 2-1 LensSep 18, 2026
- Paris FC 2-1 StrasbourgSep 19, 2026
- Toulouse 3-2 Le HavreSep 19, 2026
- Angers 2-0 Estac TroyesSep 19, 2026
- Le Mans 2-1 LorientSep 19, 2026
- Auxerre 2-1 Stade Brestois 29Sep 20, 2026
- Nice 2-1 LilleSep 20, 2026
- Marseille 1-2 Paris Saint GermainSep 20, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Lyon vs Rennes prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Lyon a 39% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Rennes 40%. Rennes are therefore slight favourites. Final score: 4-0.
What is the most likely correct score for Lyon vs Rennes?
1-2 (7.5%), followed by 1-1 (7.4%), 2-2 (7.3%), 2-1 (7.3%) and 1-3 (5.0%).
Will both teams score in Lyon vs Rennes?
The probability that both Lyon and Rennes score is 74%. Lyon have a 13% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Rennes 14%.
How many goals should we expect in Lyon vs Rennes?
The model expects 3.97 goals (1.96 for Lyon, 2.01 for Rennes). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 91%, over 2.5 goals 76%, over 3.5 goals 56%.
When and where is Lyon vs Rennes played?
Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), Ligue 1, matchday 5. Venue: Parc Olympique Lyonnais, Lyon.
What form are Lyon and Rennes in?
Lyon: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 5 conceded). Rennes: 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 5 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Lyon and Rennes?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Lyon, 1 for Rennes and 0 draws. The most recent ended Lyon 4-2 Rennes (May 3, 2026).
What was the Lyon vs Rennes result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Lyon 4-0 Rennes. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Rennes (40%), while victory for Lyon was rated at only 39%. The model considered this score unlikely (1.2%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (74%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (76%): correct.
How is the Lyon vs Rennes prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.96 for Lyon, 2.01 for Rennes) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.