Ligue 1· Kick-off : Sunday, September 6, 2026, 14:00 (UK time)
Estac Troyes vs Strasbourg: 2-6 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Estac Troyes 2-6 Strasbourg. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Estac Troyes (61%), while victory for Strasbourg was rated at only 16%. The model considered this score unlikely (0.0%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (43%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (45%): missed.
Match analysis
Estac Troyes and Strasbourg met on Sunday, September 6, 2026, a Ligue 1, matchday 3 fixture. Venue: Stade de l'Aube, Troyes. Before kick-off, our model gave Estac Troyes a 61% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Strasbourg 16%. On the correct score, 1-0 comes out on top (14.6%), followed by 2-0 (12.7%) and 1-1 (10.8%).
Estac Troyes are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (2 wins, 3 draws), scoring 9 and conceding 5. Strasbourg have won just one of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 3 defeats), scoring 5 and conceding 13. Estac Troyes therefore arrive in far better shape than Strasbourg. On average Estac Troyes score 1.80 and concede 1.00 goals per game; Strasbourg score 1.00 and concede 2.60. In the table, Estac Troyes sit 7th with 4 points from 2 games, Strasbourg 12th with 3 points from 2. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Estac Troyes have averaged 1.27 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.01 for Strasbourg.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Estac Troyes, 1 for Strasbourg and 3 draws. Estac Troyes out or doubtful: I. Boura, P. Gozzi and Y. Titi. Strasbourg: S. El Mourabet, M. Godo, M. Oyedele, J. Panichelli and I. Doukoure. In double chance terms, "Estac Troyes or draw" stands at 84%, "Strasbourg or draw" at 39% and "no draw" at 77%.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Estac Troyes – Strasbourg. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (14.6%); the 5 scores below add up to 56% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Estac Troyes 1-0 Strasbourg | 14.6% |
| Estac Troyes 2-0 Strasbourg | 12.7% |
| Estac Troyes 1-1 Strasbourg | 10.8% |
| Estac Troyes 2-1 Strasbourg | 9.4% |
| Estac Troyes 0-0 Strasbourg | 8.5% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.73 expected goals for Estac Troyes and 0.74 for Strasbourg, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 45% and "both teams to score" at 43%. Estac Troyes keep a clean sheet in 48% of scenarios, Strasbourg in 18%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Estac Troyes expected goals | 1.73 |
| Strasbourg expected goals | 0.74 |
| Both teams to score | 43% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% |
| Estac Troyes clean sheet | 48% |
| Strasbourg clean sheet | 18% |
Recent form
Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.
Estac Troyes
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 29, 2026 | Lorient · Ligue 1 | 2-1 | W |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Paris FC · Ligue 1 | 0-0 | D |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Panetolikos · Club Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Auxerre · Club Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Chasselay MDA · Club Friendlies | 5-2 | W |
Strasbourg
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 29, 2026 | Lens · Ligue 1 | 2-1 | W |
| Aug 21, 2026 | Marseille · Ligue 1 | 0-4 | L |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Newcastle · Club Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
| Aug 8, 2026 | SC Freiburg · Club Friendlies | 0-2 | L |
| Aug 4, 2026 | SV Elversberg · Club Friendlies | 2-5 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Estac Troyes | 7 | 4 | 2 |
| Strasbourg | 12 | 3 | 2 |
Head-to-head
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Estac Troyes, 1 for Strasbourg and 3 draws.
Out and doubtful
Estac Troyes
- I. Boura (out)
- P. Gozzi (out)
- Y. Titi (out)
Strasbourg
- S. El Mourabet (out)
- M. Godo (out)
- M. Oyedele (out)
- J. Panichelli (out)
- I. Doukoure (out)
Other matches in this competition
- Toulouse 0-1 LilleSep 3, 2026
- Lyon 3-1 AuxerreSep 4, 2026
- Paris Saint Germain 1-2 MonacoSep 4, 2026
- Lens 0-1 LorientSep 5, 2026
- Nice 1-1 Le MansSep 5, 2026
- Le Havre 1-2 Stade Brestois 29Sep 5, 2026
- Angers 1-2 RennesSep 6, 2026
- Marseille 2-3 Paris FCSep 6, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Estac Troyes vs Strasbourg prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Estac Troyes a 61% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Strasbourg 16%. Estac Troyes are therefore favourites. Final score: 2-6.
What is the most likely correct score for Estac Troyes vs Strasbourg?
1-0 (14.6%), followed by 2-0 (12.7%), 1-1 (10.8%), 2-1 (9.4%) and 0-0 (8.5%).
Will both teams score in Estac Troyes vs Strasbourg?
The probability that both Estac Troyes and Strasbourg score is 43%. Estac Troyes have a 48% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Strasbourg 18%.
How many goals should we expect in Estac Troyes vs Strasbourg?
The model expects 2.47 goals (1.73 for Estac Troyes, 0.74 for Strasbourg). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 71%, over 2.5 goals 45%, over 3.5 goals 24%.
When and where is Estac Troyes vs Strasbourg played?
Sunday, September 6, 2026 at 14:00 (UK time), Ligue 1, matchday 3. Venue: Stade de l'Aube, Troyes.
What form are Estac Troyes and Strasbourg in?
Estac Troyes: 2 wins, 3 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 5 conceded). Strasbourg: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 13 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Estac Troyes and Strasbourg?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Estac Troyes, 1 for Strasbourg and 3 draws.
What was the Estac Troyes vs Strasbourg result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Estac Troyes 2-6 Strasbourg. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Estac Troyes (61%), while victory for Strasbourg was rated at only 16%. The model considered this score unlikely (0.0%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (43%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (45%): missed.
How is the Estac Troyes vs Strasbourg prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.73 for Estac Troyes, 0.74 for Strasbourg) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Estac Troyes predictions
- All Strasbourg predictions
- Ligue 1 predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology