Ligue 1· Kick-off : Saturday, September 5, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)
Nice vs Le Mans: 1-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Nice 1-1 Le Mans. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Le Mans (52%), while a draw was rated at only 24%. The exact score 1-1 was the most likely scoreline in our grid (11.6%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (52%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (50%): missed.
Match analysis
Nice and Le Mans met on Saturday, September 5, 2026, a Ligue 1, matchday 3 fixture. Venue: Allianz Riviera, Nice. Before kick-off, our model gave Nice a 24% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Le Mans 52%. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (11.6%), followed by 0-1 (11.3%) and 1-2 (9.6%).
Nice have not won any of their last 5 matches (3 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 0 and conceding 5. Le Mans have not won any of their last 5 matches (3 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 5 and conceding 7. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Nice score 0.00 and concede 1.00 goals per game; Le Mans score 1.00 and concede 1.40. In the table, Nice sit 17th with 1 points from 2 games, Le Mans 13th with 1 points from 2. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Nice have averaged 0.92 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.86 for Le Mans.
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Nice, 1 for Le Mans and 0 draws. Nice out or doubtful: A. Abdi, L. Abergel, M. Bombito and M. Sanson. Le Mans: Y. Larouci, D. Sidibe, E. Colas, N. Kocik and S. Yohou. In double chance terms, "Nice or draw" stands at 48%, "Le Mans or draw" at 76% and "no draw" at 76%.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Nice – Le Mans. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (11.6%); the 5 scores below add up to 49% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Nice 1-1 Le Mans | 11.6% |
| Nice 0-1 Le Mans | 11.3% |
| Nice 1-2 Le Mans | 9.6% |
| Nice 0-2 Le Mans | 9.4% |
| Nice 1-0 Le Mans | 7.0% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.03 expected goals for Nice and 1.66 for Le Mans, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 50% and "both teams to score" at 52%. Nice keep a clean sheet in 19% of scenarios, Le Mans in 36%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Nice expected goals | 1.03 |
| Le Mans expected goals | 1.66 |
| Both teams to score | 52% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% |
| Nice clean sheet | 19% |
| Le Mans clean sheet | 36% |
Recent form
Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.
Nice
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 30, 2026 | Paris FC · Ligue 1 | 0-3 | L |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Lorient · Ligue 1 | 0-0 | D |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Hull City · Club Friendlies | 0-0 | D |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Cagliari · Club Friendlies | 0-0 | D |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Juventus · Club Friendlies | 0-2 | L |
Le Mans
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 30, 2026 | Rennes · Ligue 1 | 2-3 | L |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Stade Brestois 29 · Ligue 1 | 2-2 | D |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Le Havre · Club Friendlies | 0-1 | L |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Saumur · Club Friendlies | 0-0 | D |
| Aug 8, 2026 | UNFP · Club Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nice | 17 | 1 | 2 |
| Le Mans | 13 | 1 | 2 |
Head-to-head
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Nice, 1 for Le Mans and 0 draws.
Out and doubtful
Nice
- A. Abdi (out)
- L. Abergel (out)
- M. Bombito (out)
- M. Sanson (out)
Le Mans
- Y. Larouci (out)
- D. Sidibe (out)
- E. Colas (out)
- N. Kocik (out)
- S. Yohou (out)
Other matches in this competition
- Toulouse 0-1 LilleSep 3, 2026
- Lyon 3-1 AuxerreSep 4, 2026
- Paris Saint Germain 1-2 MonacoSep 4, 2026
- Lens 0-1 LorientSep 5, 2026
- Le Havre 1-2 Stade Brestois 29Sep 5, 2026
- Estac Troyes 2-6 StrasbourgSep 6, 2026
- Angers 1-2 RennesSep 6, 2026
- Marseille 2-3 Paris FCSep 6, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Nice vs Le Mans prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Nice a 24% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Le Mans 52%. Le Mans are therefore favourites. Final score: 1-1.
What is the most likely correct score for Nice vs Le Mans?
1-1 (11.6%), followed by 0-1 (11.3%), 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (9.4%) and 1-0 (7.0%).
Will both teams score in Nice vs Le Mans?
The probability that both Nice and Le Mans score is 52%. Nice have a 19% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Le Mans 36%.
How many goals should we expect in Nice vs Le Mans?
The model expects 2.69 goals (1.03 for Nice, 1.66 for Le Mans). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 75%, over 2.5 goals 50%, over 3.5 goals 28%.
When and where is Nice vs Le Mans played?
Saturday, September 5, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), Ligue 1, matchday 3. Venue: Allianz Riviera, Nice.
What form are Nice and Le Mans in?
Nice: 0 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (0 scored, 5 conceded). Le Mans: 0 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 7 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Nice and Le Mans?
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Nice, 1 for Le Mans and 0 draws.
What was the Nice vs Le Mans result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Nice 1-1 Le Mans. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Le Mans (52%), while a draw was rated at only 24%. The exact score 1-1 was the most likely scoreline in our grid (11.6%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (52%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (50%): missed.
How is the Nice vs Le Mans prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.03 for Nice, 1.66 for Le Mans) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.