Ligue 1· Kick-off : Friday, September 4, 2026, 18:00 (UK time)
Lyon vs Auxerre: 3-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Lyon 3-1 Auxerre. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Lyon was the model's favourite outcome (66%). The final score ranked 6th among the most likely scorelines (7.5%), behind 2-0. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (56%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (64%): correct.
Match analysis
Lyon vs Auxerre was played on Friday, September 4, 2026 (Ligue 1, matchday 3). Venue: Parc Olympique Lyonnais, Lyon. Before kick-off, our model gave Lyon a 66% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Auxerre 13%. The most likely correct score is 2-0 (10.0%), ahead of 2-1 (9.8%) and 1-0 (8.7%).
Over their last 5 matches, Lyon have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 8 and conceding 4. Auxerre have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 6 and conceding 10. Recent momentum is clearly with Lyon. On average Lyon score 1.60 and concede 0.80 goals per game; Auxerre score 1.20 and concede 2.00. In the table, Lyon sit 4th with 4 points from 2 games, Auxerre 18th with 0 points from 2. 14 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Lyon have averaged 1.23 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.83 for Auxerre.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Lyon, 0 for Auxerre and 1 draw. The most recent ended Lyon 3-2 Auxerre (Apr 25, 2026). Lyon out or doubtful: J. Duranville. Auxerre: A. Diousse, S. Fofana, B. Okoh, M. Senaya and F. Sierralta. In double chance terms, "Lyon or draw" stands at 87%, "Auxerre or draw" at 34% and "no draw" at 79%.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Lyon – Auxerre. 2-0 is the single most likely scoreline (10.0%); the 5 scores below add up to 45% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Lyon 2-0 Auxerre | 10.0% |
| Lyon 2-1 Auxerre | 9.8% |
| Lyon 1-0 Auxerre | 8.7% |
| Lyon 1-1 Auxerre | 8.5% |
| Lyon 3-0 Auxerre | 7.6% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 3.27 goals in total (2.29 for Lyon, 0.98 for Auxerre): over 2.5 goals has a 64% probability and both teams to score 56%. Everything points to an open game. Lyon keep a clean sheet in 38% of scenarios, Auxerre in 10%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Lyon expected goals | 2.29 |
| Auxerre expected goals | 0.98 |
| Both teams to score | 56% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41% |
| Lyon clean sheet | 38% |
| Auxerre clean sheet | 10% |
Recent form
Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.
Lyon
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 29, 2026 | Le Havre · Ligue 1 | 1-1 | D |
| Aug 26, 2026 | Fenerbahçe · UEFA Champions League | 1-2 | L |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Toulouse · Ligue 1 | 2-0 | W |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Fenerbahçe · UEFA Champions League | 1-1 | D |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Sparta Praha · UEFA Champions League | 3-0 | W |
Auxerre
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 29, 2026 | Angers · Ligue 1 | 1-3 | L |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Lens · Ligue 1 | 2-5 | L |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Werder Bremen · Club Friendlies | 1-0 | W |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Estac Troyes · Club Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Sochaux · Club Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lyon | 4 | 4 | 2 |
| Auxerre | 18 | 0 | 2 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 25, 2026 | Lyon 3-2 Auxerre | Ligue 1 |
| Nov 23, 2025 | Auxerre 0-0 Lyon | Ligue 1 |
Out and doubtful
Lyon
- J. Duranville (out)
Auxerre
- A. Diousse (out)
- S. Fofana (out)
- B. Okoh (out)
- M. Senaya (out)
- F. Sierralta (out)
Other matches in this competition
- Toulouse 0-1 LilleSep 3, 2026
- Paris Saint Germain 1-2 MonacoSep 4, 2026
- Lens 0-1 LorientSep 5, 2026
- Nice 1-1 Le MansSep 5, 2026
- Le Havre 1-2 Stade Brestois 29Sep 5, 2026
- Estac Troyes 2-6 StrasbourgSep 6, 2026
- Angers 1-2 RennesSep 6, 2026
- Marseille 2-3 Paris FCSep 6, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Lyon vs Auxerre prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Lyon a 66% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Auxerre 13%. Lyon are therefore favourites. Final score: 3-1.
What is the most likely correct score for Lyon vs Auxerre?
2-0 (10.0%), followed by 2-1 (9.8%), 1-0 (8.7%), 1-1 (8.5%) and 3-0 (7.6%).
Will both teams score in Lyon vs Auxerre?
The probability that both Lyon and Auxerre score is 56%. Lyon have a 38% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Auxerre 10%.
How many goals should we expect in Lyon vs Auxerre?
The model expects 3.27 goals (2.29 for Lyon, 0.98 for Auxerre). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 84%, over 2.5 goals 64%, over 3.5 goals 41%.
When and where is Lyon vs Auxerre played?
Friday, September 4, 2026 at 18:00 (UK time), Ligue 1, matchday 3. Venue: Parc Olympique Lyonnais, Lyon.
What form are Lyon and Auxerre in?
Lyon: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 4 conceded). Auxerre: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 10 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Lyon and Auxerre?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Lyon, 0 for Auxerre and 1 draw. The most recent ended Lyon 3-2 Auxerre (Apr 25, 2026).
What was the Lyon vs Auxerre result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Lyon 3-1 Auxerre. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Lyon was the model's favourite outcome (66%). The final score ranked 6th among the most likely scorelines (7.5%), behind 2-0. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (56%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (64%): correct.
How is the Lyon vs Auxerre prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.29 for Lyon, 0.98 for Auxerre) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.