Ligue 1· Kick-off : Thursday, September 3, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)
Toulouse vs Lille: 0-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Toulouse 0-1 Lille. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Lille at 48%. The final score ranked 3rd among the most likely scorelines (7.8%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (62%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (62%): missed.
Match analysis
Toulouse and Lille met on Thursday, September 3, 2026, a Ligue 1, matchday 3 fixture. Venue: Stadium de Toulouse, Toulouse. Before kick-off, our model gave Toulouse a 24% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Lille 48%. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (10.2%), followed by 1-2 (9.5%) and 0-1 (7.8%).
Toulouse have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 6 and conceding 8. Lille are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (2 wins, 3 draws), scoring 13 and conceding 8. Lille therefore arrive in far better shape than Toulouse. On average Toulouse score 1.20 and concede 1.60 goals per game; Lille score 2.60 and concede 1.60. In the table, Toulouse sit 16th with 1 points from 2 games, Lille 3rd with 4 points from 2. 13 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Toulouse have averaged 1.96 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.25 for Lille.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Toulouse, 2 for Lille and 0 draws. The most recent ended Toulouse 0-4 Lille (Apr 12, 2026). Toulouse out or doubtful: A. Donnum, A. Francis and N. Sigur. Lille: H. Igamane and T. Nianzou. In double chance terms, "Toulouse or draw" stands at 53%, "Lille or draw" at 76% and "no draw" at 72%.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Toulouse – Lille. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (10.2%); the 5 scores below add up to 42% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Toulouse 1-1 Lille | 10.2% |
| Toulouse 1-2 Lille | 9.5% |
| Toulouse 0-1 Lille | 7.8% |
| Toulouse 0-2 Lille | 7.3% |
| Toulouse 2-1 Lille | 6.7% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.31 expected goals for Toulouse and 1.87 for Lille, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 62% and "both teams to score" at 62%. Goals look likely in this one. Toulouse keep a clean sheet in 15% of scenarios, Lille in 27%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Toulouse expected goals | 1.31 |
| Lille expected goals | 1.87 |
| Both teams to score | 62% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% |
| Toulouse clean sheet | 15% |
| Lille clean sheet | 27% |
Recent form
Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.
Toulouse
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 29, 2026 | Stade Brestois 29 · Ligue 1 | 2-2 | D |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Lyon · Ligue 1 | 0-2 | L |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Hamburger SV · Club Friendlies | 1-2 | L |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Real Sociedad · Club Friendlies | 2-1 | W |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Rodez · Club Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
Lille
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 28, 2026 | Paris Saint Germain · Ligue 1 | 2-2 | D |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Angers · Ligue 1 | 2-0 | W |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Everton · Club Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Hamburger SV · Club Friendlies | 2-2 | D |
| Aug 1, 2026 | OH Leuven · Club Friendlies | 6-3 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toulouse | 16 | 1 | 2 |
| Lille | 3 | 4 | 2 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 12, 2026 | Toulouse 0-4 Lille | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 14, 2025 | Lille 2-1 Toulouse | Ligue 1 |
Out and doubtful
Toulouse
- A. Donnum (out)
- A. Francis (out)
- N. Sigur (out)
Lille
- H. Igamane (out)
- T. Nianzou (out)
Other matches in this competition
- Monaco 2-0 MarseilleAug 30, 2026
- Lyon 3-1 AuxerreSep 4, 2026
- Paris Saint Germain 1-2 MonacoSep 4, 2026
- Lens 0-1 LorientSep 5, 2026
- Nice 1-1 Le MansSep 5, 2026
- Le Havre 1-2 Stade Brestois 29Sep 5, 2026
- Estac Troyes 2-6 StrasbourgSep 6, 2026
- Angers 1-2 RennesSep 6, 2026
- Marseille 2-3 Paris FCSep 6, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Toulouse vs Lille prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Toulouse a 24% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Lille 48%. Lille are therefore favourites. Final score: 0-1.
What is the most likely correct score for Toulouse vs Lille?
1-1 (10.2%), followed by 1-2 (9.5%), 0-1 (7.8%), 0-2 (7.3%) and 2-1 (6.7%).
Will both teams score in Toulouse vs Lille?
The probability that both Toulouse and Lille score is 62%. Toulouse have a 15% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Lille 27%.
How many goals should we expect in Toulouse vs Lille?
The model expects 3.18 goals (1.31 for Toulouse, 1.87 for Lille). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 83%, over 2.5 goals 62%, over 3.5 goals 39%.
When and where is Toulouse vs Lille played?
Thursday, September 3, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), Ligue 1, matchday 3. Venue: Stadium de Toulouse, Toulouse.
What form are Toulouse and Lille in?
Toulouse: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 8 conceded). Lille: 2 wins, 3 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (13 scored, 8 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Lille?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Toulouse, 2 for Lille and 0 draws. The most recent ended Toulouse 0-4 Lille (Apr 12, 2026).
What was the Toulouse vs Lille result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Toulouse 0-1 Lille. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Lille at 48%. The final score ranked 3rd among the most likely scorelines (7.8%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (62%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (62%): missed.
How is the Toulouse vs Lille prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.31 for Toulouse, 1.87 for Lille) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.