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Ligue 1Ligue 1· Kick-off : Sunday, August 30, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)

Monaco vs Marseille: 2-0 result and AI prediction review

MonacoMonaco2 – 0MarseilleMarseille

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome missedExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 1-1

Final score: Monaco 2-0 Marseille. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Marseille (39%), while victory for Monaco was rated at only 38%. The final score ranked 8th among the most likely scorelines (5.2%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (64%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (62%): missed.

Match analysis

Monaco and Marseille met on Sunday, August 30, 2026, a Ligue 1, matchday 2 fixture. Venue: Stade Louis II, Monaco. Before kick-off, our model gave Monaco a 38% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Marseille 39%. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (10.4%), followed by 1-2 (8.4%) and 2-1 (8.3%).

Over their last 5 matches, Monaco have 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 11 and conceding 7. Over their last 5 matches, Marseille have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 10 and conceding 7. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Monaco score 2.20 and concede 1.40 goals per game; Marseille score 2.00 and concede 1.40. In the table, Monaco sit 6th with 3 points from 1 games, Marseille 4th with 3 points from 1. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Monaco have averaged 1.39 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.86 for Marseille.

In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Monaco, 1 for Marseille and 0 draws. The most recent ended Monaco 2-1 Marseille (Apr 5, 2026). Monaco out or doubtful: F. Balogun, A. Fati, T. Minamino and M. Salisu. Marseille: L. Balerdi and I. Paixao. In double chance terms, "Monaco or draw" stands at 61%, "Marseille or draw" at 62% and "no draw" at 77%.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

38%
Monaco (Win)
23%
Draw
39%
Marseille (Win)

Double chance

61%
Monaco or draw
62%
Marseille or draw
77%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Monaco – Marseille. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (10.4%); the 5 scores below add up to 40% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Monaco 1-1 Marseille10.4%
Monaco 1-2 Marseille8.4%
Monaco 2-1 Marseille8.3%
Monaco 2-2 Marseille6.7%
Monaco 0-1 Marseille6.5%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

With 1.60 expected goals for Monaco and 1.61 for Marseille, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 62% and "both teams to score" at 64%. Goals look likely in this one. Monaco keep a clean sheet in 20% of scenarios, Marseille in 20%.

Probability
Monaco expected goals1.60
Marseille expected goals1.61
Both teams to score64%
Over 1.5 goals83%
Over 2.5 goals62%
Over 3.5 goals40%
Monaco clean sheet20%
Marseille clean sheet20%

Recent form

Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.

Monaco

DateOpponentScore
Aug 27, 2026Gornik Zabrze · UEFA Conference League4-1W
Aug 23, 2026Le Havre · Ligue 11-0W
Aug 20, 2026Gornik Zabrze · UEFA Conference League3-2W
Aug 14, 2026Coventry · Club Friendlies0-2L
Aug 9, 2026Liverpool · Club Friendlies3-2W

Marseille

DateOpponentScore
Aug 21, 2026Strasbourg · Ligue 14-0W
Aug 14, 2026Atletico Madrid · Club Friendlies1-2L
Aug 9, 2026Athletic Club · Club Friendlies3-1W
Jul 30, 2026Nimes · Club Friendlies2-1W
Jul 25, 2026Nice · Club Friendlies0-3L

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Monaco631
Marseille431

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
Apr 5, 2026Monaco 2-1 MarseilleLigue 1
Dec 14, 2025Marseille 1-0 MonacoLigue 1

Out and doubtful

Monaco

  • F. Balogun (out)
  • A. Fati (out)
  • T. Minamino (out)
  • M. Salisu (out)

Marseille

  • L. Balerdi (out)
  • I. Paixao (out)

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Monaco vs Marseille prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Monaco a 38% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Marseille 39%. Marseille are therefore slight favourites. Final score: 2-0.

What is the most likely correct score for Monaco vs Marseille?

1-1 (10.4%), followed by 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.3%), 2-2 (6.7%) and 0-1 (6.5%).

Will both teams score in Monaco vs Marseille?

The probability that both Monaco and Marseille score is 64%. Monaco have a 20% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Marseille 20%.

How many goals should we expect in Monaco vs Marseille?

The model expects 3.21 goals (1.60 for Monaco, 1.61 for Marseille). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 83%, over 2.5 goals 62%, over 3.5 goals 40%.

When and where is Monaco vs Marseille played?

Sunday, August 30, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), Ligue 1, matchday 2. Venue: Stade Louis II, Monaco.

What form are Monaco and Marseille in?

Monaco: 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (11 scored, 7 conceded). Marseille: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 7 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Monaco and Marseille?

In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Monaco, 1 for Marseille and 0 draws. The most recent ended Monaco 2-1 Marseille (Apr 5, 2026).

What was the Monaco vs Marseille result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Monaco 2-0 Marseille. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Marseille (39%), while victory for Monaco was rated at only 38%. The final score ranked 8th among the most likely scorelines (5.2%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (64%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (62%): missed.

How is the Monaco vs Marseille prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.60 for Monaco, 1.61 for Marseille) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained