Ligue 1· Kick-off : Saturday, August 29, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)
Lyon vs Le Havre: 1-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Lyon 1-1 Le Havre. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Lyon (66%), while a draw was rated at only 26%. The final score ranked 5th among the most likely scorelines (7.6%), behind 1-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (20%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (25%): correct.
Match analysis
Lyon vs Le Havre was played on Saturday, August 29, 2026 (Ligue 1, matchday 2). Venue: Parc Olympique Lyonnais, Lyon. Before kick-off, our model gave Lyon a 66% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Le Havre 8%. The most likely correct score is 1-0 (25.4%), ahead of 2-0 (18.1%) and 0-0 (17.9%).
Over their last 5 matches, Lyon have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 8 and conceding 5. Le Havre have won just one of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 3 defeats), scoring 4 and conceding 6. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Lyon score 1.60 and concede 1.00 goals per game; Le Havre score 0.80 and concede 1.20. In the table, Lyon sit 4th with 3 points from 1 games, Le Havre 14th with 0 points from 1. 10 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Lyon have averaged 0.70 xG (expected goals) per match, against 0.60 for Le Havre.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Lyon, 0 for Le Havre and 1 draw. The most recent ended Le Havre 0-0 Lyon (Mar 15, 2026). Lyon out or doubtful: K. Merah and Abner Vinicius. Le Havre: F. Mambimbi, A. Toure, S. Zagadou and Y. Zouaoui. In double chance terms, "Lyon or draw" stands at 92%, "Le Havre or draw" at 34% and "no draw" at 74%.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Lyon – Le Havre. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (25.4%); the 5 scores below add up to 77% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Lyon 1-0 Le Havre | 25.4% |
| Lyon 2-0 Le Havre | 18.1% |
| Lyon 0-0 Le Havre | 17.9% |
| Lyon 3-0 Le Havre | 8.5% |
| Lyon 1-1 Le Havre | 7.6% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 1.72 goals in total (1.42 for Lyon, 0.30 for Le Havre): over 2.5 goals has a 25% probability and both teams to score 20%. A tight, low-scoring game is on the cards. Lyon keep a clean sheet in 74% of scenarios, Le Havre in 24%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Lyon expected goals | 1.42 |
| Le Havre expected goals | 0.30 |
| Both teams to score | 20% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 51% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 25% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 10% |
| Lyon clean sheet | 74% |
| Le Havre clean sheet | 24% |
Recent form
Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.
Lyon
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2026 | Fenerbahçe · UEFA Champions League | 1-2 | L |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Toulouse · Ligue 1 | 2-0 | W |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Fenerbahçe · UEFA Champions League | 1-1 | D |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Sparta Praha · UEFA Champions League | 3-0 | W |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Sparta Praha · UEFA Champions League | 1-2 | L |
Le Havre
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Monaco · Ligue 1 | 0-1 | L |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Le Mans · Club Friendlies | 1-0 | W |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Oviedo · Club Friendlies | 2-3 | L |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Ipswich · Club Friendlies | 0-1 | L |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Laval · Club Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lyon | 4 | 3 | 1 |
| Le Havre | 14 | 0 | 1 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2026 | Le Havre 0-0 Lyon | Ligue 1 |
| Dec 14, 2025 | Lyon 1-0 Le Havre | Ligue 1 |
Out and doubtful
Lyon
- K. Merah (out)
- Abner Vinicius (out)
Le Havre
- F. Mambimbi (out)
- A. Toure (out)
- S. Zagadou (out)
- Y. Zouaoui (out)
Other matches in this competition
- Lille 2-2 Paris Saint GermainAug 28, 2026
- Strasbourg 2-1 LensAug 29, 2026
- Lorient 1-2 Estac TroyesAug 29, 2026
- Auxerre 1-3 AngersAug 29, 2026
- Stade Brestois 29 2-2 ToulouseAug 29, 2026
- Paris FC 3-0 NiceAug 30, 2026
- Rennes 3-2 Le MansAug 30, 2026
- Monaco 2-0 MarseilleAug 30, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Lyon vs Le Havre prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Lyon a 66% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Le Havre 8%. Lyon are therefore favourites. Final score: 1-1.
What is the most likely correct score for Lyon vs Le Havre?
1-0 (25.4%), followed by 2-0 (18.1%), 0-0 (17.9%), 3-0 (8.5%) and 1-1 (7.6%).
Will both teams score in Lyon vs Le Havre?
The probability that both Lyon and Le Havre score is 20%. Lyon have a 74% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Le Havre 24%.
How many goals should we expect in Lyon vs Le Havre?
The model expects 1.72 goals (1.42 for Lyon, 0.30 for Le Havre). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 51%, over 2.5 goals 25%, over 3.5 goals 10%.
When and where is Lyon vs Le Havre played?
Saturday, August 29, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), Ligue 1, matchday 2. Venue: Parc Olympique Lyonnais, Lyon.
What form are Lyon and Le Havre in?
Lyon: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 5 conceded). Le Havre: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 6 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Lyon and Le Havre?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Lyon, 0 for Le Havre and 1 draw. The most recent ended Le Havre 0-0 Lyon (Mar 15, 2026).
What was the Lyon vs Le Havre result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Lyon 1-1 Le Havre. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Lyon (66%), while a draw was rated at only 26%. The final score ranked 5th among the most likely scorelines (7.6%), behind 1-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (20%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (25%): correct.
How is the Lyon vs Le Havre prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.42 for Lyon, 0.30 for Le Havre) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.