Ligue 1· Kick-off : Friday, August 28, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)
Lille vs Paris Saint Germain: 2-2 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Lille 2-2 Paris Saint Germain. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Paris Saint Germain (56%), while a draw was rated at only 24%. The final score ranked 10th among the most likely scorelines (4.4%), behind 0-1. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (49%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (48%): missed.
Match analysis
Lille vs Paris Saint Germain was played on Friday, August 28, 2026 (Ligue 1, matchday 2). Venue: Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Lille. Before kick-off, our model gave Lille a 20% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Paris Saint Germain 56%. The most likely correct score is 0-1 (12.5%), ahead of 1-1 (11.4%) and 0-2 (10.6%).
Over their last 5 matches, Lille have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 12 and conceding 8. Paris Saint Germain have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 5 and conceding 8. Recent momentum is clearly with Lille. On average Lille score 2.40 and concede 1.60 goals per game; Paris Saint Germain score 1.00 and concede 1.60. In the table, Lille sit 3rd with 3 points from 1 games, Paris Saint Germain 8th with 1 points from 1. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Lille have averaged 1.24 xG (expected goals) per match, against 2.16 for Paris Saint Germain.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Lille, 1 for Paris Saint Germain and 1 draw. The most recent ended Paris Saint Germain 3-0 Lille (Jan 16, 2026). Lille out or doubtful: B. Andre, M. Fernandez-Pardo, H. Igamane and T. Nianzou. Paris Saint Germain: B. Barcola, I. Mbaye, N. Mendes and O. Dembele. In double chance terms, "Lille or draw" stands at 44%, "Paris Saint Germain or draw" at 80% and "no draw" at 76%.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Lille – Paris Saint Germain. 0-1 is the single most likely scoreline (12.5%); the 5 scores below add up to 52% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Lille 0-1 Paris Saint Germain | 12.5% |
| Lille 1-1 Paris Saint Germain | 11.4% |
| Lille 0-2 Paris Saint Germain | 10.6% |
| Lille 1-2 Paris Saint Germain | 9.7% |
| Lille 0-0 Paris Saint Germain | 7.4% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.61 goals in total (0.91 for Lille, 1.70 for Paris Saint Germain): over 2.5 goals has a 48% probability and both teams to score 49%. Lille keep a clean sheet in 18% of scenarios, Paris Saint Germain in 40%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Lille expected goals | 0.91 |
| Paris Saint Germain expected goals | 1.70 |
| Both teams to score | 49% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% |
| Lille clean sheet | 18% |
| Paris Saint Germain clean sheet | 40% |
Recent form
Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.
Lille
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Angers · Ligue 1 | 2-0 | W |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Everton · Club Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Hamburger SV · Club Friendlies | 2-2 | D |
| Aug 1, 2026 | OH Leuven · Club Friendlies | 6-3 | W |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Union St. Gilloise · Club Friendlies | 1-2 | L |
Paris Saint Germain
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Rennes · Ligue 1 | 2-2 | D |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Lens · Trophée des Champions | 0-1 | L |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Aston Villa · UEFA Super Cup | 2-1 | W |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Manchester United · Club Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Mallorca · Club Friendlies | 0-3 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lille | 3 | 3 | 1 |
| Paris Saint Germain | 8 | 1 | 1 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 16, 2026 | Paris Saint Germain 3-0 Lille | Ligue 1 |
| Oct 5, 2025 | Lille 1-1 Paris Saint Germain | Ligue 1 |
Out and doubtful
Lille
- B. Andre (out)
- M. Fernandez-Pardo (out)
- H. Igamane (out)
- T. Nianzou (out)
Paris Saint Germain
- B. Barcola (out)
- I. Mbaye (out)
- N. Mendes (out)
- O. Dembele (out)
Other matches in this competition
- Strasbourg 2-1 LensAug 29, 2026
- Lorient 1-2 Estac TroyesAug 29, 2026
- Lyon 1-1 Le HavreAug 29, 2026
- Auxerre 1-3 AngersAug 29, 2026
- Stade Brestois 29 2-2 ToulouseAug 29, 2026
- Paris FC 3-0 NiceAug 30, 2026
- Rennes 3-2 Le MansAug 30, 2026
- Monaco 2-0 MarseilleAug 30, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Lille vs Paris Saint Germain prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Lille a 20% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Paris Saint Germain 56%. Paris Saint Germain are therefore favourites. Final score: 2-2.
What is the most likely correct score for Lille vs Paris Saint Germain?
0-1 (12.5%), followed by 1-1 (11.4%), 0-2 (10.6%), 1-2 (9.7%) and 0-0 (7.4%).
Will both teams score in Lille vs Paris Saint Germain?
The probability that both Lille and Paris Saint Germain score is 49%. Lille have a 18% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Paris Saint Germain 40%.
How many goals should we expect in Lille vs Paris Saint Germain?
The model expects 2.61 goals (0.91 for Lille, 1.70 for Paris Saint Germain). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 74%, over 2.5 goals 48%, over 3.5 goals 27%.
When and where is Lille vs Paris Saint Germain played?
Friday, August 28, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), Ligue 1, matchday 2. Venue: Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Lille.
What form are Lille and Paris Saint Germain in?
Lille: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (12 scored, 8 conceded). Paris Saint Germain: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 8 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Lille and Paris Saint Germain?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Lille, 1 for Paris Saint Germain and 1 draw. The most recent ended Paris Saint Germain 3-0 Lille (Jan 16, 2026).
What was the Lille vs Paris Saint Germain result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Lille 2-2 Paris Saint Germain. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Paris Saint Germain (56%), while a draw was rated at only 24%. The final score ranked 10th among the most likely scorelines (4.4%), behind 0-1. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (49%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (48%): missed.
How is the Lille vs Paris Saint Germain prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (0.91 for Lille, 1.70 for Paris Saint Germain) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Lille predictions
- All Paris Saint Germain predictions
- Ligue 1 predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology