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Ligue 1Ligue 1· Kick-off : Saturday, August 29, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)

Lorient vs Estac Troyes: 1-2 result and AI prediction review

LorientLorient1 – 2Estac TroyesEstac Troyes

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome missedExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 1-0

Final score: Lorient 1-2 Estac Troyes. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Lorient (63%), while victory for Estac Troyes was rated at only 10%. The final score ranked 10th among the most likely scorelines (1.7%), behind 1-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (24%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (27%): missed.

Match analysis

Lorient vs Estac Troyes was played on Saturday, August 29, 2026 (Ligue 1, matchday 2). Venue: Stade du Moustoir, Lorient. Before kick-off, our model gave Lorient a 63% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Estac Troyes 10%. The most likely correct score is 1-0 (23.5%), ahead of 0-0 (16.7%) and 2-0 (16.6%).

Over their last 5 matches, Lorient have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 9 and conceding 7. Estac Troyes are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (2 wins, 3 draws), scoring 10 and conceding 4. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Lorient score 1.80 and concede 1.40 goals per game; Estac Troyes score 2.00 and concede 0.80. In the table, Lorient sit 10th with 1 points from 1 games, Estac Troyes 13th with 1 points from 1. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Lorient have averaged 1.28 xG (expected goals) per match, against 0.42 for Estac Troyes.

In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 3 wins for Lorient, 0 for Estac Troyes and 2 draws. Lorient out or doubtful: M. Bamba. Estac Troyes: I. Boura, A. Fatah, I. Gomis and Y. Titi. In double chance terms, "Lorient or draw" stands at 90%, "Estac Troyes or draw" at 37% and "no draw" at 73%.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

63%
Lorient (Win)
27%
Draw
10%
Estac Troyes (Win)

Double chance

90%
Lorient or draw
37%
Estac Troyes or draw
73%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Lorient – Estac Troyes. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (23.5%); the 5 scores below add up to 74% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Lorient 1-0 Estac Troyes23.5%
Lorient 0-0 Estac Troyes16.7%
Lorient 2-0 Estac Troyes16.6%
Lorient 1-1 Estac Troyes8.9%
Lorient 3-0 Estac Troyes7.8%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

The model expects 1.79 goals in total (1.41 for Lorient, 0.38 for Estac Troyes): over 2.5 goals has a 27% probability and both teams to score 24%. A tight, low-scoring game is on the cards. Lorient keep a clean sheet in 68% of scenarios, Estac Troyes in 24%.

Probability
Lorient expected goals1.41
Estac Troyes expected goals0.38
Both teams to score24%
Over 1.5 goals53%
Over 2.5 goals27%
Over 3.5 goals11%
Lorient clean sheet68%
Estac Troyes clean sheet24%

Recent form

Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.

Lorient

DateOpponentScore
Aug 22, 2026Nice · Ligue 10-0D
Aug 15, 2026SV Elversberg · Club Friendlies1-4L
Aug 8, 2026Angers · Club Friendlies1-2L
Aug 4, 2026UNFP · Club Friendlies5-1W
Jul 25, 2026Guingamp · Club Friendlies2-0W

Estac Troyes

DateOpponentScore
Aug 22, 2026Paris FC · Ligue 10-0D
Aug 14, 2026Panetolikos · Club Friendlies1-1D
Aug 8, 2026Auxerre · Club Friendlies1-1D
Jul 31, 2026Chasselay MDA · Club Friendlies5-2W
Jul 25, 2026Grenoble · Club Friendlies3-0W

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Lorient1011
Estac Troyes1311

Head-to-head

In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 3 wins for Lorient, 0 for Estac Troyes and 2 draws.

Out and doubtful

Lorient

  • M. Bamba (out)

Estac Troyes

  • I. Boura (out)
  • A. Fatah (out)
  • I. Gomis (out)
  • Y. Titi (out)

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Lorient vs Estac Troyes prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Lorient a 63% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Estac Troyes 10%. Lorient are therefore favourites. Final score: 1-2.

What is the most likely correct score for Lorient vs Estac Troyes?

1-0 (23.5%), followed by 0-0 (16.7%), 2-0 (16.6%), 1-1 (8.9%) and 3-0 (7.8%).

Will both teams score in Lorient vs Estac Troyes?

The probability that both Lorient and Estac Troyes score is 24%. Lorient have a 68% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Estac Troyes 24%.

How many goals should we expect in Lorient vs Estac Troyes?

The model expects 1.79 goals (1.41 for Lorient, 0.38 for Estac Troyes). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 53%, over 2.5 goals 27%, over 3.5 goals 11%.

When and where is Lorient vs Estac Troyes played?

Saturday, August 29, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), Ligue 1, matchday 2. Venue: Stade du Moustoir, Lorient.

What form are Lorient and Estac Troyes in?

Lorient: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 7 conceded). Estac Troyes: 2 wins, 3 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 4 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Lorient and Estac Troyes?

In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 3 wins for Lorient, 0 for Estac Troyes and 2 draws.

What was the Lorient vs Estac Troyes result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Lorient 1-2 Estac Troyes. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Lorient (63%), while victory for Estac Troyes was rated at only 10%. The final score ranked 10th among the most likely scorelines (1.7%), behind 1-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (24%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (27%): missed.

How is the Lorient vs Estac Troyes prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.41 for Lorient, 0.38 for Estac Troyes) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained