Ligue 1· Kick-off : Saturday, August 29, 2026, 16:15 (UK time)
Strasbourg vs Lens: 2-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Strasbourg 2-1 Lens. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Lens (95%), while victory for Strasbourg was rated at only 1%. The model considered this score unlikely (0.2%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (22%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (80%): correct.
Match analysis
Strasbourg vs Lens was played on Saturday, August 29, 2026 (Ligue 1, matchday 2). Venue: Stade de la Meinau, Strasbourg. Before kick-off, our model gave Strasbourg a 1% chance of winning, the draw 4% and Lens 95%. The most likely correct score is 0-3 (15.2%), ahead of 0-4 (15.2%) and 0-5 (12.2%).
Strasbourg have not won any of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 4 defeats), scoring 6 and conceding 16. Over their last 5 matches, Lens have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 12 and conceding 7. Recent momentum is clearly with Lens. On average Strasbourg score 1.20 and concede 3.20 goals per game; Lens score 2.40 and concede 1.40. In the table, Strasbourg sit 18th with 0 points from 1 games, Lens 2nd with 3 points from 1. 16 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Strasbourg have averaged 0.18 xG (expected goals) per match, against 4.41 for Lens.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Strasbourg, 1 for Lens and 1 draw. The most recent ended Strasbourg 1-1 Lens (Feb 27, 2026). Strasbourg out or doubtful: S. El Mourabet, J. Panichelli, B. Chilwell, I. Doukoure and M. Godo. Lens: S. Abdulhamid, K. Antonio, S. Baidoo, J. Chavez and O. Edouard. In double chance terms, "Strasbourg or draw" stands at 5%, "Lens or draw" at 99% and "no draw" at 96%.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Strasbourg – Lens. 0-3 is the single most likely scoreline (15.2%); the 5 scores below add up to 62% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Strasbourg 0-3 Lens | 15.2% |
| Strasbourg 0-4 Lens | 15.2% |
| Strasbourg 0-5 Lens | 12.2% |
| Strasbourg 0-2 Lens | 11.4% |
| Strasbourg 0-6 Lens | 8.1% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 4.25 goals in total (0.25 for Strasbourg, 4.00 for Lens): over 2.5 goals has a 80% probability and both teams to score 22%. Everything points to an open game. Strasbourg keep a clean sheet in 2% of scenarios, Lens in 78%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Strasbourg expected goals | 0.25 |
| Lens expected goals | 4.00 |
| Both teams to score | 22% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 93% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 61% |
| Strasbourg clean sheet | 2% |
| Lens clean sheet | 78% |
Recent form
Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.
Strasbourg
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Marseille · Ligue 1 | 0-4 | L |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Newcastle · Club Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
| Aug 8, 2026 | SC Freiburg · Club Friendlies | 0-2 | L |
| Aug 4, 2026 | SV Elversberg · Club Friendlies | 2-5 | L |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Brighton · Club Friendlies | 3-4 | L |
Lens
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Auxerre · Ligue 1 | 5-2 | W |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Paris Saint Germain · Trophée des Champions | 1-0 | W |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Sunderland · Club Friendlies | 0-2 | L |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Charleroi · Club Friendlies | 2-2 | D |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Boulogne · Club Friendlies | 4-1 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Strasbourg | 18 | 0 | 1 |
| Lens | 2 | 3 | 1 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2026 | Strasbourg 1-1 Lens | Ligue 1 |
| Nov 22, 2025 | Lens 1-0 Strasbourg | Ligue 1 |
Out and doubtful
Strasbourg
- S. El Mourabet (out)
- J. Panichelli (out)
- B. Chilwell (out)
- I. Doukoure (out)
- M. Godo (out)
Lens
- S. Abdulhamid (out)
- K. Antonio (out)
- S. Baidoo (out)
- J. Chavez (out)
- O. Edouard (out)
Other matches in this competition
- Lille 2-2 Paris Saint GermainAug 28, 2026
- Lorient 1-2 Estac TroyesAug 29, 2026
- Lyon 1-1 Le HavreAug 29, 2026
- Auxerre 1-3 AngersAug 29, 2026
- Stade Brestois 29 2-2 ToulouseAug 29, 2026
- Paris FC 3-0 NiceAug 30, 2026
- Rennes 3-2 Le MansAug 30, 2026
- Monaco 2-0 MarseilleAug 30, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Strasbourg vs Lens prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Strasbourg a 1% chance of winning, the draw 4% and Lens 95%. Lens are therefore favourites. Final score: 2-1.
What is the most likely correct score for Strasbourg vs Lens?
0-3 (15.2%), followed by 0-4 (15.2%), 0-5 (12.2%), 0-2 (11.4%) and 0-6 (8.1%).
Will both teams score in Strasbourg vs Lens?
The probability that both Strasbourg and Lens score is 22%. Strasbourg have a 2% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Lens 78%.
How many goals should we expect in Strasbourg vs Lens?
The model expects 4.25 goals (0.25 for Strasbourg, 4.00 for Lens). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 93%, over 2.5 goals 80%, over 3.5 goals 61%.
When and where is Strasbourg vs Lens played?
Saturday, August 29, 2026 at 16:15 (UK time), Ligue 1, matchday 2. Venue: Stade de la Meinau, Strasbourg.
What form are Strasbourg and Lens in?
Strasbourg: 0 wins, 1 draw and 4 defeats in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 16 conceded). Lens: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (12 scored, 7 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Strasbourg and Lens?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Strasbourg, 1 for Lens and 1 draw. The most recent ended Strasbourg 1-1 Lens (Feb 27, 2026).
What was the Strasbourg vs Lens result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Strasbourg 2-1 Lens. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Lens (95%), while victory for Strasbourg was rated at only 1%. The model considered this score unlikely (0.2%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (22%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (80%): correct.
How is the Strasbourg vs Lens prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (0.25 for Strasbourg, 4.00 for Lens) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.