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Ligue 1Ligue 1· Kick-off : Saturday, August 29, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)

Stade Brestois 29 vs Toulouse: 2-2 result and AI prediction review

Stade Brestois 29Stade Brestois 292 – 2ToulouseToulouse

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome missedExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 3-2

Final score: Stade Brestois 29 2-2 Toulouse. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Stade Brestois 29 (62%), while a draw was rated at only 15%. The final score ranked 3rd among the most likely scorelines (5.1%), behind 3-2. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (86%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (92%): correct.

Match analysis

Stade Brestois 29 and Toulouse met on Saturday, August 29, 2026, a Ligue 1, matchday 2 fixture. Venue: Stade Francis-Le-Blé, Brest. Before kick-off, our model gave Stade Brestois 29 a 62% chance of winning, the draw 15% and Toulouse 23%. On the correct score, 3-2 comes out on top (5.8%), followed by 3-1 (5.3%) and 2-2 (5.1%).

Stade Brestois 29 have won just one of their last 5 matches (3 draws, 1 defeat), scoring 9 and conceding 10. Toulouse have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 4 and conceding 6. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Stade Brestois 29 score 1.80 and concede 2.00 goals per game; Toulouse score 0.80 and concede 1.20. In the table, Stade Brestois 29 sit 6th with 1 points from 1 games, Toulouse 15th with 0 points from 1. 9 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Stade Brestois 29 have averaged 2.72 xG (expected goals) per match, against 2.77 for Toulouse.

In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Stade Brestois 29, 2 for Toulouse and 0 draws. The most recent ended Stade Brestois 29 0-2 Toulouse (Jan 25, 2026). Stade Brestois 29 out or doubtful: B. Chardonnet and H. Magnetti. Toulouse: A. Donnum and A. Francis. In double chance terms, "Stade Brestois 29 or draw" stands at 77%, "Toulouse or draw" at 38% and "no draw" at 85%.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

62%
Stade Brestois 29 (Win)
15%
Draw
23%
Toulouse (Win)

Double chance

77%
Stade Brestois 29 or draw
38%
Toulouse or draw
85%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Stade Brestois 29 – Toulouse. 3-2 is the single most likely scoreline (5.8%); the 5 scores below add up to 26% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Stade Brestois 29 3-2 Toulouse5.8%
Stade Brestois 29 3-1 Toulouse5.3%
Stade Brestois 29 2-2 Toulouse5.1%
Stade Brestois 29 4-2 Toulouse5.0%
Stade Brestois 29 2-1 Toulouse4.7%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

With 3.44 expected goals for Stade Brestois 29 and 2.19 for Toulouse, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 92% and "both teams to score" at 86%. Goals look likely in this one. Stade Brestois 29 keep a clean sheet in 11% of scenarios, Toulouse in 3%.

Probability
Stade Brestois 29 expected goals3.44
Toulouse expected goals2.19
Both teams to score86%
Over 1.5 goals98%
Over 2.5 goals92%
Over 3.5 goals81%
Stade Brestois 29 clean sheet11%
Toulouse clean sheet3%

Recent form

Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.

Stade Brestois 29

DateOpponentScore
Aug 22, 2026Le Mans · Ligue 12-2D
Aug 16, 2026Nottingham Forest · Club Friendlies0-2L
Aug 8, 2026Venezia · Club Friendlies2-2D
Aug 5, 2026Stade Briochin · Club Friendlies2-1W
Aug 1, 2026Guingamp · Club Friendlies3-3D

Toulouse

DateOpponentScore
Aug 22, 2026Lyon · Ligue 10-2L
Aug 15, 2026Hamburger SV · Club Friendlies1-2L
Jul 31, 2026Real Sociedad · Club Friendlies2-1W
Jul 25, 2026Rodez · Club Friendlies1-1D
May 17, 2026Nantes · Ligue 10-0D

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Stade Brestois 29611
Toulouse1501

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
Jan 25, 2026Stade Brestois 29 0-2 ToulouseLigue 1
Aug 24, 2025Toulouse 2-0 Stade Brestois 29Ligue 1

Out and doubtful

Stade Brestois 29

  • B. Chardonnet (out)
  • H. Magnetti (out)

Toulouse

  • A. Donnum (out)
  • A. Francis (out)

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Stade Brestois 29 vs Toulouse prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Stade Brestois 29 a 62% chance of winning, the draw 15% and Toulouse 23%. Stade Brestois 29 are therefore favourites. Final score: 2-2.

What is the most likely correct score for Stade Brestois 29 vs Toulouse?

3-2 (5.8%), followed by 3-1 (5.3%), 2-2 (5.1%), 4-2 (5.0%) and 2-1 (4.7%).

Will both teams score in Stade Brestois 29 vs Toulouse?

The probability that both Stade Brestois 29 and Toulouse score is 86%. Stade Brestois 29 have a 11% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Toulouse 3%.

How many goals should we expect in Stade Brestois 29 vs Toulouse?

The model expects 5.63 goals (3.44 for Stade Brestois 29, 2.19 for Toulouse). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 98%, over 2.5 goals 92%, over 3.5 goals 81%.

When and where is Stade Brestois 29 vs Toulouse played?

Saturday, August 29, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), Ligue 1, matchday 2. Venue: Stade Francis-Le-Blé, Brest.

What form are Stade Brestois 29 and Toulouse in?

Stade Brestois 29: 1 win, 3 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 10 conceded). Toulouse: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 6 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Stade Brestois 29 and Toulouse?

In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Stade Brestois 29, 2 for Toulouse and 0 draws. The most recent ended Stade Brestois 29 0-2 Toulouse (Jan 25, 2026).

What was the Stade Brestois 29 vs Toulouse result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Stade Brestois 29 2-2 Toulouse. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Stade Brestois 29 (62%), while a draw was rated at only 15%. The final score ranked 3rd among the most likely scorelines (5.1%), behind 3-2. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (86%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (92%): correct.

How is the Stade Brestois 29 vs Toulouse prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (3.44 for Stade Brestois 29, 2.19 for Toulouse) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

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Key terms explained