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Ligue 1Ligue 1· Kick-off : Friday, September 4, 2026, 20:05 (UK time)

Paris Saint Germain vs Monaco: 1-2 result and AI prediction review

Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain1 – 2MonacoMonaco

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome missedExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 2-0

Final score: Paris Saint Germain 1-2 Monaco. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Paris Saint Germain (70%), while victory for Monaco was rated at only 12%. The model considered this score unlikely (3.5%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (50%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (59%): correct.

Match analysis

Paris Saint Germain vs Monaco was played on Friday, September 4, 2026 (Ligue 1, matchday 3). Venue: Parc des Princes, Paris. Before kick-off, our model gave Paris Saint Germain a 70% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Monaco 12%. The most likely correct score is 2-0 (11.9%), ahead of 1-0 (10.5%) and 2-1 (9.6%).

Paris Saint Germain have won just one of their last 5 matches (3 draws, 1 defeat), scoring 7 and conceding 7. Over their last 5 matches, Monaco have 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 10 and conceding 5. Recent momentum is clearly with Monaco. On average Paris Saint Germain score 1.40 and concede 1.40 goals per game; Monaco score 2.00 and concede 1.00. In the table, Paris Saint Germain sit 12th with 2 points from 2 games, Monaco 2nd with 6 points from 2. 10 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Paris Saint Germain have averaged 1.80 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.55 for Monaco.

In the last 4 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Paris Saint Germain, 2 for Monaco and 1 draw. The most recent ended Paris Saint Germain 1-3 Monaco (Mar 6, 2026). Paris Saint Germain out or doubtful: N. Mendes. Monaco: F. Balogun, A. Fati, T. Minamino and M. Salisu. In double chance terms, "Paris Saint Germain or draw" stands at 88%, "Monaco or draw" at 30% and "no draw" at 82%.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

70%
Paris Saint Germain (Win)
18%
Draw
12%
Monaco (Win)

Double chance

88%
Paris Saint Germain or draw
30%
Monaco or draw
82%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Paris Saint Germain – Monaco. 2-0 is the single most likely scoreline (11.9%); the 5 scores below add up to 49% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Paris Saint Germain 2-0 Monaco11.9%
Paris Saint Germain 1-0 Monaco10.5%
Paris Saint Germain 2-1 Monaco9.6%
Paris Saint Germain 3-0 Monaco8.9%
Paris Saint Germain 1-1 Monaco8.5%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

The model expects 3.06 goals in total (2.25 for Paris Saint Germain, 0.81 for Monaco): over 2.5 goals has a 59% probability and both teams to score 50%. Everything points to an open game. Paris Saint Germain keep a clean sheet in 45% of scenarios, Monaco in 11%.

Probability
Paris Saint Germain expected goals2.25
Monaco expected goals0.81
Both teams to score50%
Over 1.5 goals81%
Over 2.5 goals59%
Over 3.5 goals37%
Paris Saint Germain clean sheet45%
Monaco clean sheet11%

Recent form

Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.

Paris Saint Germain

DateOpponentScore
Aug 28, 2026Lille · Ligue 12-2D
Aug 23, 2026Rennes · Ligue 12-2D
Aug 16, 2026Lens · Trophée des Champions0-1L
Aug 12, 2026Aston Villa · UEFA Super Cup2-1W
Aug 8, 2026Manchester United · Club Friendlies1-1D

Monaco

DateOpponentScore
Aug 30, 2026Marseille · Ligue 12-0W
Aug 27, 2026Gornik Zabrze · UEFA Conference League4-1W
Aug 23, 2026Le Havre · Ligue 11-0W
Aug 20, 2026Gornik Zabrze · UEFA Conference League3-2W
Aug 14, 2026Coventry · Club Friendlies0-2L

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Paris Saint Germain1222
Monaco262

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
Mar 6, 2026Paris Saint Germain 1-3 MonacoLigue 1
Feb 25, 2026Paris Saint Germain 2-2 MonacoUEFA Champions League
Feb 17, 2026Monaco 2-3 Paris Saint GermainUEFA Champions League
Nov 29, 2025Monaco 1-0 Paris Saint GermainLigue 1

Out and doubtful

Paris Saint Germain

  • N. Mendes (out)

Monaco

  • F. Balogun (out)
  • A. Fati (out)
  • T. Minamino (out)
  • M. Salisu (out)

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Paris Saint Germain vs Monaco prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Paris Saint Germain a 70% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Monaco 12%. Paris Saint Germain are therefore favourites. Final score: 1-2.

What is the most likely correct score for Paris Saint Germain vs Monaco?

2-0 (11.9%), followed by 1-0 (10.5%), 2-1 (9.6%), 3-0 (8.9%) and 1-1 (8.5%).

Will both teams score in Paris Saint Germain vs Monaco?

The probability that both Paris Saint Germain and Monaco score is 50%. Paris Saint Germain have a 45% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Monaco 11%.

How many goals should we expect in Paris Saint Germain vs Monaco?

The model expects 3.06 goals (2.25 for Paris Saint Germain, 0.81 for Monaco). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 81%, over 2.5 goals 59%, over 3.5 goals 37%.

When and where is Paris Saint Germain vs Monaco played?

Friday, September 4, 2026 at 20:05 (UK time), Ligue 1, matchday 3. Venue: Parc des Princes, Paris.

What form are Paris Saint Germain and Monaco in?

Paris Saint Germain: 1 win, 3 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 7 conceded). Monaco: 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 5 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Paris Saint Germain and Monaco?

In the last 4 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Paris Saint Germain, 2 for Monaco and 1 draw. The most recent ended Paris Saint Germain 1-3 Monaco (Mar 6, 2026).

What was the Paris Saint Germain vs Monaco result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Paris Saint Germain 1-2 Monaco. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Paris Saint Germain (70%), while victory for Monaco was rated at only 12%. The model considered this score unlikely (3.5%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (50%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (59%): correct.

How is the Paris Saint Germain vs Monaco prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.25 for Paris Saint Germain, 0.81 for Monaco) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained