Ligue 1· Kick-off : Saturday, September 5, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)
Le Havre vs Stade Brestois 29: 1-2 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Le Havre 1-2 Stade Brestois 29. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Stade Brestois 29 was the model's favourite outcome (84%). The final score ranked 5th among the most likely scorelines (7.5%), behind 0-2. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (44%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (70%): correct.
Match analysis
Le Havre vs Stade Brestois 29 was played on Saturday, September 5, 2026 (Ligue 1, matchday 3). Venue: Stade Océane, Le Havre. Before kick-off, our model gave Le Havre a 5% chance of winning, the draw 11% and Stade Brestois 29 84%. The most likely correct score is 0-2 (12.0%), ahead of 0-3 (11.9%) and 0-4 (8.9%).
Le Havre have won just one of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 3 defeats), scoring 4 and conceding 6. Stade Brestois 29 have won just one of their last 5 matches (3 draws, 1 defeat), scoring 8 and conceding 9. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Le Havre score 0.80 and concede 1.20 goals per game; Stade Brestois 29 score 1.60 and concede 1.80. In the table, Le Havre sit 15th with 1 points from 2 games, Stade Brestois 29 11th with 2 points from 2. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Le Havre have averaged 0.65 xG (expected goals) per match, against 2.88 for Stade Brestois 29.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Le Havre, 1 for Stade Brestois 29 and 0 draws. The most recent ended Stade Brestois 29 2-0 Le Havre (Mar 8, 2026). Le Havre out or doubtful: P. Argney, F. Mambimbi, A. Toure and S. Zagadou. Stade Brestois 29: R. Cagnon, B. Chardonnet, M. Diambou and J. Bourgault. In double chance terms, "Le Havre or draw" stands at 16%, "Stade Brestois 29 or draw" at 95% and "no draw" at 89%.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Le Havre – Stade Brestois 29. 0-2 is the single most likely scoreline (12.0%); the 5 scores below add up to 48% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Le Havre 0-2 Stade Brestois 29 | 12.0% |
| Le Havre 0-3 Stade Brestois 29 | 11.9% |
| Le Havre 0-4 Stade Brestois 29 | 8.9% |
| Le Havre 0-1 Stade Brestois 29 | 8.0% |
| Le Havre 1-2 Stade Brestois 29 | 7.5% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 3.62 goals in total (0.63 for Le Havre, 2.99 for Stade Brestois 29): over 2.5 goals has a 70% probability and both teams to score 44%. Everything points to an open game. Le Havre keep a clean sheet in 5% of scenarios, Stade Brestois 29 in 53%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Le Havre expected goals | 0.63 |
| Stade Brestois 29 expected goals | 2.99 |
| Both teams to score | 44% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 88% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 49% |
| Le Havre clean sheet | 5% |
| Stade Brestois 29 clean sheet | 53% |
Recent form
Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.
Le Havre
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 29, 2026 | Lyon · Ligue 1 | 1-1 | D |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Monaco · Ligue 1 | 0-1 | L |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Le Mans · Club Friendlies | 1-0 | W |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Oviedo · Club Friendlies | 2-3 | L |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Ipswich · Club Friendlies | 0-1 | L |
Stade Brestois 29
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 29, 2026 | Toulouse · Ligue 1 | 2-2 | D |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Le Mans · Ligue 1 | 2-2 | D |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Nottingham Forest · Club Friendlies | 0-2 | L |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Venezia · Club Friendlies | 2-2 | D |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Stade Briochin · Club Friendlies | 2-1 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Le Havre | 15 | 1 | 2 |
| Stade Brestois 29 | 11 | 2 | 2 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2026 | Stade Brestois 29 2-0 Le Havre | Ligue 1 |
| Oct 29, 2025 | Le Havre 1-0 Stade Brestois 29 | Ligue 1 |
Out and doubtful
Le Havre
- P. Argney (out)
- F. Mambimbi (out)
- A. Toure (out)
- S. Zagadou (out)
Stade Brestois 29
- R. Cagnon (out)
- B. Chardonnet (out)
- M. Diambou (out)
- J. Bourgault (out)
Other matches in this competition
- Toulouse 0-1 LilleSep 3, 2026
- Lyon 3-1 AuxerreSep 4, 2026
- Paris Saint Germain 1-2 MonacoSep 4, 2026
- Lens 0-1 LorientSep 5, 2026
- Nice 1-1 Le MansSep 5, 2026
- Estac Troyes 2-6 StrasbourgSep 6, 2026
- Angers 1-2 RennesSep 6, 2026
- Marseille 2-3 Paris FCSep 6, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Le Havre vs Stade Brestois 29 prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Le Havre a 5% chance of winning, the draw 11% and Stade Brestois 29 84%. Stade Brestois 29 are therefore favourites. Final score: 1-2.
What is the most likely correct score for Le Havre vs Stade Brestois 29?
0-2 (12.0%), followed by 0-3 (11.9%), 0-4 (8.9%), 0-1 (8.0%) and 1-2 (7.5%).
Will both teams score in Le Havre vs Stade Brestois 29?
The probability that both Le Havre and Stade Brestois 29 score is 44%. Le Havre have a 5% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Stade Brestois 29 53%.
How many goals should we expect in Le Havre vs Stade Brestois 29?
The model expects 3.62 goals (0.63 for Le Havre, 2.99 for Stade Brestois 29). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 88%, over 2.5 goals 70%, over 3.5 goals 49%.
When and where is Le Havre vs Stade Brestois 29 played?
Saturday, September 5, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), Ligue 1, matchday 3. Venue: Stade Océane, Le Havre.
What form are Le Havre and Stade Brestois 29 in?
Le Havre: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 6 conceded). Stade Brestois 29: 1 win, 3 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 9 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Stade Brestois 29?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Le Havre, 1 for Stade Brestois 29 and 0 draws. The most recent ended Stade Brestois 29 2-0 Le Havre (Mar 8, 2026).
What was the Le Havre vs Stade Brestois 29 result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Le Havre 1-2 Stade Brestois 29. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Stade Brestois 29 was the model's favourite outcome (84%). The final score ranked 5th among the most likely scorelines (7.5%), behind 0-2. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (44%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (70%): correct.
How is the Le Havre vs Stade Brestois 29 prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (0.63 for Le Havre, 2.99 for Stade Brestois 29) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Le Havre predictions
- All Stade Brestois 29 predictions
- Ligue 1 predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology