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Ligue 1Ligue 1· Kick-off : Saturday, August 22, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)

Le Mans vs Stade Brestois 29: 2-2 result and AI prediction review

Le MansLe Mans2 – 2Stade Brestois 29Stade Brestois 29

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome missedExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 1-0

Final score: Le Mans 2-2 Stade Brestois 29. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Le Mans (53%), while a draw was rated at only 24%. The final score ranked 10th among the most likely scorelines (4.8%), behind 1-0. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (51%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (50%): missed.

Match analysis

Le Mans and Stade Brestois 29 met on Saturday, August 22, 2026, a Ligue 1, matchday 1 fixture. Venue: Stade Marie-Marvingt, Le Mans. Before kick-off, our model gave Le Mans a 53% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Stade Brestois 29 23%. On the correct score, 1-0 comes out on top (11.6%), followed by 1-1 (11.6%) and 2-0 (9.7%).

Over their last 5 matches, Le Mans have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 5 and conceding 4. Stade Brestois 29 have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 7 and conceding 10. Le Mans therefore arrive in far better shape than Stade Brestois 29. On average Le Mans score 1.00 and concede 0.80 goals per game; Stade Brestois 29 score 1.40 and concede 2.00.

Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Le Mans and Stade Brestois 29: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. Le Mans out or doubtful: H. Voyer. Stade Brestois 29: B. Chardonnet and H. Magnetti. In double chance terms, "Le Mans or draw" stands at 77%, "Stade Brestois 29 or draw" at 47% and "no draw" at 76%.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

53%
Le Mans (Win)
24%
Draw
23%
Stade Brestois 29 (Win)

Double chance

77%
Le Mans or draw
47%
Stade Brestois 29 or draw
76%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Le Mans – Stade Brestois 29. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (11.6%); the 5 scores below add up to 50% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Le Mans 1-0 Stade Brestois 2911.6%
Le Mans 1-1 Stade Brestois 2911.6%
Le Mans 2-0 Stade Brestois 299.7%
Le Mans 2-1 Stade Brestois 299.7%
Le Mans 0-0 Stade Brestois 296.9%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

With 1.67 expected goals for Le Mans and 1.00 for Stade Brestois 29, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 50% and "both teams to score" at 51%. Le Mans keep a clean sheet in 37% of scenarios, Stade Brestois 29 in 19%.

Probability
Le Mans expected goals1.67
Stade Brestois 29 expected goals1.00
Both teams to score51%
Over 1.5 goals75%
Over 2.5 goals50%
Over 3.5 goals28%
Le Mans clean sheet37%
Stade Brestois 29 clean sheet19%

Recent form

Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.

Le Mans

DateOpponentScore
Aug 15, 2026Le Havre · Club Friendlies0-1L
Aug 8, 2026Saumur · Club Friendlies0-0D
Aug 8, 2026UNFP · Club Friendlies1-1D
Aug 1, 2026Angers · Club Friendlies3-2W
Jul 25, 2026Nantes · Club Friendlies1-0W

Stade Brestois 29

DateOpponentScore
Aug 16, 2026Nottingham Forest · Club Friendlies0-2L
Aug 8, 2026Venezia · Club Friendlies2-2D
Aug 5, 2026Stade Briochin · Club Friendlies2-1W
Aug 1, 2026Guingamp · Club Friendlies3-3D
Jul 22, 2026Al Wakrah · Club Friendlies0-2L

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Le Mans1700
Stade Brestois 291100

Head-to-head

Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Le Mans and Stade Brestois 29: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.

Out and doubtful

Le Mans

  • H. Voyer (out)

Stade Brestois 29

  • B. Chardonnet (out)
  • H. Magnetti (out)

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Le Mans vs Stade Brestois 29 prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Le Mans a 53% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Stade Brestois 29 23%. Le Mans are therefore favourites. Final score: 2-2.

What is the most likely correct score for Le Mans vs Stade Brestois 29?

1-0 (11.6%), followed by 1-1 (11.6%), 2-0 (9.7%), 2-1 (9.7%) and 0-0 (6.9%).

Will both teams score in Le Mans vs Stade Brestois 29?

The probability that both Le Mans and Stade Brestois 29 score is 51%. Le Mans have a 37% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Stade Brestois 29 19%.

How many goals should we expect in Le Mans vs Stade Brestois 29?

The model expects 2.67 goals (1.67 for Le Mans, 1.00 for Stade Brestois 29). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 75%, over 2.5 goals 50%, over 3.5 goals 28%.

When and where is Le Mans vs Stade Brestois 29 played?

Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), Ligue 1, matchday 1. Venue: Stade Marie-Marvingt, Le Mans.

What form are Le Mans and Stade Brestois 29 in?

Le Mans: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 4 conceded). Stade Brestois 29: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 10 conceded).

What was the Le Mans vs Stade Brestois 29 result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Le Mans 2-2 Stade Brestois 29. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Le Mans (53%), while a draw was rated at only 24%. The final score ranked 10th among the most likely scorelines (4.8%), behind 1-0. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (51%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (50%): missed.

How is the Le Mans vs Stade Brestois 29 prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.67 for Le Mans, 1.00 for Stade Brestois 29) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained