Ligue 1· Kick-off : Sunday, August 23, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)
Rennes vs Paris Saint Germain: 2-2 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Rennes 2-2 Paris Saint Germain. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Rennes (39%), while a draw was rated at only 24%. The final score ranked 5th among the most likely scorelines (6.6%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (63%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (61%): correct.
Match analysis
Rennes vs Paris Saint Germain was played on Sunday, August 23, 2026 (Ligue 1, matchday 1). Venue: Roazhon Park, Rennes. Before kick-off, our model gave Rennes a 39% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Paris Saint Germain 37%. The most likely correct score is 1-1 (10.6%), ahead of 2-1 (8.5%) and 1-2 (8.2%).
Rennes have won just one of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 3 defeats), scoring 9 and conceding 12. Paris Saint Germain have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 4 and conceding 7. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Rennes score 1.80 and concede 2.40 goals per game; Paris Saint Germain score 0.80 and concede 1.40.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Rennes, 1 for Paris Saint Germain and 0 draws. The most recent ended Rennes 3-1 Paris Saint Germain (Feb 13, 2026). Rennes out or doubtful: M. Camara. Paris Saint Germain: B. Barcola, I. Mbaye and N. Mendes. In double chance terms, "Rennes or draw" stands at 63%, "Paris Saint Germain or draw" at 61% and "no draw" at 76%.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Rennes – Paris Saint Germain. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (10.6%); the 5 scores below add up to 41% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Rennes 1-1 Paris Saint Germain | 10.6% |
| Rennes 2-1 Paris Saint Germain | 8.5% |
| Rennes 1-2 Paris Saint Germain | 8.2% |
| Rennes 1-0 Paris Saint Germain | 6.8% |
| Rennes 2-2 Paris Saint Germain | 6.6% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 3.16 goals in total (1.61 for Rennes, 1.55 for Paris Saint Germain): over 2.5 goals has a 61% probability and both teams to score 63%. Everything points to an open game. Rennes keep a clean sheet in 21% of scenarios, Paris Saint Germain in 20%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Rennes expected goals | 1.61 |
| Paris Saint Germain expected goals | 1.55 |
| Both teams to score | 63% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% |
| Rennes clean sheet | 21% |
| Paris Saint Germain clean sheet | 20% |
Recent form
Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.
Rennes
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Sunderland · Club Friendlies | 1-2 | L |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Brentford · Club Friendlies | 2-4 | L |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Brentford U21 · Club Friendlies | 1-2 | L |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Galatasaray · Club Friendlies | 3-3 | D |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Club Brugge KV · Club Friendlies | 2-1 | W |
Paris Saint Germain
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Lens · Trophée des Champions | 0-1 | L |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Aston Villa · UEFA Super Cup | 2-1 | W |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Manchester United · Club Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Mallorca · Club Friendlies | 0-3 | L |
| May 30, 2026 | Arsenal · UEFA Champions League | 1-1 | D |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rennes | 12 | 0 | 0 |
| Paris Saint Germain | 10 | 0 | 0 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 13, 2026 | Rennes 3-1 Paris Saint Germain | Ligue 1 |
| Dec 6, 2025 | Paris Saint Germain 5-0 Rennes | Ligue 1 |
Out and doubtful
Rennes
- M. Camara (out)
Paris Saint Germain
- B. Barcola (out)
- I. Mbaye (out)
- N. Mendes (out)
Other matches in this competition
- Marseille 4-0 StrasbourgAug 21, 2026
- Lens 5-2 AuxerreAug 22, 2026
- Nice 0-0 LorientAug 22, 2026
- Estac Troyes 0-0 Paris FCAug 22, 2026
- Le Mans 2-2 Stade Brestois 29Aug 22, 2026
- Toulouse 0-2 LyonAug 22, 2026
- Angers 0-2 LilleAug 23, 2026
- Le Havre 0-1 MonacoAug 23, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Rennes vs Paris Saint Germain prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Rennes a 39% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Paris Saint Germain 37%. Rennes are therefore slight favourites. Final score: 2-2.
What is the most likely correct score for Rennes vs Paris Saint Germain?
1-1 (10.6%), followed by 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.2%), 1-0 (6.8%) and 2-2 (6.6%).
Will both teams score in Rennes vs Paris Saint Germain?
The probability that both Rennes and Paris Saint Germain score is 63%. Rennes have a 21% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Paris Saint Germain 20%.
How many goals should we expect in Rennes vs Paris Saint Germain?
The model expects 3.16 goals (1.61 for Rennes, 1.55 for Paris Saint Germain). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 82%, over 2.5 goals 61%, over 3.5 goals 39%.
When and where is Rennes vs Paris Saint Germain played?
Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), Ligue 1, matchday 1. Venue: Roazhon Park, Rennes.
What form are Rennes and Paris Saint Germain in?
Rennes: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 12 conceded). Paris Saint Germain: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 7 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Rennes and Paris Saint Germain?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Rennes, 1 for Paris Saint Germain and 0 draws. The most recent ended Rennes 3-1 Paris Saint Germain (Feb 13, 2026).
What was the Rennes vs Paris Saint Germain result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Rennes 2-2 Paris Saint Germain. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Rennes (39%), while a draw was rated at only 24%. The final score ranked 5th among the most likely scorelines (6.6%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (63%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (61%): correct.
How is the Rennes vs Paris Saint Germain prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.61 for Rennes, 1.55 for Paris Saint Germain) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Rennes predictions
- All Paris Saint Germain predictions
- Ligue 1 predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology