Ligue 1· Kick-off : Saturday, August 22, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)
Toulouse vs Lyon: 0-2 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Toulouse 0-2 Lyon. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Toulouse (53%), while victory for Lyon was rated at only 23%. The model considered this score unlikely (3.5%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (51%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (50%): correct.
Match analysis
Toulouse and Lyon met on Saturday, August 22, 2026, a Ligue 1, matchday 1 fixture. Venue: Stadium de Toulouse, Toulouse. Before kick-off, our model gave Toulouse a 53% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Lyon 23%. On the correct score, 1-0 comes out on top (11.6%), followed by 1-1 (11.6%) and 2-0 (9.7%).
Over their last 5 matches, Toulouse have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 6 and conceding 5. Over their last 5 matches, Lyon have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 7 and conceding 7. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Toulouse score 1.20 and concede 1.00 goals per game; Lyon score 1.40 and concede 1.40.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Toulouse, 0 for Lyon and 0 draws. The most recent ended Toulouse 2-1 Lyon (May 10, 2026). Toulouse out or doubtful: D. Methalie, A. Vossah and R. Messali. Lyon: K. Merah, P. Sulc and N. Tagliafico. In double chance terms, "Toulouse or draw" stands at 77%, "Lyon or draw" at 47% and "no draw" at 76%.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Toulouse – Lyon. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (11.6%); the 5 scores below add up to 50% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Toulouse 1-0 Lyon | 11.6% |
| Toulouse 1-1 Lyon | 11.6% |
| Toulouse 2-0 Lyon | 9.7% |
| Toulouse 2-1 Lyon | 9.7% |
| Toulouse 0-0 Lyon | 6.9% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.67 expected goals for Toulouse and 1.00 for Lyon, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 50% and "both teams to score" at 51%. Toulouse keep a clean sheet in 37% of scenarios, Lyon in 19%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Toulouse expected goals | 1.67 |
| Lyon expected goals | 1.00 |
| Both teams to score | 51% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% |
| Toulouse clean sheet | 37% |
| Lyon clean sheet | 19% |
Recent form
Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.
Toulouse
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Hamburger SV · Club Friendlies | 1-2 | L |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Real Sociedad · Club Friendlies | 2-1 | W |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Rodez · Club Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
| May 17, 2026 | Nantes · Ligue 1 | 0-0 | D |
| May 10, 2026 | Lyon · Ligue 1 | 2-1 | W |
Lyon
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 18, 2026 | Fenerbahçe · UEFA Champions League | 1-1 | D |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Sparta Praha · UEFA Champions League | 3-0 | W |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Sparta Praha · UEFA Champions League | 1-2 | L |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Real Betis · Club Friendlies | 0-4 | L |
| Jul 24, 2026 | VfL Wolfsburg · Club Friendlies | 2-0 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toulouse | 8 | 0 | 0 |
| Lyon | 5 | 0 | 0 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Toulouse 2-1 Lyon | Ligue 1 |
| Oct 5, 2025 | Lyon 1-2 Toulouse | Ligue 1 |
Out and doubtful
Toulouse
- D. Methalie (out)
- A. Vossah (out)
- R. Messali (out)
Lyon
- K. Merah (out)
- P. Sulc (out)
- N. Tagliafico (out)
Other matches in this competition
- Marseille 4-0 StrasbourgAug 21, 2026
- Lens 5-2 AuxerreAug 22, 2026
- Nice 0-0 LorientAug 22, 2026
- Estac Troyes 0-0 Paris FCAug 22, 2026
- Le Mans 2-2 Stade Brestois 29Aug 22, 2026
- Angers 0-2 LilleAug 23, 2026
- Le Havre 0-1 MonacoAug 23, 2026
- Rennes 2-2 Paris Saint GermainAug 23, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Toulouse vs Lyon prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Toulouse a 53% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Lyon 23%. Toulouse are therefore favourites. Final score: 0-2.
What is the most likely correct score for Toulouse vs Lyon?
1-0 (11.6%), followed by 1-1 (11.6%), 2-0 (9.7%), 2-1 (9.7%) and 0-0 (6.9%).
Will both teams score in Toulouse vs Lyon?
The probability that both Toulouse and Lyon score is 51%. Toulouse have a 37% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Lyon 19%.
How many goals should we expect in Toulouse vs Lyon?
The model expects 2.67 goals (1.67 for Toulouse, 1.00 for Lyon). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 75%, over 2.5 goals 50%, over 3.5 goals 28%.
When and where is Toulouse vs Lyon played?
Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), Ligue 1, matchday 1. Venue: Stadium de Toulouse, Toulouse.
What form are Toulouse and Lyon in?
Toulouse: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 5 conceded). Lyon: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 7 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Lyon?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Toulouse, 0 for Lyon and 0 draws. The most recent ended Toulouse 2-1 Lyon (May 10, 2026).
What was the Toulouse vs Lyon result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Toulouse 0-2 Lyon. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Toulouse (53%), while victory for Lyon was rated at only 23%. The model considered this score unlikely (3.5%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (51%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (50%): correct.
How is the Toulouse vs Lyon prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.67 for Toulouse, 1.00 for Lyon) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.