Ligue 1· Kick-off : Saturday, August 22, 2026, 16:15 (UK time)
Lens vs Auxerre: 5-2 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Lens 5-2 Auxerre. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Lens at 53%. The model considered this score unlikely (0.4%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (52%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (50%): missed.
Match analysis
Lens and Auxerre met on Saturday, August 22, 2026, a Ligue 1, matchday 1 fixture. Venue: Stade Bollaert-Delelis, Lens. Before kick-off, our model gave Lens a 53% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Auxerre 23%. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (11.6%), followed by 1-0 (11.5%) and 2-1 (9.6%).
Over their last 5 matches, Lens have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 10 and conceding 6. Over their last 5 matches, Auxerre have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 9 and conceding 6. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Lens score 2.00 and concede 1.20 goals per game; Auxerre score 1.80 and concede 1.20.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Lens, 0 for Auxerre and 0 draws. The most recent ended Lens 1-0 Auxerre (Jan 17, 2026). Lens out or doubtful: K. Antonio, S. Baidoo, N. Celik, J. Chavez and J. Gradit. Auxerre: T. Bair, A. Diousse, S. Fofana, R. Labeau Lascary and B. Okoh. In double chance terms, "Lens or draw" stands at 77%, "Auxerre or draw" at 47% and "no draw" at 76%.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Lens – Auxerre. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (11.6%); the 5 scores below add up to 49% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Lens 1-1 Auxerre | 11.6% |
| Lens 1-0 Auxerre | 11.5% |
| Lens 2-1 Auxerre | 9.6% |
| Lens 2-0 Auxerre | 9.5% |
| Lens 0-1 Auxerre | 7.0% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.66 expected goals for Lens and 1.01 for Auxerre, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 50% and "both teams to score" at 52%. Lens keep a clean sheet in 36% of scenarios, Auxerre in 19%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Lens expected goals | 1.66 |
| Auxerre expected goals | 1.01 |
| Both teams to score | 52% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% |
| Lens clean sheet | 36% |
| Auxerre clean sheet | 19% |
Recent form
Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.
Lens
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Paris Saint Germain · Trophée des Champions | 1-0 | W |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Sunderland · Club Friendlies | 0-2 | L |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Charleroi · Club Friendlies | 2-2 | D |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Boulogne · Club Friendlies | 4-1 | W |
| May 22, 2026 | Nice · Coupe de France | 3-1 | W |
Auxerre
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Werder Bremen · Club Friendlies | 1-0 | W |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Estac Troyes · Club Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Sochaux · Club Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Orleans · Club Friendlies | 1-2 | L |
| Jul 18, 2026 | St Maur Lusitanos · Club Friendlies | 5-2 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lens | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Auxerre | 14 | 0 | 0 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2026 | Lens 1-0 Auxerre | Ligue 1 |
| Oct 4, 2025 | Auxerre 1-2 Lens | Ligue 1 |
Out and doubtful
Lens
- K. Antonio (out)
- S. Baidoo (out)
- N. Celik (out)
- J. Chavez (out)
- J. Gradit (out)
Auxerre
- T. Bair (out)
- A. Diousse (out)
- S. Fofana (out)
- R. Labeau Lascary (out)
- B. Okoh (out)
Other matches in this competition
- Marseille 4-0 StrasbourgAug 21, 2026
- Nice 0-0 LorientAug 22, 2026
- Estac Troyes 0-0 Paris FCAug 22, 2026
- Le Mans 2-2 Stade Brestois 29Aug 22, 2026
- Toulouse 0-2 LyonAug 22, 2026
- Angers 0-2 LilleAug 23, 2026
- Le Havre 0-1 MonacoAug 23, 2026
- Rennes 2-2 Paris Saint GermainAug 23, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Lens vs Auxerre prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Lens a 53% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Auxerre 23%. Lens are therefore favourites. Final score: 5-2.
What is the most likely correct score for Lens vs Auxerre?
1-1 (11.6%), followed by 1-0 (11.5%), 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (9.5%) and 0-1 (7.0%).
Will both teams score in Lens vs Auxerre?
The probability that both Lens and Auxerre score is 52%. Lens have a 36% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Auxerre 19%.
How many goals should we expect in Lens vs Auxerre?
The model expects 2.67 goals (1.66 for Lens, 1.01 for Auxerre). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 75%, over 2.5 goals 50%, over 3.5 goals 28%.
When and where is Lens vs Auxerre played?
Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 16:15 (UK time), Ligue 1, matchday 1. Venue: Stade Bollaert-Delelis, Lens.
What form are Lens and Auxerre in?
Lens: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 6 conceded). Auxerre: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 6 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Lens and Auxerre?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Lens, 0 for Auxerre and 0 draws. The most recent ended Lens 1-0 Auxerre (Jan 17, 2026).
What was the Lens vs Auxerre result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Lens 5-2 Auxerre. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Lens at 53%. The model considered this score unlikely (0.4%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (52%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (50%): missed.
How is the Lens vs Auxerre prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.66 for Lens, 1.01 for Auxerre) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.