Premier League· Kick-off : Sunday, September 20, 2026, 14:00 (UK time)
Bournemouth vs Liverpool: 0-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Bournemouth 0-1 Liverpool. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Liverpool was the model's favourite outcome (44%). The final score ranked 3rd among the most likely scorelines (7.7%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (62%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (60%): missed.
Match analysis
Bournemouth vs Liverpool was played on Sunday, September 20, 2026 (Premier League, matchday 5). Venue: Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth. Before kick-off, our model gave Bournemouth a 30% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Liverpool 44%. The most likely correct score is 1-1 (10.7%), ahead of 1-2 (9.2%) and 0-1 (7.7%).
Bournemouth are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (2 wins, 3 draws), scoring 11 and conceding 6. Liverpool are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (3 wins, 2 draws), scoring 9 and conceding 4. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Bournemouth score 2.20 and concede 1.20 goals per game; Liverpool score 1.80 and concede 0.80. In the table, Bournemouth sit 16th with 3 points from 4 games, Liverpool 10th with 6 points from 4. 6 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Bournemouth have averaged 1.77 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.35 for Liverpool.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Bournemouth, 1 for Liverpool and 0 draws. The most recent ended Bournemouth 3-2 Liverpool (Jan 24, 2026). Bournemouth out or doubtful: A. Adli, J. Araujo, E. J. Kroupi, V. Milosavljevic and M. Aarons. Liverpool: C. Bradley, F. Chiesa, H. Ekitike, G. Leoni and I. Mabaya. In double chance terms, "Bournemouth or draw" stands at 56%, "Liverpool or draw" at 70% and "no draw" at 75%.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Bournemouth – Liverpool. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (10.7%); the 5 scores below add up to 42% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Bournemouth 1-1 Liverpool | 10.7% |
| Bournemouth 1-2 Liverpool | 9.2% |
| Bournemouth 0-1 Liverpool | 7.7% |
| Bournemouth 2-1 Liverpool | 7.4% |
| Bournemouth 0-2 Liverpool | 6.6% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 3.10 goals in total (1.39 for Bournemouth, 1.71 for Liverpool): over 2.5 goals has a 60% probability and both teams to score 62%. Everything points to an open game. Bournemouth keep a clean sheet in 18% of scenarios, Liverpool in 25%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Bournemouth expected goals | 1.39 |
| Liverpool expected goals | 1.71 |
| Both teams to score | 62% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% |
| Bournemouth clean sheet | 18% |
| Liverpool clean sheet | 25% |
Recent form
Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.
Bournemouth
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 17, 2026 | Real Sociedad · UEFA Europa League | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Brentford · Premier League | 2-2 | D |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Lincoln · EFL Cup | 4-0 | W |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Newcastle · Premier League | 2-2 | D |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Everton · Premier League | 1-1 | D |
Liverpool
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 15, 2026 | Tottenham · EFL Cup | 3-1 | W |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Fulham · Premier League | 0-0 | D |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Atletico Madrid · UEFA Champions League | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Ipswich · Premier League | 2-0 | W |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Nottingham Forest · Premier League | 2-2 | D |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth | 16 | 3 | 4 |
| Liverpool | 10 | 6 | 4 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2026 | Bournemouth 3-2 Liverpool | Premier League |
| Aug 15, 2025 | Liverpool 4-2 Bournemouth | Premier League |
Out and doubtful
Bournemouth
- A. Adli (out)
- J. Araujo (out)
- E. J. Kroupi (out)
- V. Milosavljevic (out)
- M. Aarons (out)
Liverpool
- C. Bradley (out)
- F. Chiesa (out)
- H. Ekitike (out)
- G. Leoni (out)
- I. Mabaya (out)
Other matches in this competition
- Brentford 3-0 ChelseaSep 18, 2026
- Tottenham 2-3 Aston VillaSep 19, 2026
- Brighton 3-0 ArsenalSep 19, 2026
- Everton 1-0 IpswichSep 19, 2026
- Newcastle 2-1 Hull CitySep 19, 2026
- Nottingham Forest 0-1 CoventrySep 19, 2026
- Leeds 0-0 Crystal PalaceSep 20, 2026
- Manchester City 5-3 SunderlandSep 20, 2026
- Fulham 1-1 Manchester UnitedSep 20, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Bournemouth vs Liverpool prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Bournemouth a 30% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Liverpool 44%. Liverpool are therefore slight favourites. Final score: 0-1.
What is the most likely correct score for Bournemouth vs Liverpool?
1-1 (10.7%), followed by 1-2 (9.2%), 0-1 (7.7%), 2-1 (7.4%) and 0-2 (6.6%).
Will both teams score in Bournemouth vs Liverpool?
The probability that both Bournemouth and Liverpool score is 62%. Bournemouth have a 18% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Liverpool 25%.
How many goals should we expect in Bournemouth vs Liverpool?
The model expects 3.10 goals (1.39 for Bournemouth, 1.71 for Liverpool). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 82%, over 2.5 goals 60%, over 3.5 goals 38%.
When and where is Bournemouth vs Liverpool played?
Sunday, September 20, 2026 at 14:00 (UK time), Premier League, matchday 5. Venue: Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth.
What form are Bournemouth and Liverpool in?
Bournemouth: 2 wins, 3 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (11 scored, 6 conceded). Liverpool: 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 4 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Bournemouth and Liverpool?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Bournemouth, 1 for Liverpool and 0 draws. The most recent ended Bournemouth 3-2 Liverpool (Jan 24, 2026).
What was the Bournemouth vs Liverpool result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Bournemouth 0-1 Liverpool. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Liverpool was the model's favourite outcome (44%). The final score ranked 3rd among the most likely scorelines (7.7%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (62%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (60%): missed.
How is the Bournemouth vs Liverpool prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.39 for Bournemouth, 1.71 for Liverpool) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Bournemouth predictions
- All Liverpool predictions
- Premier League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology