Premier League· Kick-off : Saturday, September 19, 2026, 15:00 (UK time)
Newcastle vs Hull City: 2-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Newcastle 2-1 Hull City. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Hull City (48%), while victory for Newcastle was rated at only 21%. The final score ranked 8th among the most likely scorelines (4.0%), behind 0-1. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (33%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (27%): missed.
Match analysis
Newcastle and Hull City met on Saturday, September 19, 2026, a Premier League, matchday 5 fixture. Venue: St James' Park, Newcastle. Before kick-off, our model gave Newcastle a 21% chance of winning, the draw 31% and Hull City 48%. On the correct score, 0-1 comes out on top (19.0%), followed by 0-0 (16.4%) and 1-1 (12.3%).
Over their last 5 matches, Newcastle have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 9 and conceding 8. Hull City have won just one of their last 5 matches (3 draws, 1 defeat), scoring 4 and conceding 4. Newcastle therefore arrive in far better shape than Hull City. On average Newcastle score 1.80 and concede 1.60 goals per game; Hull City score 0.80 and concede 0.80. In the table, Newcastle sit 12th with 5 points from 4 games, Hull City 5th with 8 points from 4. 7 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Newcastle have averaged 0.71 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.07 for Hull City.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 3 wins for Newcastle, 0 for Hull City and 2 draws. Newcastle out or doubtful: D. Burn, A. Elanga, E. Jaouen, Joelinton and W. Osula. Hull City: I. Ansah, J. Butland, D. Gyabi, C. Hughes and E. Matazo. In double chance terms, "Newcastle or draw" stands at 52%, "Hull City or draw" at 79% and "no draw" at 69%.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Newcastle – Hull City. 0-1 is the single most likely scoreline (19.0%); the 5 scores below add up to 69% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Newcastle 0-1 Hull City | 19.0% |
| Newcastle 0-0 Hull City | 16.4% |
| Newcastle 1-1 Hull City | 12.3% |
| Newcastle 0-2 Hull City | 11.0% |
| Newcastle 1-0 Hull City | 10.6% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 0.65 expected goals for Newcastle and 1.16 for Hull City, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 27% and "both teams to score" at 33%. Few goals are expected here. Newcastle keep a clean sheet in 31% of scenarios, Hull City in 52%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Newcastle expected goals | 0.65 |
| Hull City expected goals | 1.16 |
| Both teams to score | 33% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 54% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 27% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 11% |
| Newcastle clean sheet | 31% |
| Hull City clean sheet | 52% |
Recent form
Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.
Newcastle
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 14, 2026 | Leeds · Premier League | 1-4 | L |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Millwall · EFL Cup | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Bournemouth · Premier League | 2-2 | D |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Tottenham · Premier League | 2-0 | W |
| Aug 26, 2026 | West Brom · EFL Cup | 3-2 | W |
Hull City
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 12, 2026 | Chelsea · Premier League | 2-2 | D |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Sunderland · EFL Cup | 0-1 | L |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Aston Villa · Premier League | 0-0 | D |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Coventry · Premier League | 1-0 | W |
| Aug 25, 2026 | Stoke City · EFL Cup | 1-1 | D |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle | 12 | 5 | 4 |
| Hull City | 5 | 8 | 4 |
Head-to-head
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 3 wins for Newcastle, 0 for Hull City and 2 draws.
Out and doubtful
Newcastle
- D. Burn (out)
- A. Elanga (out)
- E. Jaouen (out)
- Joelinton (out)
- W. Osula (out)
Hull City
- I. Ansah (out)
- J. Butland (out)
- D. Gyabi (out)
- C. Hughes (out)
- E. Matazo (out)
Other matches in this competition
- Brentford 3-0 ChelseaSep 18, 2026
- Tottenham 2-3 Aston VillaSep 19, 2026
- Brighton 3-0 ArsenalSep 19, 2026
- Everton 1-0 IpswichSep 19, 2026
- Nottingham Forest 0-1 CoventrySep 19, 2026
- Leeds 0-0 Crystal PalaceSep 20, 2026
- Manchester City 5-3 SunderlandSep 20, 2026
- Bournemouth 0-1 LiverpoolSep 20, 2026
- Fulham 1-1 Manchester UnitedSep 20, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Newcastle vs Hull City prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Newcastle a 21% chance of winning, the draw 31% and Hull City 48%. Hull City are therefore favourites. Final score: 2-1.
What is the most likely correct score for Newcastle vs Hull City?
0-1 (19.0%), followed by 0-0 (16.4%), 1-1 (12.3%), 0-2 (11.0%) and 1-0 (10.6%).
Will both teams score in Newcastle vs Hull City?
The probability that both Newcastle and Hull City score is 33%. Newcastle have a 31% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Hull City 52%.
How many goals should we expect in Newcastle vs Hull City?
The model expects 1.81 goals (0.65 for Newcastle, 1.16 for Hull City). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 54%, over 2.5 goals 27%, over 3.5 goals 11%.
When and where is Newcastle vs Hull City played?
Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 15:00 (UK time), Premier League, matchday 5. Venue: St James' Park, Newcastle.
What form are Newcastle and Hull City in?
Newcastle: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 8 conceded). Hull City: 1 win, 3 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 4 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Newcastle and Hull City?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 3 wins for Newcastle, 0 for Hull City and 2 draws.
What was the Newcastle vs Hull City result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Newcastle 2-1 Hull City. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Hull City (48%), while victory for Newcastle was rated at only 21%. The final score ranked 8th among the most likely scorelines (4.0%), behind 0-1. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (33%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (27%): missed.
How is the Newcastle vs Hull City prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (0.65 for Newcastle, 1.16 for Hull City) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Newcastle predictions
- All Hull City predictions
- Premier League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology