Premier League· Kick-off : Sunday, September 20, 2026, 14:00 (UK time)
Leeds vs Crystal Palace: 0-0 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Leeds 0-0 Crystal Palace. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Leeds (56%), while a draw was rated at only 24%. The model considered this score unlikely (0.9%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (51%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (85%): missed.
Match analysis
Leeds vs Crystal Palace was played on Sunday, September 20, 2026 (Premier League, matchday 5). Venue: Elland Road, Leeds. Before kick-off, our model gave Leeds a 56% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Crystal Palace 20%. The most likely correct score is 3-0 (9.5%), ahead of 4-0 (9.4%) and 5-0 (7.5%).
Over their last 5 matches, Leeds have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 11 and conceding 9. Over their last 5 matches, Crystal Palace have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 13 and conceding 9. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Leeds score 2.20 and concede 1.80 goals per game; Crystal Palace score 2.60 and concede 1.80. In the table, Leeds sit 6th with 8 points from 4 games, Crystal Palace 17th with 3 points from 4. 11 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Leeds have averaged 2.22 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.31 for Crystal Palace.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Leeds, 0 for Crystal Palace and 1 draw. The most recent ended Crystal Palace 0-0 Leeds (Mar 15, 2026). Leeds out or doubtful: M. Joseph, J. Rodon and H. Wilson. Crystal Palace: A. Disasi, D. Henderson, J. Mateta, C. Riad and C. Doucoure. In double chance terms, "Leeds or draw" stands at 80%, "Crystal Palace or draw" at 44% and "no draw" at 76%.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Leeds – Crystal Palace. 3-0 is the single most likely scoreline (9.5%); the 5 scores below add up to 41% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Leeds 3-0 Crystal Palace | 9.5% |
| Leeds 4-0 Crystal Palace | 9.4% |
| Leeds 5-0 Crystal Palace | 7.5% |
| Leeds 2-0 Crystal Palace | 7.2% |
| Leeds 3-1 Crystal Palace | 6.9% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 4.70 goals in total (3.97 for Leeds, 0.73 for Crystal Palace): over 2.5 goals has a 85% probability and both teams to score 51%. Everything points to an open game. Leeds keep a clean sheet in 48% of scenarios, Crystal Palace in 2%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Leeds expected goals | 3.97 |
| Crystal Palace expected goals | 0.73 |
| Both teams to score | 51% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 95% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 85% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 69% |
| Leeds clean sheet | 48% |
| Crystal Palace clean sheet | 2% |
Recent form
Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.
Leeds
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 14, 2026 | Newcastle · Premier League | 4-1 | W |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Chelsea · EFL Cup | 3-6 | L |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Brighton · Premier League | 1-1 | D |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Brentford · Premier League | 1-1 | D |
| Aug 25, 2026 | Nottingham Forest · EFL Cup | 2-0 | W |
Crystal Palace
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 17, 2026 | Lech Poznan · UEFA Europa League | 4-0 | W |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Ipswich · Premier League | 2-3 | L |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Middlesbrough · EFL Cup | 3-0 | W |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Fulham · Premier League | 3-2 | W |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Manchester City · Premier League | 1-4 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leeds | 6 | 8 | 4 |
| Crystal Palace | 17 | 3 | 4 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2026 | Crystal Palace 0-0 Leeds | Premier League |
| Dec 20, 2025 | Leeds 4-1 Crystal Palace | Premier League |
Out and doubtful
Leeds
- M. Joseph (out)
- J. Rodon (out)
- H. Wilson (out)
Crystal Palace
- A. Disasi (out)
- D. Henderson (out)
- J. Mateta (out)
- C. Riad (out)
- C. Doucoure (out)
Other matches in this competition
- Brentford 3-0 ChelseaSep 18, 2026
- Tottenham 2-3 Aston VillaSep 19, 2026
- Brighton 3-0 ArsenalSep 19, 2026
- Everton 1-0 IpswichSep 19, 2026
- Newcastle 2-1 Hull CitySep 19, 2026
- Nottingham Forest 0-1 CoventrySep 19, 2026
- Manchester City 5-3 SunderlandSep 20, 2026
- Bournemouth 0-1 LiverpoolSep 20, 2026
- Fulham 1-1 Manchester UnitedSep 20, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Leeds vs Crystal Palace prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Leeds a 56% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Crystal Palace 20%. Leeds are therefore favourites. Final score: 0-0.
What is the most likely correct score for Leeds vs Crystal Palace?
3-0 (9.5%), followed by 4-0 (9.4%), 5-0 (7.5%), 2-0 (7.2%) and 3-1 (6.9%).
Will both teams score in Leeds vs Crystal Palace?
The probability that both Leeds and Crystal Palace score is 51%. Leeds have a 48% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Crystal Palace 2%.
How many goals should we expect in Leeds vs Crystal Palace?
The model expects 4.70 goals (3.97 for Leeds, 0.73 for Crystal Palace). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 95%, over 2.5 goals 85%, over 3.5 goals 69%.
When and where is Leeds vs Crystal Palace played?
Sunday, September 20, 2026 at 14:00 (UK time), Premier League, matchday 5. Venue: Elland Road, Leeds.
What form are Leeds and Crystal Palace in?
Leeds: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (11 scored, 9 conceded). Crystal Palace: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (13 scored, 9 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Leeds and Crystal Palace?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Leeds, 0 for Crystal Palace and 1 draw. The most recent ended Crystal Palace 0-0 Leeds (Mar 15, 2026).
What was the Leeds vs Crystal Palace result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Leeds 0-0 Crystal Palace. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Leeds (56%), while a draw was rated at only 24%. The model considered this score unlikely (0.9%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (51%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (85%): missed.
How is the Leeds vs Crystal Palace prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (3.97 for Leeds, 0.73 for Crystal Palace) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Leeds predictions
- All Crystal Palace predictions
- Premier League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology