Premier League· Kick-off : Saturday, September 19, 2026, 12:30 (UK time)
Tottenham vs Aston Villa: 2-3 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Tottenham 2-3 Aston Villa. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Tottenham (48%), while victory for Aston Villa was rated at only 26%. The model considered this score unlikely (3.9%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (67%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (66%): correct.
Match analysis
Tottenham vs Aston Villa was played on Saturday, September 19, 2026 (Premier League, matchday 5). Venue: Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London. Before kick-off, our model gave Tottenham a 48% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Aston Villa 26%. The most likely correct score is 1-1 (9.7%), ahead of 2-1 (8.3%) and 1-2 (8.1%).
Tottenham have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 6 and conceding 6. Over their last 5 matches, Aston Villa have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 7 and conceding 6. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Tottenham score 1.20 and concede 1.20 goals per game; Aston Villa score 1.40 and concede 1.20. In the table, Tottenham sit 17th with 2 points from 4 games, Aston Villa 19th with 1 points from 4. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Tottenham have averaged 1.56 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.83 for Aston Villa.
In the last 3 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Tottenham, 2 for Aston Villa and 0 draws. The most recent ended Aston Villa 1-2 Tottenham (May 3, 2026). Tottenham out or doubtful: D. Kulusevski, M. Mudryk, W. Odobert, Richarlison and X. Simons. Aston Villa: L. Goretzka, I. Maatsen, B. Madjo, A. Onana and P. Torres. In double chance terms, "Tottenham or draw" stands at 74%, "Aston Villa or draw" at 53% and "no draw" at 73%.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Tottenham – Aston Villa. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (9.7%); the 5 scores below add up to 39% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Tottenham 1-1 Aston Villa | 9.7% |
| Tottenham 2-1 Aston Villa | 8.3% |
| Tottenham 1-2 Aston Villa | 8.1% |
| Tottenham 2-2 Aston Villa | 6.9% |
| Tottenham 1-0 Aston Villa | 5.8% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 3.38 goals in total (1.71 for Tottenham, 1.67 for Aston Villa): over 2.5 goals has a 66% probability and both teams to score 67%. Everything points to an open game. Tottenham keep a clean sheet in 19% of scenarios, Aston Villa in 18%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Tottenham expected goals | 1.71 |
| Aston Villa expected goals | 1.67 |
| Both teams to score | 67% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44% |
| Tottenham clean sheet | 19% |
| Aston Villa clean sheet | 18% |
Recent form
Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.
Tottenham
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 15, 2026 | Liverpool · EFL Cup | 1-3 | L |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Everton · Premier League | 0-0 | D |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Nottingham Forest · Premier League | 0-0 | D |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Newcastle · Premier League | 0-2 | L |
| Aug 26, 2026 | Charlton · EFL Cup | 5-1 | W |
Aston Villa
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 16, 2026 | Coventry · EFL Cup | 3-1 | W |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Nottingham Forest · Premier League | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Club Brugge KV · UEFA Champions League | 3-2 | W |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Hull City · Premier League | 0-0 | D |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Arsenal · Premier League | 0-1 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tottenham | 17 | 2 | 4 |
| Aston Villa | 19 | 1 | 4 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Aston Villa 1-2 Tottenham | Premier League |
| Jan 10, 2026 | Tottenham 1-2 Aston Villa | FA Cup |
| Oct 19, 2025 | Tottenham 1-2 Aston Villa | Premier League |
Out and doubtful
Tottenham
- D. Kulusevski (out)
- M. Mudryk (out)
- W. Odobert (out)
- Richarlison (out)
- X. Simons (out)
Aston Villa
- L. Goretzka (out)
- I. Maatsen (out)
- B. Madjo (out)
- A. Onana (out)
- P. Torres (out)
Other matches in this competition
- Brentford 3-0 ChelseaSep 18, 2026
- Brighton 3-0 ArsenalSep 19, 2026
- Everton 1-0 IpswichSep 19, 2026
- Newcastle 2-1 Hull CitySep 19, 2026
- Nottingham Forest 0-1 CoventrySep 19, 2026
- Leeds 0-0 Crystal PalaceSep 20, 2026
- Manchester City 5-3 SunderlandSep 20, 2026
- Bournemouth 0-1 LiverpoolSep 20, 2026
- Fulham 1-1 Manchester UnitedSep 20, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Tottenham vs Aston Villa prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Tottenham a 48% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Aston Villa 26%. Tottenham are therefore favourites. Final score: 2-3.
What is the most likely correct score for Tottenham vs Aston Villa?
1-1 (9.7%), followed by 2-1 (8.3%), 1-2 (8.1%), 2-2 (6.9%) and 1-0 (5.8%).
Will both teams score in Tottenham vs Aston Villa?
The probability that both Tottenham and Aston Villa score is 67%. Tottenham have a 19% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Aston Villa 18%.
How many goals should we expect in Tottenham vs Aston Villa?
The model expects 3.38 goals (1.71 for Tottenham, 1.67 for Aston Villa). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 85%, over 2.5 goals 66%, over 3.5 goals 44%.
When and where is Tottenham vs Aston Villa played?
Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 12:30 (UK time), Premier League, matchday 5. Venue: Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London.
What form are Tottenham and Aston Villa in?
Tottenham: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 6 conceded). Aston Villa: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 6 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Tottenham and Aston Villa?
In the last 3 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Tottenham, 2 for Aston Villa and 0 draws. The most recent ended Aston Villa 1-2 Tottenham (May 3, 2026).
What was the Tottenham vs Aston Villa result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Tottenham 2-3 Aston Villa. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Tottenham (48%), while victory for Aston Villa was rated at only 26%. The model considered this score unlikely (3.9%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (67%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (66%): correct.
How is the Tottenham vs Aston Villa prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.71 for Tottenham, 1.67 for Aston Villa) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Tottenham predictions
- All Aston Villa predictions
- Premier League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology