Premier League· Kick-off : Friday, September 18, 2026, 20:00 (UK time)
Brentford vs Chelsea: 3-0 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Brentford 3-0 Chelsea. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Chelsea (40%), while victory for Brentford was rated at only 34%. The model considered this score unlikely (1.8%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (72%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (73%): correct.
Match analysis
Brentford vs Chelsea was played on Friday, September 18, 2026 (Premier League, matchday 5). Venue: Brentford Community Stadium, London. Before kick-off, our model gave Brentford a 34% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Chelsea 40%. The most likely correct score is 1-2 (8.4%), ahead of 1-1 (8.0%) and 2-2 (7.1%).
Brentford are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (2 wins, 3 draws), scoring 12 and conceding 6. Over their last 5 matches, Chelsea have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 15 and conceding 10. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Brentford score 2.40 and concede 1.20 goals per game; Chelsea score 3.00 and concede 2.00. In the table, Brentford sit 7th with 6 points from 4 games, Chelsea 6th with 7 points from 4. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Brentford have averaged 1.65 xG (expected goals) per match, against 2.17 for Chelsea.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Brentford, 1 for Chelsea and 1 draw. The most recent ended Chelsea 2-0 Brentford (Jan 17, 2026). Brentford out or doubtful: N. Collins, J. Dasilva, K. Furo, M. Jensen and S. van den Berg. Chelsea: Joao Pedro, M. Caicedo, E. Emegha, J. Henderson and M. Palestra. In double chance terms, "Brentford or draw" stands at 60%, "Chelsea or draw" at 66% and "no draw" at 75%.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Brentford – Chelsea. 1-2 is the single most likely scoreline (8.4%); the 5 scores below add up to 36% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Brentford 1-2 Chelsea | 8.4% |
| Brentford 1-1 Chelsea | 8.0% |
| Brentford 2-2 Chelsea | 7.1% |
| Brentford 2-1 Chelsea | 6.7% |
| Brentford 1-3 Chelsea | 5.9% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 3.80 goals in total (1.69 for Brentford, 2.11 for Chelsea): over 2.5 goals has a 73% probability and both teams to score 72%. Everything points to an open game. Brentford keep a clean sheet in 12% of scenarios, Chelsea in 19%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Brentford expected goals | 1.69 |
| Chelsea expected goals | 2.11 |
| Both teams to score | 72% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 89% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 73% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 53% |
| Brentford clean sheet | 12% |
| Chelsea clean sheet | 19% |
Recent form
Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.
Brentford
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 15, 2026 | Reading · EFL Cup | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Bournemouth · Premier League | 2-2 | D |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Sunderland · Premier League | 1-1 | D |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Leeds · Premier League | 1-1 | D |
| Aug 25, 2026 | Birmingham · EFL Cup | 6-1 | W |
Chelsea
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 12, 2026 | Hull City · Premier League | 2-2 | D |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Leeds · EFL Cup | 6-3 | W |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Arsenal · Premier League | 1-2 | L |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Brighton · Premier League | 4-3 | W |
| Aug 27, 2026 | Luton · EFL Cup | 2-0 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brentford | 7 | 6 | 4 |
| Chelsea | 6 | 7 | 4 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2026 | Chelsea 2-0 Brentford | Premier League |
| Sep 13, 2025 | Brentford 2-2 Chelsea | Premier League |
Out and doubtful
Brentford
- N. Collins (out)
- J. Dasilva (out)
- K. Furo (out)
- M. Jensen (out)
- S. van den Berg (out)
Chelsea
- Joao Pedro (out)
- M. Caicedo (out)
- E. Emegha (out)
- J. Henderson (out)
- M. Palestra (out)
Other matches in this competition
- Leeds 4-1 NewcastleSep 14, 2026
- Tottenham 2-3 Aston VillaSep 19, 2026
- Brighton 3-0 ArsenalSep 19, 2026
- Everton 1-0 IpswichSep 19, 2026
- Newcastle 2-1 Hull CitySep 19, 2026
- Nottingham Forest 0-1 CoventrySep 19, 2026
- Leeds 0-0 Crystal PalaceSep 20, 2026
- Manchester City 5-3 SunderlandSep 20, 2026
- Bournemouth 0-1 LiverpoolSep 20, 2026
- Fulham 1-1 Manchester UnitedSep 20, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Brentford vs Chelsea prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Brentford a 34% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Chelsea 40%. Chelsea are therefore slight favourites. Final score: 3-0.
What is the most likely correct score for Brentford vs Chelsea?
1-2 (8.4%), followed by 1-1 (8.0%), 2-2 (7.1%), 2-1 (6.7%) and 1-3 (5.9%).
Will both teams score in Brentford vs Chelsea?
The probability that both Brentford and Chelsea score is 72%. Brentford have a 12% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Chelsea 19%.
How many goals should we expect in Brentford vs Chelsea?
The model expects 3.80 goals (1.69 for Brentford, 2.11 for Chelsea). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 89%, over 2.5 goals 73%, over 3.5 goals 53%.
When and where is Brentford vs Chelsea played?
Friday, September 18, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), Premier League, matchday 5. Venue: Brentford Community Stadium, London.
What form are Brentford and Chelsea in?
Brentford: 2 wins, 3 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (12 scored, 6 conceded). Chelsea: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (15 scored, 10 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Brentford and Chelsea?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Brentford, 1 for Chelsea and 1 draw. The most recent ended Chelsea 2-0 Brentford (Jan 17, 2026).
What was the Brentford vs Chelsea result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Brentford 3-0 Chelsea. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Chelsea (40%), while victory for Brentford was rated at only 34%. The model considered this score unlikely (1.8%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (72%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (73%): correct.
How is the Brentford vs Chelsea prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.69 for Brentford, 2.11 for Chelsea) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Brentford predictions
- All Chelsea predictions
- Premier League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology