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Premier LeaguePremier League· Kick-off : Monday, September 14, 2026, 20:00 (UK time)

Leeds vs Newcastle: 4-1 result and AI prediction review

LeedsLeeds4 – 1NewcastleNewcastle

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome correctExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 1-0

Final score: Leeds 4-1 Newcastle. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Leeds was the model's favourite outcome (41%). The model considered this score unlikely (3.1%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (52%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (55%): correct.

Match analysis

Leeds vs Newcastle was played on Monday, September 14, 2026 (Premier League, matchday 4). Venue: Elland Road, Leeds. Before kick-off, our model gave Leeds a 41% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Newcastle 32%. The most likely correct score is 1-0 (11.1%), ahead of 2-0 (10.8%) and 1-1 (10.2%).

Over their last 5 matches, Leeds have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 8 and conceding 8. Newcastle are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (3 wins, 2 draws), scoring 10 and conceding 6. Recent momentum is clearly with Newcastle. On average Leeds score 1.60 and concede 1.60 goals per game; Newcastle score 2.00 and concede 1.20. In the table, Leeds sit 11th with 5 points from 3 games, Newcastle 10th with 5 points from 3. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Leeds have averaged 1.79 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.00 for Newcastle.

In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Leeds, 1 for Newcastle and 1 draw. The most recent ended Newcastle 4-3 Leeds (Jan 7, 2026). Leeds out or doubtful: M. Joseph, J. Rodon and I. Gruev. Newcastle: D. Burn, Joelinton, W. Osula, A. Dedic and E. Jaouen. In double chance terms, "Leeds or draw" stands at 68%, "Newcastle or draw" at 59% and "no draw" at 73%.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

41%
Leeds (Win)
27%
Draw
32%
Newcastle (Win)

Double chance

68%
Leeds or draw
59%
Newcastle or draw
73%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Leeds – Newcastle. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (11.1%); the 5 scores below add up to 49% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Leeds 1-0 Newcastle11.1%
Leeds 2-0 Newcastle10.8%
Leeds 1-1 Newcastle10.2%
Leeds 2-1 Newcastle9.9%
Leeds 3-0 Newcastle7.0%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

The model expects 2.87 goals in total (1.95 for Leeds, 0.92 for Newcastle): over 2.5 goals has a 55% probability and both teams to score 52%. Leeds keep a clean sheet in 40% of scenarios, Newcastle in 14%.

Probability
Leeds expected goals1.95
Newcastle expected goals0.92
Both teams to score52%
Over 1.5 goals78%
Over 2.5 goals55%
Over 3.5 goals32%
Leeds clean sheet40%
Newcastle clean sheet14%

Recent form

Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.

Leeds

DateOpponentScore
Sep 9, 2026Chelsea · EFL Cup3-6L
Sep 5, 2026Brighton · Premier League1-1D
Aug 30, 2026Brentford · Premier League1-1D
Aug 25, 2026Nottingham Forest · EFL Cup2-0W
Aug 22, 2026Nottingham Forest · Premier League1-0W

Newcastle

DateOpponentScore
Sep 8, 2026Millwall · EFL Cup1-0W
Sep 5, 2026Bournemouth · Premier League2-2D
Aug 29, 2026Tottenham · Premier League2-0W
Aug 26, 2026West Brom · EFL Cup3-2W
Aug 23, 2026Liverpool · Premier League2-2D

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Leeds1153
Newcastle1053

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
Jan 7, 2026Newcastle 4-3 LeedsPremier League
Aug 30, 2025Leeds 0-0 NewcastlePremier League

Out and doubtful

Leeds

  • M. Joseph (out)
  • J. Rodon (out)
  • I. Gruev (out)

Newcastle

  • D. Burn (out)
  • Joelinton (out)
  • W. Osula (out)
  • A. Dedic (out)
  • E. Jaouen (out)

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Leeds vs Newcastle prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Leeds a 41% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Newcastle 32%. Leeds are therefore slight favourites. Final score: 4-1.

What is the most likely correct score for Leeds vs Newcastle?

1-0 (11.1%), followed by 2-0 (10.8%), 1-1 (10.2%), 2-1 (9.9%) and 3-0 (7.0%).

Will both teams score in Leeds vs Newcastle?

The probability that both Leeds and Newcastle score is 52%. Leeds have a 40% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Newcastle 14%.

How many goals should we expect in Leeds vs Newcastle?

The model expects 2.87 goals (1.95 for Leeds, 0.92 for Newcastle). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 78%, over 2.5 goals 55%, over 3.5 goals 32%.

When and where is Leeds vs Newcastle played?

Monday, September 14, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), Premier League, matchday 4. Venue: Elland Road, Leeds.

What form are Leeds and Newcastle in?

Leeds: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 8 conceded). Newcastle: 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 6 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Leeds and Newcastle?

In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Leeds, 1 for Newcastle and 1 draw. The most recent ended Newcastle 4-3 Leeds (Jan 7, 2026).

What was the Leeds vs Newcastle result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Leeds 4-1 Newcastle. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Leeds was the model's favourite outcome (41%). The model considered this score unlikely (3.1%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (52%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (55%): correct.

How is the Leeds vs Newcastle prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.95 for Leeds, 0.92 for Newcastle) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained