Skip to content
Elofoot

Premier LeaguePremier League· Kick-off : Saturday, September 12, 2026, 15:00 (UK time)

Chelsea vs Hull City: 2-2 result and AI prediction review

ChelseaChelsea2 – 2Hull CityHull City

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome missedExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 2-0

Final score: Chelsea 2-2 Hull City. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Chelsea (79%), while a draw was rated at only 14%. The final score ranked 7th among the most likely scorelines (4.7%), behind 2-0. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (56%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (65%): correct.

Match analysis

Chelsea and Hull City met on Saturday, September 12, 2026, a Premier League, matchday 4 fixture. Venue: Stamford Bridge, London. Before kick-off, our model gave Chelsea a 79% chance of winning, the draw 14% and Hull City 7%. On the correct score, 2-0 comes out on top (10.0%), followed by 2-1 (9.7%) and 1-0 (8.4%).

Over their last 5 matches, Chelsea have 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 16 and conceding 10. Over their last 5 matches, Hull City have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 4 and conceding 2. Chelsea therefore arrive in far better shape than Hull City. On average Chelsea score 3.20 and concede 2.00 goals per game; Hull City score 0.80 and concede 0.40. In the table, Chelsea sit 4th with 6 points from 3 games, Hull City 3rd with 7 points from 3. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Chelsea have averaged 2.19 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.05 for Hull City.

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Chelsea, 0 for Hull City and 0 draws. The most recent ended Hull City 0-4 Chelsea (Feb 13, 2026). Chelsea out or doubtful: M. Caicedo, E. Emegha, J. Henderson and M. Palestra. Hull City: I. Ansah, J. Butland, D. Gyabi, C. Hughes and E. Matazo. In double chance terms, "Chelsea or draw" stands at 93%, "Hull City or draw" at 21% and "no draw" at 86%.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

79%
Chelsea (Win)
14%
Draw
7%
Hull City (Win)

Double chance

93%
Chelsea or draw
21%
Hull City or draw
86%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Chelsea – Hull City. 2-0 is the single most likely scoreline (10.0%); the 5 scores below add up to 44% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Chelsea 2-0 Hull City10.0%
Chelsea 2-1 Hull City9.7%
Chelsea 1-0 Hull City8.4%
Chelsea 1-1 Hull City8.2%
Chelsea 3-0 Hull City7.8%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

With 2.36 expected goals for Chelsea and 0.97 for Hull City, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 65% and "both teams to score" at 56%. Goals look likely in this one. Chelsea keep a clean sheet in 38% of scenarios, Hull City in 9%.

Probability
Chelsea expected goals2.36
Hull City expected goals0.97
Both teams to score56%
Over 1.5 goals85%
Over 2.5 goals65%
Over 3.5 goals43%
Chelsea clean sheet38%
Hull City clean sheet9%

Recent form

Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.

Chelsea

DateOpponentScore
Sep 9, 2026Leeds · EFL Cup6-3W
Sep 6, 2026Arsenal · Premier League1-2L
Aug 30, 2026Brighton · Premier League4-3W
Aug 27, 2026Luton · EFL Cup2-0W
Aug 24, 2026Fulham · Premier League3-2W

Hull City

DateOpponentScore
Sep 8, 2026Sunderland · EFL Cup0-1L
Sep 5, 2026Aston Villa · Premier League0-0D
Aug 29, 2026Coventry · Premier League1-0W
Aug 25, 2026Stoke City · EFL Cup1-1D
Aug 22, 2026Manchester United · Premier League2-0W

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Chelsea463
Hull City373

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
Feb 13, 2026Hull City 0-4 ChelseaFA Cup

Out and doubtful

Chelsea

  • M. Caicedo (out)
  • E. Emegha (out)
  • J. Henderson (out)
  • M. Palestra (out)

Hull City

  • I. Ansah (out)
  • J. Butland (out)
  • D. Gyabi (out)
  • C. Hughes (out)
  • E. Matazo (out)

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Chelsea vs Hull City prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Chelsea a 79% chance of winning, the draw 14% and Hull City 7%. Chelsea are therefore favourites. Final score: 2-2.

What is the most likely correct score for Chelsea vs Hull City?

2-0 (10.0%), followed by 2-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (8.4%), 1-1 (8.2%) and 3-0 (7.8%).

Will both teams score in Chelsea vs Hull City?

The probability that both Chelsea and Hull City score is 56%. Chelsea have a 38% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Hull City 9%.

How many goals should we expect in Chelsea vs Hull City?

The model expects 3.33 goals (2.36 for Chelsea, 0.97 for Hull City). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 85%, over 2.5 goals 65%, over 3.5 goals 43%.

When and where is Chelsea vs Hull City played?

Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 15:00 (UK time), Premier League, matchday 4. Venue: Stamford Bridge, London.

What form are Chelsea and Hull City in?

Chelsea: 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (16 scored, 10 conceded). Hull City: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 2 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Chelsea and Hull City?

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Chelsea, 0 for Hull City and 0 draws. The most recent ended Hull City 0-4 Chelsea (Feb 13, 2026).

What was the Chelsea vs Hull City result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Chelsea 2-2 Hull City. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Chelsea (79%), while a draw was rated at only 14%. The final score ranked 7th among the most likely scorelines (4.7%), behind 2-0. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (56%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (65%): correct.

How is the Chelsea vs Hull City prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.36 for Chelsea, 0.97 for Hull City) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained