Premier League· Kick-off : Saturday, September 12, 2026, 15:00 (UK time)
Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest: 1-2 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Aston Villa 1-2 Nottingham Forest. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Aston Villa (48%), while victory for Nottingham Forest was rated at only 27%. The final score ranked 6th among the most likely scorelines (6.7%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (54%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (52%): correct.
Match analysis
Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest was played on Saturday, September 12, 2026 (Premier League, matchday 4). Venue: Villa Park, Birmingham. Before kick-off, our model gave Aston Villa a 48% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Nottingham Forest 27%. The most likely correct score is 1-1 (11.8%), ahead of 1-0 (10.3%) and 2-1 (9.4%).
Aston Villa have won just one of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 3 defeats), scoring 4 and conceding 9. Nottingham Forest have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 4 and conceding 5. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Aston Villa score 0.80 and concede 1.80 goals per game; Nottingham Forest score 0.80 and concede 1.00. In the table, Aston Villa sit 17th with 1 points from 3 games, Nottingham Forest 16th with 2 points from 3. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Aston Villa have averaged 1.44 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.26 for Nottingham Forest.
In the last 4 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Aston Villa, 1 for Nottingham Forest and 1 draw. The most recent ended Aston Villa 4-0 Nottingham Forest (May 7, 2026). Aston Villa out or doubtful: L. Goretzka, Joao Gomes, B. Madjo, A. Onana and J. Manzambi. Nottingham Forest: N. Savona. In double chance terms, "Aston Villa or draw" stands at 73%, "Nottingham Forest or draw" at 52% and "no draw" at 75%.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Aston Villa – Nottingham Forest. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (11.8%); the 5 scores below add up to 47% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Aston Villa 1-1 Nottingham Forest | 11.8% |
| Aston Villa 1-0 Nottingham Forest | 10.3% |
| Aston Villa 2-1 Nottingham Forest | 9.4% |
| Aston Villa 2-0 Nottingham Forest | 8.3% |
| Aston Villa 0-1 Nottingham Forest | 7.4% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.74 goals in total (1.60 for Aston Villa, 1.14 for Nottingham Forest): over 2.5 goals has a 52% probability and both teams to score 54%. Aston Villa keep a clean sheet in 32% of scenarios, Nottingham Forest in 20%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Aston Villa expected goals | 1.60 |
| Nottingham Forest expected goals | 1.14 |
| Both teams to score | 54% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% |
| Aston Villa clean sheet | 32% |
| Nottingham Forest clean sheet | 20% |
Recent form
Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.
Aston Villa
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 8, 2026 | Club Brugge KV · UEFA Champions League | 3-2 | W |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Hull City · Premier League | 0-0 | D |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Arsenal · Premier League | 0-1 | L |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Brighton · Premier League | 0-4 | L |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Borussia Mönchengladbach · Club Friendlies | 1-2 | L |
Nottingham Forest
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | Tottenham · Premier League | 0-0 | D |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Liverpool · Premier League | 2-2 | D |
| Aug 25, 2026 | Leeds · EFL Cup | 0-2 | L |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Leeds · Premier League | 0-1 | L |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Stade Brestois 29 · Club Friendlies | 2-0 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa | 17 | 1 | 3 |
| Nottingham Forest | 16 | 2 | 3 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 7, 2026 | Aston Villa 4-0 Nottingham Forest | UEFA Europa League |
| Apr 30, 2026 | Nottingham Forest 1-0 Aston Villa | UEFA Europa League |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Nottingham Forest 1-1 Aston Villa | Premier League |
| Jan 3, 2026 | Aston Villa 3-1 Nottingham Forest | Premier League |
Out and doubtful
Aston Villa
- L. Goretzka (out)
- Joao Gomes (out)
- B. Madjo (out)
- A. Onana (out)
- J. Manzambi (out)
Nottingham Forest
- N. Savona (out)
Other matches in this competition
- Chelsea 2-2 Hull CitySep 12, 2026
- Crystal Palace 2-3 IpswichSep 12, 2026
- Bournemouth 2-2 BrentfordSep 12, 2026
- Liverpool 0-0 FulhamSep 12, 2026
- Tottenham 0-0 EvertonSep 12, 2026
- Sunderland 0-2 ArsenalSep 12, 2026
- Coventry 0-5 BrightonSep 13, 2026
- Manchester United 0-1 Manchester CitySep 13, 2026
- Leeds 4-1 NewcastleSep 14, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Aston Villa a 48% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Nottingham Forest 27%. Aston Villa are therefore favourites. Final score: 1-2.
What is the most likely correct score for Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest?
1-1 (11.8%), followed by 1-0 (10.3%), 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (8.3%) and 0-1 (7.4%).
Will both teams score in Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest?
The probability that both Aston Villa and Nottingham Forest score is 54%. Aston Villa have a 32% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Nottingham Forest 20%.
How many goals should we expect in Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest?
The model expects 2.74 goals (1.60 for Aston Villa, 1.14 for Nottingham Forest). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 76%, over 2.5 goals 52%, over 3.5 goals 30%.
When and where is Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest played?
Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 15:00 (UK time), Premier League, matchday 4. Venue: Villa Park, Birmingham.
What form are Aston Villa and Nottingham Forest in?
Aston Villa: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 9 conceded). Nottingham Forest: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 5 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Aston Villa and Nottingham Forest?
In the last 4 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Aston Villa, 1 for Nottingham Forest and 1 draw. The most recent ended Aston Villa 4-0 Nottingham Forest (May 7, 2026).
What was the Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Aston Villa 1-2 Nottingham Forest. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Aston Villa (48%), while victory for Nottingham Forest was rated at only 27%. The final score ranked 6th among the most likely scorelines (6.7%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (54%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (52%): correct.
How is the Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.60 for Aston Villa, 1.14 for Nottingham Forest) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Aston Villa predictions
- All Nottingham Forest predictions
- Premier League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology