Premier League· Kick-off : Sunday, September 13, 2026, 16:30 (UK time)
Manchester United vs Manchester City: 0-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Manchester United 0-1 Manchester City. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Manchester City was the model's favourite outcome (57%). The model considered this score unlikely (2.6%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (80%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (85%): missed.
Match analysis
Manchester United vs Manchester City was played on Sunday, September 13, 2026 (Premier League, matchday 4). Venue: Old Trafford, Manchester. Before kick-off, our model gave Manchester United a 25% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Manchester City 57%. The most likely correct score is 1-2 (6.8%), ahead of 2-2 (6.5%) and 1-3 (6.3%).
Over their last 5 matches, Manchester United have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 13 and conceding 10. Over their last 5 matches, Manchester City have 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 9 and conceding 5. Recent momentum is clearly with Manchester City. On average Manchester United score 2.60 and concede 2.00 goals per game; Manchester City score 1.80 and concede 1.00. In the table, Manchester United sit 13th with 4 points from 3 games, Manchester City 2nd with 9 points from 3. 11 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Manchester United have averaged 2.36 xG (expected goals) per match, against 2.23 for Manchester City.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Manchester United, 1 for Manchester City and 0 draws. The most recent ended Manchester United 2-0 Manchester City (Jan 17, 2026). Manchester United out or doubtful: C. Baleba, A. Diallo, T. Heaton, M. Ugarte and M. de Ligt. Manchester City: J. Doku and N. O'Reilly. In double chance terms, "Manchester United or draw" stands at 43%, "Manchester City or draw" at 75% and "no draw" at 82%.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Manchester United – Manchester City. 1-2 is the single most likely scoreline (6.8%); the 5 scores below add up to 31% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Manchester United 1-2 Manchester City | 6.8% |
| Manchester United 2-2 Manchester City | 6.5% |
| Manchester United 1-3 Manchester City | 6.3% |
| Manchester United 2-3 Manchester City | 6.0% |
| Manchester United 1-1 Manchester City | 4.9% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 4.68 goals in total (1.89 for Manchester United, 2.79 for Manchester City): over 2.5 goals has a 85% probability and both teams to score 80%. Everything points to an open game. Manchester United keep a clean sheet in 6% of scenarios, Manchester City in 15%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Manchester United expected goals | 1.89 |
| Manchester City expected goals | 2.79 |
| Both teams to score | 80% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 95% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 85% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 69% |
| Manchester United clean sheet | 6% |
| Manchester City clean sheet | 15% |
Recent form
Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.
Manchester United
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 10, 2026 | Sabah FA · UEFA Champions League | 4-0 | W |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Everton · Premier League | 2-2 | D |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Ipswich · Premier League | 5-2 | W |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Hull City · Premier League | 0-2 | L |
| Aug 15, 2026 | AC Milan · Club Friendlies | 2-4 | L |
Manchester City
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 8, 2026 | FC Porto · UEFA Champions League | 2-0 | W |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Coventry · Premier League | 1-0 | W |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Crystal Palace · Premier League | 4-1 | W |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Bournemouth · Premier League | 2-1 | W |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Arsenal · FA Community Shield | 0-3 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United | 13 | 4 | 3 |
| Manchester City | 2 | 9 | 3 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2026 | Manchester United 2-0 Manchester City | Premier League |
| Sep 14, 2025 | Manchester City 3-0 Manchester United | Premier League |
Out and doubtful
Manchester United
- C. Baleba (out)
- A. Diallo (out)
- T. Heaton (out)
- M. Ugarte (out)
- M. de Ligt (out)
Manchester City
- J. Doku (out)
- N. O'Reilly (out)
Other matches in this competition
- Chelsea 2-2 Hull CitySep 12, 2026
- Crystal Palace 2-3 IpswichSep 12, 2026
- Aston Villa 1-2 Nottingham ForestSep 12, 2026
- Bournemouth 2-2 BrentfordSep 12, 2026
- Liverpool 0-0 FulhamSep 12, 2026
- Tottenham 0-0 EvertonSep 12, 2026
- Sunderland 0-2 ArsenalSep 12, 2026
- Coventry 0-5 BrightonSep 13, 2026
- Leeds 4-1 NewcastleSep 14, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Manchester United vs Manchester City prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Manchester United a 25% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Manchester City 57%. Manchester City are therefore favourites. Final score: 0-1.
What is the most likely correct score for Manchester United vs Manchester City?
1-2 (6.8%), followed by 2-2 (6.5%), 1-3 (6.3%), 2-3 (6.0%) and 1-1 (4.9%).
Will both teams score in Manchester United vs Manchester City?
The probability that both Manchester United and Manchester City score is 80%. Manchester United have a 6% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Manchester City 15%.
How many goals should we expect in Manchester United vs Manchester City?
The model expects 4.68 goals (1.89 for Manchester United, 2.79 for Manchester City). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 95%, over 2.5 goals 85%, over 3.5 goals 69%.
When and where is Manchester United vs Manchester City played?
Sunday, September 13, 2026 at 16:30 (UK time), Premier League, matchday 4. Venue: Old Trafford, Manchester.
What form are Manchester United and Manchester City in?
Manchester United: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (13 scored, 10 conceded). Manchester City: 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 5 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Manchester United and Manchester City?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Manchester United, 1 for Manchester City and 0 draws. The most recent ended Manchester United 2-0 Manchester City (Jan 17, 2026).
What was the Manchester United vs Manchester City result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Manchester United 0-1 Manchester City. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Manchester City was the model's favourite outcome (57%). The model considered this score unlikely (2.6%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (80%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (85%): missed.
How is the Manchester United vs Manchester City prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.89 for Manchester United, 2.79 for Manchester City) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Manchester United predictions
- All Manchester City predictions
- Premier League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology