Premier League· Kick-off : Saturday, September 12, 2026, 15:00 (UK time)
Bournemouth vs Brentford: 2-2 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Bournemouth 2-2 Brentford. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Brentford (79%), while a draw was rated at only 12%. The final score ranked 10th among the most likely scorelines (4.0%), behind 0-3. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (60%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (77%): correct.
Match analysis
Bournemouth and Brentford met on Saturday, September 12, 2026, a Premier League, matchday 4 fixture. Venue: Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth. Before kick-off, our model gave Bournemouth a 9% chance of winning, the draw 12% and Brentford 79%. On the correct score, 0-3 comes out on top (8.2%), followed by 1-3 (8.2%) and 0-2 (8.0%).
Bournemouth have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 9 and conceding 7. Brentford are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (3 wins, 2 draws), scoring 18 and conceding 3. Brentford therefore arrive in far better shape than Bournemouth. On average Bournemouth score 1.80 and concede 1.40 goals per game; Brentford score 3.60 and concede 0.60. In the table, Bournemouth sit 15th with 2 points from 3 games, Brentford 5th with 5 points from 3. 10 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Bournemouth have averaged 1.39 xG (expected goals) per match, against 2.21 for Brentford.
In the last 3 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Bournemouth, 2 for Brentford and 1 draw. The most recent ended Bournemouth 0-0 Brentford (Mar 3, 2026). Bournemouth out or doubtful: A. Adli, J. Araujo, E. J. Kroupi and V. Milosavljevic. Brentford: J. Dasilva, A. Milambo, S. van den Berg, N. Collins and M. Jensen. In double chance terms, "Bournemouth or draw" stands at 21%, "Brentford or draw" at 91% and "no draw" at 88%.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Bournemouth – Brentford. 0-3 is the single most likely scoreline (8.2%); the 5 scores below add up to 39% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Bournemouth 0-3 Brentford | 8.2% |
| Bournemouth 1-3 Brentford | 8.2% |
| Bournemouth 0-2 Brentford | 8.0% |
| Bournemouth 1-2 Brentford | 8.0% |
| Bournemouth 0-4 Brentford | 6.3% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.00 expected goals for Bournemouth and 3.08 for Brentford, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 77% and "both teams to score" at 60%. Goals look likely in this one. Bournemouth keep a clean sheet in 5% of scenarios, Brentford in 37%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Bournemouth expected goals | 1.00 |
| Brentford expected goals | 3.08 |
| Both teams to score | 60% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 91% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 77% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 58% |
| Bournemouth clean sheet | 5% |
| Brentford clean sheet | 37% |
Recent form
Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.
Bournemouth
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 8, 2026 | Lincoln · EFL Cup | 4-0 | W |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Newcastle · Premier League | 2-2 | D |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Everton · Premier League | 1-1 | D |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Manchester City · Premier League | 1-2 | L |
| Aug 15, 2026 | FSV Mainz 05 · Club Friendlies | 1-2 | L |
Brentford
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | Sunderland · Premier League | 1-1 | D |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Leeds · Premier League | 1-1 | D |
| Aug 25, 2026 | Birmingham · EFL Cup | 6-1 | W |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Tottenham · Premier League | 3-0 | W |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Eintracht Frankfurt · Club Friendlies | 7-0 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth | 15 | 2 | 3 |
| Brentford | 5 | 5 | 3 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2026 | Bournemouth 0-0 Brentford | Premier League |
| Dec 27, 2025 | Brentford 4-1 Bournemouth | Premier League |
| Aug 26, 2025 | Bournemouth 0-2 Brentford | EFL Cup |
Out and doubtful
Bournemouth
- A. Adli (out)
- J. Araujo (out)
- E. J. Kroupi (out)
- V. Milosavljevic (out)
Brentford
- J. Dasilva (out)
- A. Milambo (out)
- S. van den Berg (out)
- N. Collins (out)
- M. Jensen (out)
Other matches in this competition
- Chelsea 2-2 Hull CitySep 12, 2026
- Crystal Palace 2-3 IpswichSep 12, 2026
- Aston Villa 1-2 Nottingham ForestSep 12, 2026
- Liverpool 0-0 FulhamSep 12, 2026
- Tottenham 0-0 EvertonSep 12, 2026
- Sunderland 0-2 ArsenalSep 12, 2026
- Coventry 0-5 BrightonSep 13, 2026
- Manchester United 0-1 Manchester CitySep 13, 2026
- Leeds 4-1 NewcastleSep 14, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Bournemouth vs Brentford prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Bournemouth a 9% chance of winning, the draw 12% and Brentford 79%. Brentford are therefore favourites. Final score: 2-2.
What is the most likely correct score for Bournemouth vs Brentford?
0-3 (8.2%), followed by 1-3 (8.2%), 0-2 (8.0%), 1-2 (8.0%) and 0-4 (6.3%).
Will both teams score in Bournemouth vs Brentford?
The probability that both Bournemouth and Brentford score is 60%. Bournemouth have a 5% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Brentford 37%.
How many goals should we expect in Bournemouth vs Brentford?
The model expects 4.08 goals (1.00 for Bournemouth, 3.08 for Brentford). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 91%, over 2.5 goals 77%, over 3.5 goals 58%.
When and where is Bournemouth vs Brentford played?
Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 15:00 (UK time), Premier League, matchday 4. Venue: Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth.
What form are Bournemouth and Brentford in?
Bournemouth: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 7 conceded). Brentford: 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (18 scored, 3 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Bournemouth and Brentford?
In the last 3 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Bournemouth, 2 for Brentford and 1 draw. The most recent ended Bournemouth 0-0 Brentford (Mar 3, 2026).
What was the Bournemouth vs Brentford result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Bournemouth 2-2 Brentford. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Brentford (79%), while a draw was rated at only 12%. The final score ranked 10th among the most likely scorelines (4.0%), behind 0-3. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (60%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (77%): correct.
How is the Bournemouth vs Brentford prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.00 for Bournemouth, 3.08 for Brentford) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Bournemouth predictions
- All Brentford predictions
- Premier League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology