Premier League· Kick-off : Sunday, September 20, 2026, 16:30 (UK time)
Fulham vs Manchester United: 1-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Fulham 1-1 Manchester United. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Fulham (52%), while a draw was rated at only 18%. The final score ranked 7th among the most likely scorelines (4.6%), behind 2-2. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (82%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (86%): missed.
Match analysis
Fulham and Manchester United met on Sunday, September 20, 2026, a Premier League, matchday 5 fixture. Venue: Craven Cottage, London. Before kick-off, our model gave Fulham a 52% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Manchester United 30%. On the correct score, 2-2 comes out on top (6.6%), followed by 2-1 (6.2%) and 3-2 (6.0%).
Over their last 5 matches, Fulham have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 8 and conceding 6. Over their last 5 matches, Manchester United have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 13 and conceding 8. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Fulham score 1.60 and concede 1.20 goals per game; Manchester United score 2.60 and concede 1.60. In the table, Fulham sit 20th with 1 points from 4 games, Manchester United 13th with 4 points from 4. 7 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Fulham have averaged 2.77 xG (expected goals) per match, against 2.08 for Manchester United.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Fulham, 1 for Manchester United and 1 draw. The most recent ended Manchester United 3-2 Fulham (Feb 1, 2026). Fulham out or doubtful: T. Cairney, K. Tete and R. Sessegnon. Manchester United: A. Diallo, T. Heaton, M. Ugarte, M. de Ligt and C. Baleba. In double chance terms, "Fulham or draw" stands at 70%, "Manchester United or draw" at 48% and "no draw" at 82%.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Fulham – Manchester United. 2-2 is the single most likely scoreline (6.6%); the 5 scores below add up to 29% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Fulham 2-2 Manchester United | 6.6% |
| Fulham 2-1 Manchester United | 6.2% |
| Fulham 3-2 Manchester United | 6.0% |
| Fulham 3-1 Manchester United | 5.6% |
| Fulham 1-2 Manchester United | 4.8% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 2.72 expected goals for Fulham and 2.12 for Manchester United, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 86% and "both teams to score" at 82%. Goals look likely in this one. Fulham keep a clean sheet in 12% of scenarios, Manchester United in 7%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Fulham expected goals | 2.72 |
| Manchester United expected goals | 2.12 |
| Both teams to score | 82% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 95% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 86% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 71% |
| Fulham clean sheet | 12% |
| Manchester United clean sheet | 7% |
Recent form
Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.
Fulham
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 15, 2026 | West Ham · EFL Cup | 3-2 | W |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Liverpool · Premier League | 0-0 | D |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Crystal Palace · Premier League | 2-3 | L |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Sunderland · Premier League | 0-1 | L |
| Aug 27, 2026 | AFC Wimbledon · EFL Cup | 3-0 | W |
Manchester United
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 16, 2026 | Brighton · EFL Cup | 2-3 | L |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Manchester City · Premier League | 0-1 | L |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Sabah FA · UEFA Champions League | 4-0 | W |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Everton · Premier League | 2-2 | D |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Ipswich · Premier League | 5-2 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fulham | 20 | 1 | 4 |
| Manchester United | 13 | 4 | 4 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 1, 2026 | Manchester United 3-2 Fulham | Premier League |
| Aug 24, 2025 | Fulham 1-1 Manchester United | Premier League |
Out and doubtful
Fulham
- T. Cairney (out)
- K. Tete (out)
- R. Sessegnon (out)
Manchester United
- A. Diallo (out)
- T. Heaton (out)
- M. Ugarte (out)
- M. de Ligt (out)
- C. Baleba (out)
Other matches in this competition
- Brentford 3-0 ChelseaSep 18, 2026
- Tottenham 2-3 Aston VillaSep 19, 2026
- Brighton 3-0 ArsenalSep 19, 2026
- Everton 1-0 IpswichSep 19, 2026
- Newcastle 2-1 Hull CitySep 19, 2026
- Nottingham Forest 0-1 CoventrySep 19, 2026
- Leeds 0-0 Crystal PalaceSep 20, 2026
- Manchester City 5-3 SunderlandSep 20, 2026
- Bournemouth 0-1 LiverpoolSep 20, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Fulham vs Manchester United prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Fulham a 52% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Manchester United 30%. Fulham are therefore favourites. Final score: 1-1.
What is the most likely correct score for Fulham vs Manchester United?
2-2 (6.6%), followed by 2-1 (6.2%), 3-2 (6.0%), 3-1 (5.6%) and 1-2 (4.8%).
Will both teams score in Fulham vs Manchester United?
The probability that both Fulham and Manchester United score is 82%. Fulham have a 12% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Manchester United 7%.
How many goals should we expect in Fulham vs Manchester United?
The model expects 4.84 goals (2.72 for Fulham, 2.12 for Manchester United). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 95%, over 2.5 goals 86%, over 3.5 goals 71%.
When and where is Fulham vs Manchester United played?
Sunday, September 20, 2026 at 16:30 (UK time), Premier League, matchday 5. Venue: Craven Cottage, London.
What form are Fulham and Manchester United in?
Fulham: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 6 conceded). Manchester United: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (13 scored, 8 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Manchester United?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Fulham, 1 for Manchester United and 1 draw. The most recent ended Manchester United 3-2 Fulham (Feb 1, 2026).
What was the Fulham vs Manchester United result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Fulham 1-1 Manchester United. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Fulham (52%), while a draw was rated at only 18%. The final score ranked 7th among the most likely scorelines (4.6%), behind 2-2. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (82%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (86%): missed.
How is the Fulham vs Manchester United prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.72 for Fulham, 2.12 for Manchester United) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Fulham predictions
- All Manchester United predictions
- Premier League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology