Premier League· Kick-off : Saturday, September 19, 2026, 17:30 (UK time)
Nottingham Forest vs Coventry: 0-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Nottingham Forest 0-1 Coventry. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Nottingham Forest (59%), while victory for Coventry was rated at only 18%. The final score ranked 8th among the most likely scorelines (5.8%), behind 1-0. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (50%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (52%): missed.
Match analysis
Nottingham Forest and Coventry met on Saturday, September 19, 2026, a Premier League, matchday 5 fixture. Venue: City Ground, Nottingham. Before kick-off, our model gave Nottingham Forest a 59% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Coventry 18%. On the correct score, 1-0 comes out on top (11.8%), followed by 2-0 (10.8%) and 1-1 (10.7%).
Nottingham Forest have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 4 and conceding 6. Coventry have won just one of their last 5 matches (0 draws, 4 defeats), scoring 5 and conceding 12. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Nottingham Forest score 0.80 and concede 1.20 goals per game; Coventry score 1.00 and concede 2.40. In the table, Nottingham Forest sit 11th with 5 points from 4 games, Coventry 20th with 0 points from 4. 9 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Nottingham Forest have averaged 1.26 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.33 for Coventry.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 3 wins for Nottingham Forest, 2 for Coventry and 0 draws. Nottingham Forest out or doubtful: N. Milenkovic, N. Savona and Cunha. Coventry: A. Amenda, T. Awoniyi, J. Eccles, K. Kesler-Hayden and L. Woolfenden. In double chance terms, "Nottingham Forest or draw" stands at 82%, "Coventry or draw" at 41% and "no draw" at 77%.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Nottingham Forest – Coventry. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (11.8%); the 5 scores below add up to 50% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Nottingham Forest 1-0 Coventry | 11.8% |
| Nottingham Forest 2-0 Coventry | 10.8% |
| Nottingham Forest 1-1 Coventry | 10.7% |
| Nottingham Forest 2-1 Coventry | 9.8% |
| Nottingham Forest 3-0 Coventry | 6.6% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.84 expected goals for Nottingham Forest and 0.91 for Coventry, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 52% and "both teams to score" at 50%. Nottingham Forest keep a clean sheet in 40% of scenarios, Coventry in 16%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Nottingham Forest expected goals | 1.84 |
| Coventry expected goals | 0.91 |
| Both teams to score | 50% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% |
| Nottingham Forest clean sheet | 40% |
| Coventry clean sheet | 16% |
Recent form
Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.
Nottingham Forest
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 12, 2026 | Aston Villa · Premier League | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Tottenham · Premier League | 0-0 | D |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Liverpool · Premier League | 2-2 | D |
| Aug 25, 2026 | Leeds · EFL Cup | 0-2 | L |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Leeds · Premier League | 0-1 | L |
Coventry
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 16, 2026 | Aston Villa · EFL Cup | 1-3 | L |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Brighton · Premier League | 0-5 | L |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Manchester City · Premier League | 0-1 | L |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Hull City · Premier League | 0-1 | L |
| Aug 25, 2026 | Plymouth · EFL Cup | 4-2 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nottingham Forest | 11 | 5 | 4 |
| Coventry | 20 | 0 | 4 |
Head-to-head
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 3 wins for Nottingham Forest, 2 for Coventry and 0 draws.
Out and doubtful
Nottingham Forest
- N. Milenkovic (out)
- N. Savona (out)
- Cunha (out)
Coventry
- A. Amenda (out)
- T. Awoniyi (out)
- J. Eccles (out)
- K. Kesler-Hayden (out)
- L. Woolfenden (out)
Other matches in this competition
- Brentford 3-0 ChelseaSep 18, 2026
- Tottenham 2-3 Aston VillaSep 19, 2026
- Brighton 3-0 ArsenalSep 19, 2026
- Everton 1-0 IpswichSep 19, 2026
- Newcastle 2-1 Hull CitySep 19, 2026
- Leeds 0-0 Crystal PalaceSep 20, 2026
- Manchester City 5-3 SunderlandSep 20, 2026
- Bournemouth 0-1 LiverpoolSep 20, 2026
- Fulham 1-1 Manchester UnitedSep 20, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Nottingham Forest vs Coventry prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Nottingham Forest a 59% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Coventry 18%. Nottingham Forest are therefore favourites. Final score: 0-1.
What is the most likely correct score for Nottingham Forest vs Coventry?
1-0 (11.8%), followed by 2-0 (10.8%), 1-1 (10.7%), 2-1 (9.8%) and 3-0 (6.6%).
Will both teams score in Nottingham Forest vs Coventry?
The probability that both Nottingham Forest and Coventry score is 50%. Nottingham Forest have a 40% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Coventry 16%.
How many goals should we expect in Nottingham Forest vs Coventry?
The model expects 2.75 goals (1.84 for Nottingham Forest, 0.91 for Coventry). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 76%, over 2.5 goals 52%, over 3.5 goals 30%.
When and where is Nottingham Forest vs Coventry played?
Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 17:30 (UK time), Premier League, matchday 5. Venue: City Ground, Nottingham.
What form are Nottingham Forest and Coventry in?
Nottingham Forest: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 6 conceded). Coventry: 1 win, 0 draws and 4 defeats in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 12 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Nottingham Forest and Coventry?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 3 wins for Nottingham Forest, 2 for Coventry and 0 draws.
What was the Nottingham Forest vs Coventry result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Nottingham Forest 0-1 Coventry. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Nottingham Forest (59%), while victory for Coventry was rated at only 18%. The final score ranked 8th among the most likely scorelines (5.8%), behind 1-0. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (50%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (52%): missed.
How is the Nottingham Forest vs Coventry prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.84 for Nottingham Forest, 0.91 for Coventry) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Nottingham Forest predictions
- All Coventry predictions
- Premier League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology