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Brasileirão Série ABrasileirão Série A· Kick-off : Wednesday, November 4, 2026, 22:30 (UK time)

Atletico Paranaense vs Vasco DA Gama: 1-3 result and AI prediction review

Atletico ParanaenseAtletico Paranaense1 – 3Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome missedExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 1-0

Final score: Atletico Paranaense 1-3 Vasco DA Gama. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Atletico Paranaense (67%), while victory for Vasco DA Gama was rated at only 13%. The model considered this score unlikely (0.8%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (44%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (50%): correct.

Match analysis

Atletico Paranaense vs Vasco DA Gama was played on Wednesday, November 4, 2026 (Brasileirão Série A, matchday 34). Venue: Arena da Baixada, Curitiba. Before kick-off, our model gave Atletico Paranaense a 67% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Vasco DA Gama 13%. The most likely correct score is 1-0 (13.4%), ahead of 2-0 (13.2%) and 1-1 (9.7%).

Atletico Paranaense have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 7 and conceding 8. Vasco DA Gama have won just one of their last 5 matches (0 draws, 4 defeats), scoring 5 and conceding 11. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Atletico Paranaense score 1.40 and concede 1.60 goals per game; Vasco DA Gama score 1.00 and concede 2.20. In the table, Atletico Paranaense sit 5th with 54 points from 33 games, Vasco DA Gama 14th with 38 points from 32. 9 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Atletico Paranaense have averaged 1.46 xG (expected goals) per match, against 0.97 for Vasco DA Gama.

In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Atletico Paranaense, 3 for Vasco DA Gama and 0 draws. The most recent ended Vasco DA Gama 1-0 Atletico Paranaense (May 11, 2026). Atletico Paranaense out or doubtful: Claudinho and C. Teran. Vasco DA Gama: Cauan Barros, C. Cuesta, A. Gomez and Mateus Carvalho. In double chance terms, "Atletico Paranaense or draw" stands at 87%, "Vasco DA Gama or draw" at 33% and "no draw" at 80%.

In short : Atletico Paranaense are tipped by our AI model in this Atletico Paranaense v Vasco DA Gama (67%). In the table, Atletico Paranaense (5th, 54 pts) host Vasco DA Gama (14th, 38 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

67%
Atletico Paranaense (Win)
20%
Draw
13%
Vasco DA Gama (Win)

Double chance

87%
Atletico Paranaense or draw
33%
Vasco DA Gama or draw
80%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Atletico Paranaense – Vasco DA Gama. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (13.4%); the 5 scores below add up to 54% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Atletico Paranaense 1-0 Vasco DA Gama13.4%
Atletico Paranaense 2-0 Vasco DA Gama13.2%
Atletico Paranaense 1-1 Vasco DA Gama9.7%
Atletico Paranaense 2-1 Vasco DA Gama9.5%
Atletico Paranaense 3-0 Vasco DA Gama8.6%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

The model expects 2.68 goals in total (1.96 for Atletico Paranaense, 0.72 for Vasco DA Gama): over 2.5 goals has a 50% probability and both teams to score 44%. Atletico Paranaense keep a clean sheet in 49% of scenarios, Vasco DA Gama in 14%.

Probability
Atletico Paranaense expected goals1.96
Vasco DA Gama expected goals0.72
Both teams to score44%
Over 1.5 goals75%
Over 2.5 goals50%
Over 3.5 goals28%
Atletico Paranaense clean sheet49%
Vasco DA Gama clean sheet14%

Recent form

Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.

Atletico Paranaense

DateOpponentScore
Oct 30, 2026Gremio · Brasileirão Série A0-2L
Oct 24, 2026Vitoria · Brasileirão Série A1-1D
Oct 17, 2026Palmeiras · Brasileirão Série A0-2L
Oct 12, 2026Chapecoense-sc · Brasileirão Série A4-1W
Oct 9, 2026Atletico-MG · Brasileirão Série A2-2D

Vasco DA Gama

DateOpponentScore
Nov 1, 2026Palmeiras · Copa do Brasil0-1L
Oct 29, 2026Flamengo · Brasileirão Série A1-4L
Oct 24, 2026Corinthians · Brasileirão Série A3-2W
Oct 21, 2026Boca Juniors · CONMEBOL Sudamericana1-3L
Oct 18, 2026Sao Paulo · Brasileirão Série A0-1L

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Atletico Paranaense55433
Vasco DA Gama143832

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
May 11, 2026Vasco DA Gama 1-0 Atletico ParanaenseSerie A
Sep 12, 2024Atletico Paranaense 2-1 Vasco DA GamaCopa Do Brasil
Aug 30, 2024Vasco DA Gama 2-1 Atletico ParanaenseCopa Do Brasil
Aug 27, 2024Vasco DA Gama 2-1 Atletico ParanaenseSerie A
May 5, 2024Atletico Paranaense 1-0 Vasco DA GamaSerie A

Out and doubtful

Atletico Paranaense

  • Claudinho (out)
  • C. Teran (out)

Vasco DA Gama

  • Cauan Barros (out)
  • C. Cuesta (out)
  • A. Gomez (out)
  • Mateus Carvalho (out)

Most regular starters

Atletico Paranaense

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • Luiz Gustavo5/5
  • Mycael5/5
  • Arthur Dias4/5
  • Gilberto4/5
  • Jadson4/5
  • Joao Cruz4/5
  • K. Viveros4/5
  • Leozinho4/5
  • S. Mendoza4/5
  • F. Aguirre3/5
  • L. Esquivel3/5

Vasco DA Gama

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • A. Lescano5/5
  • Bruno Duarte4/5
  • Cuiabano4/5
  • F. Colidio4/5
  • Robert Renan4/5
  • S. Sosa4/5
  • Thiago Mendes4/5
  • A. Saldivia3/5
  • Leo Jardim3/5
  • Paulo Henrique3/5
  • A. Gomez2/5

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Atletico Paranaense vs Vasco DA Gama prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Atletico Paranaense a 67% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Vasco DA Gama 13%. Atletico Paranaense are therefore favourites. Final score: 1-3.

What is the most likely correct score for Atletico Paranaense vs Vasco DA Gama?

1-0 (13.4%), followed by 2-0 (13.2%), 1-1 (9.7%), 2-1 (9.5%) and 3-0 (8.6%).

Will both teams score in Atletico Paranaense vs Vasco DA Gama?

The probability that both Atletico Paranaense and Vasco DA Gama score is 44%. Atletico Paranaense have a 49% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Vasco DA Gama 14%.

How many goals should we expect in Atletico Paranaense vs Vasco DA Gama?

The model expects 2.68 goals (1.96 for Atletico Paranaense, 0.72 for Vasco DA Gama). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 75%, over 2.5 goals 50%, over 3.5 goals 28%.

When and where is Atletico Paranaense vs Vasco DA Gama played?

Wednesday, November 4, 2026 at 22:30 (UK time), Brasileirão Série A, matchday 34. Venue: Arena da Baixada, Curitiba.

What form are Atletico Paranaense and Vasco DA Gama in?

Atletico Paranaense: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 8 conceded). Vasco DA Gama: 1 win, 0 draws and 4 defeats in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 11 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Paranaense and Vasco DA Gama?

In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Atletico Paranaense, 3 for Vasco DA Gama and 0 draws. The most recent ended Vasco DA Gama 1-0 Atletico Paranaense (May 11, 2026).

What was the Atletico Paranaense vs Vasco DA Gama result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Atletico Paranaense 1-3 Vasco DA Gama. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Atletico Paranaense (67%), while victory for Vasco DA Gama was rated at only 13%. The model considered this score unlikely (0.8%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (44%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (50%): correct.

How is the Atletico Paranaense vs Vasco DA Gama prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.96 for Atletico Paranaense, 0.72 for Vasco DA Gama) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained