Brasileirão Série A· Kick-off : Wednesday, November 4, 2026, 22:30 (UK time)
Flamengo vs Gremio: 3-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Flamengo 3-1 Gremio. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Flamengo at 83%. The final score ranked 4th among the most likely scorelines (8.0%), behind 3-0. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (51%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (74%): correct.
Match analysis
Flamengo and Gremio met on Wednesday, November 4, 2026, a Brasileirão Série A, matchday 34 fixture. Venue: Estádio do Maracanã, Rio de Janeiro. Before kick-off, our model gave Flamengo a 83% chance of winning, the draw 11% and Gremio 6%. On the correct score, 3-0 comes out on top (10.4%), followed by 2-0 (10.0%) and 4-0 (8.0%).
Flamengo are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (3 wins, 2 draws), scoring 10 and conceding 3. Over their last 5 matches, Gremio have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 8 and conceding 5. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Flamengo score 2.00 and concede 0.60 goals per game; Gremio score 1.60 and concede 1.00. In the table, Flamengo sit 1st with 73 points from 33 games, Gremio 17th with 37 points from 33. 16 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Flamengo have averaged 1.75 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.48 for Gremio.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 3 wins for Flamengo, 1 for Gremio and 1 draw. The most recent ended Gremio 0-1 Flamengo (May 10, 2026). Flamengo out or doubtful: Danilo, S. Niguez, G. Plata (suspended), A. Valencia and Lucas Paqueta (doubtful). Gremio: Carlos Vinicius (suspended), Danilo Barbosa, Diego Caito, J. Nardoni, C. Pavon, Weverton (suspended) and J. Cabral (doubtful). In double chance terms, "Flamengo or draw" stands at 94%, "Gremio or draw" at 17% and "no draw" at 89%.
In short : Our model backs Flamengo to edge Gremio (83% probability). In the table, Flamengo (1st, 73 pts) host Gremio (17th, 37 pts). The model expects goals (over 2.5 at 74%).
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Flamengo – Gremio. 3-0 is the single most likely scoreline (10.4%); the 5 scores below add up to 44% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Flamengo 3-0 Gremio | 10.4% |
| Flamengo 2-0 Gremio | 10.0% |
| Flamengo 4-0 Gremio | 8.0% |
| Flamengo 3-1 Gremio | 8.0% |
| Flamengo 2-1 Gremio | 7.7% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 3.10 expected goals for Flamengo and 0.77 for Gremio, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 74% and "both teams to score" at 51%. Goals look likely in this one. Flamengo keep a clean sheet in 46% of scenarios, Gremio in 5%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Flamengo expected goals | 3.10 |
| Gremio expected goals | 0.77 |
| Both teams to score | 51% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 90% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 74% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 54% |
| Flamengo clean sheet | 46% |
| Gremio clean sheet | 5% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Flamengo
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 29, 2026 | Vasco DA Gama · Brasileirão Série A | 4-1 | W |
| Oct 26, 2026 | Atletico-MG · Brasileirão Série A | 3-2 | W |
| Oct 23, 2026 | Estudiantes L.P. · CONMEBOL Libertadores | 0-0 | D |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Bahia · Brasileirão Série A | 3-0 | W |
| Oct 16, 2026 | Estudiantes L.P. · CONMEBOL Libertadores | 0-0 | D |
Gremio
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2026 | Atletico-MG · Copa do Brasil | 2-0 | W |
| Oct 30, 2026 | Atletico Paranaense · Brasileirão Série A | 2-0 | W |
| Oct 26, 2026 | Coritiba · Brasileirão Série A | 1-0 | W |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Cruzeiro · Brasileirão Série A | 2-4 | L |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Internacional · Brasileirão Série A | 1-1 | D |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flamengo | 1 | 73 | 33 |
| Gremio | 17 | 37 | 33 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Gremio 0-1 Flamengo | Serie A |
| Aug 31, 2025 | Flamengo 1-1 Gremio | Serie A |
| Apr 13, 2025 | Gremio 0-2 Flamengo | Serie A |
| Sep 22, 2024 | Gremio 3-2 Flamengo | Serie A |
| Jun 14, 2024 | Flamengo 2-1 Gremio | Serie A |
Out and doubtful
Flamengo
- Danilo (out)
- S. Niguez (out)
- G. Plata (suspended)
- A. Valencia (out)
- Lucas Paqueta (doubtful)
Gremio
- Carlos Vinicius (suspended)
- Danilo Barbosa (out)
- Diego Caito (out)
- J. Nardoni (out)
- C. Pavon (out)
- Weverton (suspended)
- J. Cabral (doubtful)
Most regular starters
Flamengo
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Samuel Lino5/5
- A. Rossi4/5
- E. Pulgar4/5
- Emerson Royal4/5
- Jorginho4/5
- Alex Sandro3/5
- J. Carrascal3/5
- Léo Ortiz3/5
- Léo Pereira3/5
- Pedro3/5
- G. Plata2/5
Gremio
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- F. Amuzu5/5
- M. Villasanti5/5
- Marlon5/5
- Weverton5/5
- Carlos Vinicius4/5
- Gustavo Martins4/5
- Wallace4/5
- C. Pavon3/5
- Diego Caito3/5
- E. Noriega3/5
- Danilo Barbosa2/5
Other matches in this competition
- RB Bragantino 2-1 SantosNov 2, 2026
- Chapecoense-sc 1-2 MirassolNov 3, 2026
- Internacional 1-0 CoritibaNov 4, 2026
- Atletico Paranaense 1-3 Vasco DA GamaNov 4, 2026
- Sao Paulo 0-0 CorinthiansNov 5, 2026
- Botafogo 1-0 Atletico-MGNov 5, 2026
- Palmeiras 6-1 RemoNov 5, 2026
- Cruzeiro 3-2 BahiaNov 6, 2026
- Vitoria 0-3 FluminenseNov 6, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Flamengo vs Gremio prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Flamengo a 83% chance of winning, the draw 11% and Gremio 6%. Flamengo are therefore favourites. Final score: 3-1.
What is the most likely correct score for Flamengo vs Gremio?
3-0 (10.4%), followed by 2-0 (10.0%), 4-0 (8.0%), 3-1 (8.0%) and 2-1 (7.7%).
Will both teams score in Flamengo vs Gremio?
The probability that both Flamengo and Gremio score is 51%. Flamengo have a 46% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Gremio 5%.
How many goals should we expect in Flamengo vs Gremio?
The model expects 3.87 goals (3.10 for Flamengo, 0.77 for Gremio). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 90%, over 2.5 goals 74%, over 3.5 goals 54%.
When and where is Flamengo vs Gremio played?
Wednesday, November 4, 2026 at 22:30 (UK time), Brasileirão Série A, matchday 34. Venue: Estádio do Maracanã, Rio de Janeiro.
What form are Flamengo and Gremio in?
Flamengo: 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 3 conceded). Gremio: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 5 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Gremio?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 3 wins for Flamengo, 1 for Gremio and 1 draw. The most recent ended Gremio 0-1 Flamengo (May 10, 2026).
What was the Flamengo vs Gremio result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Flamengo 3-1 Gremio. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Flamengo at 83%. The final score ranked 4th among the most likely scorelines (8.0%), behind 3-0. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (51%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (74%): correct.
How is the Flamengo vs Gremio prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (3.10 for Flamengo, 0.77 for Gremio) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Flamengo predictions
- All Gremio predictions
- Brasileirão Série A predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology