Brasileirão Série A· Kick-off : Thursday, November 5, 2026, 00:30 (UK time)
Botafogo vs Atletico-MG: 1-0 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Botafogo 1-0 Atletico-MG. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Botafogo at 36%. The final score ranked 2nd among the most likely scorelines (11.0%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (49%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (43%): correct.
Match analysis
Botafogo and Atletico-MG met on Thursday, November 5, 2026, a Brasileirão Série A, matchday 34 fixture. Venue: Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos, Rio de Janeiro. Before kick-off, our model gave Botafogo a 36% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Atletico-MG 36%. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (13.1%), followed by 1-0 (11.0%) and 0-1 (10.9%).
Botafogo have won just one of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 3 defeats), scoring 4 and conceding 8. Atletico-MG have won just one of their last 5 matches (0 draws, 4 defeats), scoring 3 and conceding 8. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Botafogo score 0.80 and concede 1.60 goals per game; Atletico-MG score 0.60 and concede 1.60. In the table, Botafogo sit 13th with 39 points from 33 games, Atletico-MG 7th with 50 points from 33. 6 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Botafogo have averaged 1.20 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.19 for Atletico-MG.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Botafogo, 1 for Atletico-MG and 2 draws. The most recent ended Atletico-MG 1-1 Botafogo (May 10, 2026). Botafogo out or doubtful: J. Barrera, Danilo Santos, Kaio Pantaleao and Arthur Chaves (doubtful). Atletico-MG: T. Borbas, M. Cassierra, Fred, Reinier and Ruan Tressoldi. In double chance terms, "Botafogo or draw" stands at 64%, "Atletico-MG or draw" at 64% and "no draw" at 72%.
In short : An evenly-matched game between Botafogo and Atletico-MG: our model sees no clear favourite. In the table, Botafogo (13th, 39 pts) host Atletico-MG (7th, 50 pts). Both teams could find the net (BTTS at 49%).
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Botafogo – Atletico-MG. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (13.1%); the 5 scores below add up to 52% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Botafogo 1-1 Atletico-MG | 13.1% |
| Botafogo 1-0 Atletico-MG | 11.0% |
| Botafogo 0-1 Atletico-MG | 10.9% |
| Botafogo 0-0 Atletico-MG | 9.2% |
| Botafogo 2-1 Atletico-MG | 7.9% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.20 expected goals for Botafogo and 1.19 for Atletico-MG, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 43% and "both teams to score" at 49%. Botafogo keep a clean sheet in 30% of scenarios, Atletico-MG in 30%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Botafogo expected goals | 1.20 |
| Atletico-MG expected goals | 1.19 |
| Both teams to score | 49% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22% |
| Botafogo clean sheet | 30% |
| Atletico-MG clean sheet | 30% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Botafogo
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 29, 2026 | Remo · Brasileirão Série A | 1-2 | L |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Internacional · Brasileirão Série A | 0-3 | L |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Chapecoense-sc · Brasileirão Série A | 1-0 | W |
| Oct 12, 2026 | Coritiba · Brasileirão Série A | 1-1 | D |
| Oct 8, 2026 | Vasco DA Gama · Brasileirão Série A | 1-2 | L |
Atletico-MG
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2026 | Gremio · Copa do Brasil | 0-2 | L |
| Oct 29, 2026 | Cruzeiro · Brasileirão Série A | 0-1 | L |
| Oct 26, 2026 | Flamengo · Brasileirão Série A | 2-3 | L |
| Oct 21, 2026 | Atletico Torque · CONMEBOL Sudamericana | 0-2 | L |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Coritiba · Brasileirão Série A | 1-0 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Botafogo | 13 | 39 | 33 |
| Atletico-MG | 7 | 50 | 33 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Atletico-MG 1-1 Botafogo | Serie A |
| Sep 20, 2025 | Botafogo 1-0 Atletico-MG | Serie A |
| Apr 20, 2025 | Atletico-MG 1-0 Botafogo | Serie A |
| Nov 30, 2024 | Atletico-MG 1-3 Botafogo | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
| Nov 21, 2024 | Atletico-MG 0-0 Botafogo | Serie A |
Out and doubtful
Botafogo
- J. Barrera (out)
- Danilo Santos (out)
- Kaio Pantaleao (out)
- Arthur Chaves (doubtful)
Atletico-MG
- T. Borbas (out)
- M. Cassierra (out)
- Fred (out)
- Reinier (out)
- Ruan Tressoldi (out)
Most regular starters
Botafogo
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Alex Telles5/5
- Gabriel Batista5/5
- Matheus Martins5/5
- N. Ferraresi5/5
- Vitinho5/5
- C. Medina4/5
- Danilo Santos4/5
- H. Ziyech4/5
- Marcal4/5
- Allan3/5
- Arthur Cabral3/5
Atletico-MG
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Gabriel Delfim5/5
- A. Franco4/5
- Lyanco4/5
- Victor Hugo4/5
- Bernard3/5
- Igor Gomes3/5
- Maycon3/5
- Natanael3/5
- K. Castaño2/5
- R. Lodi2/5
- Reinier2/5
Other matches in this competition
- RB Bragantino 2-1 SantosNov 2, 2026
- Chapecoense-sc 1-2 MirassolNov 3, 2026
- Internacional 1-0 CoritibaNov 4, 2026
- Atletico Paranaense 1-3 Vasco DA GamaNov 4, 2026
- Flamengo 3-1 GremioNov 4, 2026
- Sao Paulo 0-0 CorinthiansNov 5, 2026
- Palmeiras 6-1 RemoNov 5, 2026
- Cruzeiro 3-2 BahiaNov 6, 2026
- Vitoria 0-3 FluminenseNov 6, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Botafogo vs Atletico-MG prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Botafogo a 36% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Atletico-MG 36%. Botafogo are therefore slight favourites. Final score: 1-0.
What is the most likely correct score for Botafogo vs Atletico-MG?
1-1 (13.1%), followed by 1-0 (11.0%), 0-1 (10.9%), 0-0 (9.2%) and 2-1 (7.9%).
Will both teams score in Botafogo vs Atletico-MG?
The probability that both Botafogo and Atletico-MG score is 49%. Botafogo have a 30% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Atletico-MG 30%.
How many goals should we expect in Botafogo vs Atletico-MG?
The model expects 2.39 goals (1.20 for Botafogo, 1.19 for Atletico-MG). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 69%, over 2.5 goals 43%, over 3.5 goals 22%.
When and where is Botafogo vs Atletico-MG played?
Thursday, November 5, 2026 at 00:30 (UK time), Brasileirão Série A, matchday 34. Venue: Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos, Rio de Janeiro.
What form are Botafogo and Atletico-MG in?
Botafogo: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 8 conceded). Atletico-MG: 1 win, 0 draws and 4 defeats in their last 5 matches (3 scored, 8 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Botafogo and Atletico-MG?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Botafogo, 1 for Atletico-MG and 2 draws. The most recent ended Atletico-MG 1-1 Botafogo (May 10, 2026).
What was the Botafogo vs Atletico-MG result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Botafogo 1-0 Atletico-MG. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Botafogo at 36%. The final score ranked 2nd among the most likely scorelines (11.0%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (49%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (43%): correct.
How is the Botafogo vs Atletico-MG prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.20 for Botafogo, 1.19 for Atletico-MG) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Botafogo predictions
- All Atletico-MG predictions
- Brasileirão Série A predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology