Brasileirão Série A· Kick-off : Friday, November 6, 2026, 00:30 (UK time)
Cruzeiro vs Bahia: 3-2 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Cruzeiro 3-2 Bahia. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Cruzeiro at 58%. The model considered this score unlikely (3.3%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (55%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (56%): correct.
Match analysis
Cruzeiro and Bahia met on Friday, November 6, 2026, a Brasileirão Série A, matchday 34 fixture. Venue: Governador Magalhães Pinto, Belo Horizonte. Before kick-off, our model gave Cruzeiro a 58% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Bahia 20%. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (10.4%), followed by 1-0 (10.1%) and 2-1 (9.9%).
Over their last 5 matches, Cruzeiro have 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 10 and conceding 6. Over their last 5 matches, Bahia have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 5 and conceding 7. Cruzeiro therefore arrive in far better shape than Bahia. On average Cruzeiro score 2.00 and concede 1.20 goals per game; Bahia score 1.00 and concede 1.40. In the table, Cruzeiro sit 3rd with 57 points from 33 games, Bahia 6th with 53 points from 33. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Cruzeiro have averaged 1.95 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.51 for Bahia.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 3 wins for Cruzeiro, 1 for Bahia and 1 draw. The most recent ended Bahia 1-2 Cruzeiro (May 10, 2026). Cruzeiro out or doubtful: Felipe Morais, Gabriel Pec, Matheus Pereira (suspended), L. Sinisterra, L. Villalba (suspended), William Furtado (suspended) and Joao Marcelo (doubtful). Bahia: Leo Vieira. In double chance terms, "Cruzeiro or draw" stands at 80%, "Bahia or draw" at 42% and "no draw" at 78%.
In short : Cruzeiro are tipped by our AI model in this Cruzeiro v Bahia (58%). In the table, Cruzeiro (3rd, 57 pts) host Bahia (6th, 53 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-1.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Cruzeiro – Bahia. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (10.4%); the 5 scores below add up to 46% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Cruzeiro 1-1 Bahia | 10.4% |
| Cruzeiro 1-0 Bahia | 10.1% |
| Cruzeiro 2-1 Bahia | 9.9% |
| Cruzeiro 2-0 Bahia | 9.6% |
| Cruzeiro 3-1 Bahia | 6.3% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.91 expected goals for Cruzeiro and 1.03 for Bahia, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 56% and "both teams to score" at 55%. Cruzeiro keep a clean sheet in 36% of scenarios, Bahia in 15%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Cruzeiro expected goals | 1.91 |
| Bahia expected goals | 1.03 |
| Both teams to score | 55% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% |
| Cruzeiro clean sheet | 36% |
| Bahia clean sheet | 15% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Cruzeiro
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 29, 2026 | Atletico-MG · Brasileirão Série A | 1-0 | W |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Remo · Brasileirão Série A | 1-0 | W |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Gremio · Brasileirão Série A | 4-2 | W |
| Oct 13, 2026 | RB Bragantino · Brasileirão Série A | 2-4 | L |
| Oct 8, 2026 | Sao Paulo · Brasileirão Série A | 2-0 | W |
Bahia
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 29, 2026 | Sao Paulo · Brasileirão Série A | 3-2 | W |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Santos · Brasileirão Série A | 1-1 | D |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Flamengo · Brasileirão Série A | 0-3 | L |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Mirassol · Brasileirão Série A | 1-0 | W |
| Oct 9, 2026 | Palmeiras · Brasileirão Série A | 0-1 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cruzeiro | 3 | 57 | 33 |
| Bahia | 6 | 53 | 33 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Bahia 1-2 Cruzeiro | Serie A |
| Sep 16, 2025 | Bahia 1-2 Cruzeiro | Serie A |
| Apr 18, 2025 | Cruzeiro 3-0 Bahia | Serie A |
| Oct 19, 2024 | Cruzeiro 1-1 Bahia | Serie A |
| Jun 23, 2024 | Bahia 4-1 Cruzeiro | Serie A |
Out and doubtful
Cruzeiro
- Felipe Morais (out)
- Gabriel Pec (out)
- Matheus Pereira (suspended)
- L. Sinisterra (out)
- L. Villalba (suspended)
- William Furtado (suspended)
- Joao Marcelo (doubtful)
Bahia
- Leo Vieira (out)
Most regular starters
Cruzeiro
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Gerson5/5
- Jonathan Jesus5/5
- Kaio Jorge5/5
- Matheus Pereira5/5
- Otavio Costa5/5
- William Furtado5/5
- Joao Marcelo4/5
- K. Arroyo4/5
- L. Romero4/5
- Ze Lucas4/5
- L. Villalba3/5
Bahia
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Veliz5/5
- C. Olivera5/5
- David Duarte5/5
- Erick Pulga5/5
- Luciano Juba5/5
- Rodrigo5/5
- Ronaldo Strada5/5
- Jean Lucas4/5
- Marcos Victor4/5
- Nicolas Acevedo4/5
- M. Moreno3/5
Other matches in this competition
- RB Bragantino 2-1 SantosNov 2, 2026
- Chapecoense-sc 1-2 MirassolNov 3, 2026
- Internacional 1-0 CoritibaNov 4, 2026
- Atletico Paranaense 1-3 Vasco DA GamaNov 4, 2026
- Flamengo 3-1 GremioNov 4, 2026
- Sao Paulo 0-0 CorinthiansNov 5, 2026
- Botafogo 1-0 Atletico-MGNov 5, 2026
- Palmeiras 6-1 RemoNov 5, 2026
- Vitoria 0-3 FluminenseNov 6, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Cruzeiro vs Bahia prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Cruzeiro a 58% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Bahia 20%. Cruzeiro are therefore favourites. Final score: 3-2.
What is the most likely correct score for Cruzeiro vs Bahia?
1-1 (10.4%), followed by 1-0 (10.1%), 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.6%) and 3-1 (6.3%).
Will both teams score in Cruzeiro vs Bahia?
The probability that both Cruzeiro and Bahia score is 55%. Cruzeiro have a 36% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Bahia 15%.
How many goals should we expect in Cruzeiro vs Bahia?
The model expects 2.94 goals (1.91 for Cruzeiro, 1.03 for Bahia). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 79%, over 2.5 goals 56%, over 3.5 goals 34%.
When and where is Cruzeiro vs Bahia played?
Friday, November 6, 2026 at 00:30 (UK time), Brasileirão Série A, matchday 34. Venue: Governador Magalhães Pinto, Belo Horizonte.
What form are Cruzeiro and Bahia in?
Cruzeiro: 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 6 conceded). Bahia: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 7 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Cruzeiro and Bahia?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 3 wins for Cruzeiro, 1 for Bahia and 1 draw. The most recent ended Bahia 1-2 Cruzeiro (May 10, 2026).
What was the Cruzeiro vs Bahia result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Cruzeiro 3-2 Bahia. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Cruzeiro at 58%. The model considered this score unlikely (3.3%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (55%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (56%): correct.
How is the Cruzeiro vs Bahia prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.91 for Cruzeiro, 1.03 for Bahia) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Cruzeiro predictions
- All Bahia predictions
- Brasileirão Série A predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology