Serie B· Kick-off : Saturday, October 10, 2026, 14:00 (UK time)
Padova vs Carrarese prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Serie B, matchday 6: Padova vs Carrarese kicks off on Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 14:00 (UK time). Venue: Stadio Euganeo, Padova. With a 60% win probability, Padova go in as strong favourites against Carrarese (16%), with the draw rated at 24%. The most likely correct score is 1-0 (15.6%), ahead of 2-0 (12.8%) and 1-1 (11.1%).
Over their last 5 matches, Padova have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 4 and conceding 5. Carrarese have not won any of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 4 defeats), scoring 2 and conceding 6. Recent momentum is clearly with Padova. On average Padova score 0.80 and concede 1.00 goals per game; Carrarese score 0.40 and concede 1.20. In the table, Padova sit 6th with 7 points from 5 games, Carrarese 20th with 1 points from 5. 14 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Padova have averaged 1.02 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.15 for Carrarese.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Padova, 0 for Carrarese and 1 draw. The most recent ended Padova 1-0 Carrarese (Feb 10, 2026). In double chance terms, "Padova or draw" stands at 84%, "Carrarese or draw" at 40% and "no draw" at 76%.
In short : Padova are tipped by our AI model in this Padova v Carrarese (60%). In the table, Padova (6th, 7 pts) host Carrarese (20th, 1 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Padova – Carrarese. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (15.6%); the 5 scores below add up to 58% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Padova 1-0 Carrarese | 15.6% |
| Padova 2-0 Carrarese | 12.8% |
| Padova 1-1 Carrarese | 11.1% |
| Padova 0-0 Carrarese | 9.5% |
| Padova 2-1 Carrarese | 9.1% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.35 goals in total (1.64 for Padova, 0.71 for Carrarese): over 2.5 goals has a 42% probability and both teams to score 41%. A tight, low-scoring game is on the cards. Padova keep a clean sheet in 49% of scenarios, Carrarese in 19%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Padova expected goals | 1.64 |
| Carrarese expected goals | 0.71 |
| Both teams to score | 41% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21% |
| Padova clean sheet | 49% |
| Carrarese clean sheet | 19% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Padova
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 12, 2026 | Ascoli · Serie B | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Cremonese · Serie B | 1-3 | L |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Hellas Verona · Serie B | 1-1 | D |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Pisa · Serie B | 1-0 | W |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Udinese · Coppa Italia | 0-1 | L |
Carrarese
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 12, 2026 | Catanzaro · Serie B | 0-1 | L |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Empoli · Serie B | 0-1 | L |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Ascoli · Serie B | 1-1 | D |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Mantova · Serie B | 1-2 | L |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Torino · Coppa Italia | 0-1 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Padova | 6 | 7 | 5 |
| Carrarese | 20 | 1 | 5 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 10, 2026 | Padova 1-0 Carrarese | Serie B |
| Aug 31, 2025 | Carrarese 0-0 Padova | Serie B |
Out and doubtful
Padova
No absences reported.
Carrarese
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Padova
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Sorrentino5/5
- C. Pastina5/5
- E. Zuelli5/5
- L. Carissoni5/5
- M. Pompetti5/5
- A. Dellavalle4/5
- G. Caprari4/5
- P. Fusi4/5
- L. Moro3/5
- M. Lovato3/5
- F. Sgarbi2/5
Carrarese
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- F. Abiuso5/5
- F. Oliana5/5
- F. Ruggeri5/5
- G. Parlanti5/5
- J. Rouhi5/5
- F. Reale4/5
- L. Romani4/5
- M. Cisse4/5
- G. Garofani3/5
- N. Belloni3/5
- N. Schiavi2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
- Modena – Hellas VeronaOct 10, 2026
- Benevento – CesenaOct 10, 2026
- Vicenza Virtus – PisaOct 10, 2026
- Virtus Entella – Juve StabiaOct 10, 2026
- Empoli – PalermoOct 10, 2026
- Catanzaro – MantovaOct 10, 2026
- Sudtirol – AscoliOct 10, 2026
- Arezzo – CremoneseOct 10, 2026
- Avellino – SampdoriaOct 10, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Padova vs Carrarese prediction?
Our AI gives Padova a 60% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Carrarese 16%. Padova are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Padova vs Carrarese?
1-0 (15.6%), followed by 2-0 (12.8%), 1-1 (11.1%), 0-0 (9.5%) and 2-1 (9.1%).
Will both teams score in Padova vs Carrarese?
The probability that both Padova and Carrarese score is 41%. Padova have a 49% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Carrarese 19%.
How many goals should we expect in Padova vs Carrarese?
The model expects 2.35 goals (1.64 for Padova, 0.71 for Carrarese). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 68%, over 2.5 goals 42%, over 3.5 goals 21%.
When and where is Padova vs Carrarese played?
Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 14:00 (UK time), Serie B, matchday 6. Venue: Stadio Euganeo, Padova.
What form are Padova and Carrarese in?
Padova: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 5 conceded). Carrarese: 0 wins, 1 draw and 4 defeats in their last 5 matches (2 scored, 6 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Padova and Carrarese?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Padova, 0 for Carrarese and 1 draw. The most recent ended Padova 1-0 Carrarese (Feb 10, 2026).
How is the Padova vs Carrarese prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.64 for Padova, 0.71 for Carrarese) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Padova predictions
- All Carrarese predictions
- Serie B predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology