Taça de Portugal· Kick-off : Saturday, October 17, 2026, 17:00 (UK time)
Penafiel vs Leça prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Taça de Portugal: Penafiel vs Leça kicks off on Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 17:00 (UK time). Venue: Estadio Municipal 25 de Abril, Penafiel. Our model makes Penafiel clear favourites: a 66% chance of winning, against 20% for the draw and 14% for Leça. On the correct score, 2-0 comes out on top (12.0%), followed by 1-0 (11.7%) and 2-1 (9.7%).
Penafiel are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (4 wins, 1 draw), scoring 13 and conceding 5. Over their last 5 matches, Leça have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 7 and conceding 8. Penafiel therefore arrive in far better shape than Leça. On average Penafiel score 2.60 and concede 1.00 goals per game; Leça score 1.40 and concede 1.60.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Penafiel and Leça: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "Penafiel or draw" stands at 86%, "Leça or draw" at 34% and "no draw" at 80%.
In short : Our model backs Penafiel to edge Leça (66% probability). On recent form, Penafiel are in good shape (4 wins in 5) while Leça have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in 5. Both teams could find the net (BTTS at 48%).
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Penafiel – Leça. 2-0 is the single most likely scoreline (12.0%); the 5 scores below add up to 51% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Penafiel 2-0 Leça | 12.0% |
| Penafiel 1-0 Leça | 11.7% |
| Penafiel 2-1 Leça | 9.7% |
| Penafiel 1-1 Leça | 9.5% |
| Penafiel 3-0 Leça | 8.2% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 2.05 expected goals for Penafiel and 0.81 for Leça, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 55% and "both teams to score" at 48%. Penafiel keep a clean sheet in 45% of scenarios, Leça in 13%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Penafiel expected goals | 2.05 |
| Leça expected goals | 0.81 |
| Both teams to score | 48% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% |
| Penafiel clean sheet | 45% |
| Leça clean sheet | 13% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Penafiel
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 25, 2026 | Deportivo La Coruna · Club Friendlies | 2-2 | D |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Oliveirense · Taça de Portugal | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Felgueiras 1932 · Liga Portugal 2 | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Academica · Liga Portugal 2 | 4-1 | W |
| Aug 30, 2026 | FC Porto B · Liga Portugal 2 | 3-0 | W |
Leça
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 12, 2026 | Trofense · Liga 3 | 4-1 | W |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Fafe · Liga 3 | 0-3 | L |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Paredes · Liga 3 | 2-1 | W |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Guimaraes B · Liga 3 | 0-2 | L |
| Aug 9, 2026 | São João Ver · Liga 3 | 1-1 | D |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Penafiel and Leça: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
Penafiel
No absences reported.
Leça
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Penafiel
Starts over the last 4 matches (official line-ups).
- Davo4/4
- G. Negrao4/4
- J. Pinto4/4
- A. Pica3/4
- J. Sanchez3/4
- M. Svensson3/4
- Oliveira Miguel3/4
- T. Alloh3/4
- A. Carbonell2/4
- C. Moreira2/4
- F. Varela2/4
Leça
Starts over the last 4 matches (official line-ups).
- D. Ribeiro4/4
- Diego Fernandes4/4
- F. Balde4/4
- M. Paiva4/4
- N. Reis4/4
- R. Ferreira4/4
- C. Avelino3/4
- Nuno Pereira3/4
- A. Coutinho2/4
- B. Mesquita2/4
- Cassio Scheid2/4
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
- Recreativa de Lamelas – GuimaraesOct 17, 2026
- Atlético CP – VizelaOct 17, 2026
- Florgrade – PortimonenseOct 17, 2026
- Vianense – LeixoesOct 17, 2026
- Farense – AD Marco 09Oct 17, 2026
- Sanjoanense – NacionalOct 17, 2026
- União de Leiria – BragançaOct 17, 2026
- Louletano – Rio AveOct 17, 2026
- Academica – AmaranteOct 17, 2026
- CF Os Belenenses – AroucaOct 18, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Penafiel vs Leça prediction?
Our AI gives Penafiel a 66% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Leça 14%. Penafiel are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Penafiel vs Leça?
2-0 (12.0%), followed by 1-0 (11.7%), 2-1 (9.7%), 1-1 (9.5%) and 3-0 (8.2%).
Will both teams score in Penafiel vs Leça?
The probability that both Penafiel and Leça score is 48%. Penafiel have a 45% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Leça 13%.
How many goals should we expect in Penafiel vs Leça?
The model expects 2.86 goals (2.05 for Penafiel, 0.81 for Leça). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 78%, over 2.5 goals 55%, over 3.5 goals 32%.
When and where is Penafiel vs Leça played?
Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 17:00 (UK time), Taça de Portugal. Venue: Estadio Municipal 25 de Abril, Penafiel.
What form are Penafiel and Leça in?
Penafiel: 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (13 scored, 5 conceded). Leça: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 8 conceded).
How is the Penafiel vs Leça prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.05 for Penafiel, 0.81 for Leça) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Penafiel predictions
- All Leça predictions
- Taça de Portugal predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology