Taça de Portugal· Kick-off : Sunday, October 18, 2026, 14:00 (UK time)
CF Os Belenenses vs Arouca prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
CF Os Belenenses take on Arouca on Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 14:00 (UK time), a Taça de Portugal fixture. It is a tight call: 36% for CF Os Belenenses, 25% for the draw and 39% for Arouca. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (11.9%), followed by 0-1 (8.7%) and 1-2 (8.5%).
CF Os Belenenses are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (5 wins, 0 draws), scoring 14 and conceding 3. Over their last 5 matches, Arouca have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 7 and conceding 5. CF Os Belenenses therefore arrive in far better shape than Arouca. On average CF Os Belenenses score 2.80 and concede 0.60 goals per game; Arouca score 1.40 and concede 1.00.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between CF Os Belenenses and Arouca: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "CF Os Belenenses or draw" stands at 61%, "Arouca or draw" at 64% and "no draw" at 75%.
In short : CF Os Belenenses and Arouca meet in a wide-open clash with no clear favourite (draw at 25%). On recent form, CF Os Belenenses are in good shape (5 wins in 5) while Arouca have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-1.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as CF Os Belenenses – Arouca. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (11.9%); the 5 scores below add up to 46% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| CF Os Belenenses 1-1 Arouca | 11.9% |
| CF Os Belenenses 0-1 Arouca | 8.7% |
| CF Os Belenenses 1-2 Arouca | 8.5% |
| CF Os Belenenses 1-0 Arouca | 8.3% |
| CF Os Belenenses 2-1 Arouca | 8.2% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.37 expected goals for CF Os Belenenses and 1.43 for Arouca, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 53% and "both teams to score" at 57%. CF Os Belenenses keep a clean sheet in 24% of scenarios, Arouca in 25%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| CF Os Belenenses expected goals | 1.37 |
| Arouca expected goals | 1.43 |
| Both teams to score | 57% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% |
| CF Os Belenenses clean sheet | 24% |
| Arouca clean sheet | 25% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
CF Os Belenenses
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | Atlético CP · Liga 3 | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Vitória de Sernache · Liga 3 | 3-1 | W |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Lusitano Évora 1911 · Taça de Portugal | 2-1 | W |
| Aug 22, 2026 | União Santarém · Liga 3 | 5-0 | W |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Louletano · Liga 3 | 3-1 | W |
Arouca
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | Santa Clara · Primeira Liga | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 7, 2026 | Estoril · Primeira Liga | 0-0 | D |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Maritimo · Primeira Liga | 2-1 | W |
| Aug 23, 2026 | FC Porto · Primeira Liga | 0-2 | L |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Moreirense · Primeira Liga | 4-0 | W |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between CF Os Belenenses and Arouca: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
CF Os Belenenses
No absences reported.
Arouca
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
CF Os Belenenses
Starts over the last 3 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Afonso3/3
- Bruninho3/3
- D. Horta Leitao3/3
- E. Barros3/3
- G. Oliveira3/3
- Nuno Tomas3/3
- T. Morgado3/3
- Cesinha2/3
- Chamito2/3
- D. Monteiro2/3
- J. Lucas2/3
Arouca
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Trezza5/5
- E. van Ee5/5
- I. Barbero5/5
- I. De Arruabarrena5/5
- J. Fontan5/5
- N. Djouahra5/5
- O. Lebedenko5/5
- T. Fukui5/5
- Tiago Esgaio5/5
- J. Sanchez4/5
- P. Gozalbez3/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
- Alcochetense – MaritimoOct 18, 2026
- Fátima – Academico ViseuOct 18, 2026
- Felgueiras 1932 – FafeOct 18, 2026
- Tondela – AlvercaOct 18, 2026
- Fazendense – EstrelaOct 18, 2026
- Mafra – Santa ClaraOct 18, 2026
- AVS – MoreirenseOct 18, 2026
- Alpendorada – Casa PiaOct 18, 2026
- Salgueiros – EstorilOct 18, 2026
- Lusitânia Lourosa – Os LimianosOct 18, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the CF Os Belenenses vs Arouca prediction?
Our AI gives CF Os Belenenses a 36% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Arouca 39%. Arouca are therefore slight favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for CF Os Belenenses vs Arouca?
1-1 (11.9%), followed by 0-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.5%), 1-0 (8.3%) and 2-1 (8.2%).
Will both teams score in CF Os Belenenses vs Arouca?
The probability that both CF Os Belenenses and Arouca score is 57%. CF Os Belenenses have a 24% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Arouca 25%.
How many goals should we expect in CF Os Belenenses vs Arouca?
The model expects 2.80 goals (1.37 for CF Os Belenenses, 1.43 for Arouca). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 77%, over 2.5 goals 53%, over 3.5 goals 31%.
When and where is CF Os Belenenses vs Arouca played?
Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 14:00 (UK time), Taça de Portugal.
What form are CF Os Belenenses and Arouca in?
CF Os Belenenses: 5 wins, 0 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (14 scored, 3 conceded). Arouca: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 5 conceded).
How is the CF Os Belenenses vs Arouca prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.37 for CF Os Belenenses, 1.43 for Arouca) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All CF Os Belenenses predictions
- All Arouca predictions
- Taça de Portugal predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology