Taça de Portugal· Kick-off : Sunday, October 18, 2026, 15:00 (UK time)
Alpendorada vs Casa Pia prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Alpendorada take on Casa Pia on Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 15:00 (UK time), a Taça de Portugal fixture. Venue: Municipal Stadium Alpendorada, Alpendorada. It is a tight call: 34% for Alpendorada, 26% for the draw and 40% for Casa Pia. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (12.3%), followed by 0-1 (9.7%) and 1-0 (8.8%).
Alpendorada have won just one of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 3 defeats), scoring 6 and conceding 9. Casa Pia have won just one of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 3 defeats), scoring 3 and conceding 8. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Alpendorada score 1.20 and concede 1.80 goals per game; Casa Pia score 0.60 and concede 1.60.
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Alpendorada, 1 for Casa Pia and 0 draws. The most recent ended Alpendorada 0-3 Casa Pia (Nov 22, 2025). In double chance terms, "Alpendorada or draw" stands at 60%, "Casa Pia or draw" at 66% and "no draw" at 74%.
In short : An evenly-matched game between Alpendorada and Casa Pia: our model sees no clear favourite. On recent form, Alpendorada have 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses in 5 while Casa Pia have 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses in 5. Both teams could find the net (BTTS at 54%).
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Alpendorada – Casa Pia. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (12.3%); the 5 scores below add up to 47% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Alpendorada 1-1 Casa Pia | 12.3% |
| Alpendorada 0-1 Casa Pia | 9.7% |
| Alpendorada 1-0 Casa Pia | 8.8% |
| Alpendorada 1-2 Casa Pia | 8.6% |
| Alpendorada 2-1 Casa Pia | 7.8% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.27 expected goals for Alpendorada and 1.40 for Casa Pia, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 50% and "both teams to score" at 54%. Alpendorada keep a clean sheet in 25% of scenarios, Casa Pia in 28%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Alpendorada expected goals | 1.27 |
| Casa Pia expected goals | 1.40 |
| Both teams to score | 54% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% |
| Alpendorada clean sheet | 25% |
| Casa Pia clean sheet | 28% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Alpendorada
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | Machico · Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Sanjoanense · Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B | 1-3 | L |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Rebordosa · Taça de Portugal | 2-2 | D |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Camacha · Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B | 1-2 | L |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Guarda · Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B | 1-0 | W |
Casa Pia
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Estoril · Primeira Liga | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 12, 2026 | FC Porto · Primeira Liga | 1-4 | L |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Vitória SC · Primeira Liga | 0-0 | D |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Moreirense · Primeira Liga | 0-1 | L |
| Aug 24, 2026 | GIL Vicente · Primeira Liga | 0-2 | L |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 22, 2025 | Alpendorada 0-3 Casa Pia | Taça de Portugal |
Out and doubtful
Alpendorada
No absences reported.
Casa Pia
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Casa Pia
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- L. Ofori5/5
- A. Geraldes4/5
- D. Sousa4/5
- S. Clua4/5
- A. Gomes3/5
- A. Jatta3/5
- J. Rego3/5
- Kaly3/5
- P. Rosas3/5
- B. Pauwels2/5
- H. Araujo2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
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Frequently asked questions
What is the Alpendorada vs Casa Pia prediction?
Our AI gives Alpendorada a 34% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Casa Pia 40%. Casa Pia are therefore slight favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Alpendorada vs Casa Pia?
1-1 (12.3%), followed by 0-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (8.8%), 1-2 (8.6%) and 2-1 (7.8%).
Will both teams score in Alpendorada vs Casa Pia?
The probability that both Alpendorada and Casa Pia score is 54%. Alpendorada have a 25% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Casa Pia 28%.
How many goals should we expect in Alpendorada vs Casa Pia?
The model expects 2.67 goals (1.27 for Alpendorada, 1.40 for Casa Pia). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 75%, over 2.5 goals 50%, over 3.5 goals 28%.
When and where is Alpendorada vs Casa Pia played?
Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 15:00 (UK time), Taça de Portugal. Venue: Municipal Stadium Alpendorada, Alpendorada.
What form are Alpendorada and Casa Pia in?
Alpendorada: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 9 conceded). Casa Pia: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (3 scored, 8 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Alpendorada and Casa Pia?
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Alpendorada, 1 for Casa Pia and 0 draws. The most recent ended Alpendorada 0-3 Casa Pia (Nov 22, 2025).
How is the Alpendorada vs Casa Pia prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.27 for Alpendorada, 1.40 for Casa Pia) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Alpendorada predictions
- All Casa Pia predictions
- Taça de Portugal predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology